BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 rather chilly looking and best of all dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Even for CHS, it is looking much cooler than normal. From Tuesday night thru Saturday morning, the GFS only has the temperature getting out of the 30s Thursday afternoon when it gets into the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 For those who follow your traditional media outlets (TV, etc...) I have a feeling at least here in North Carolina that many of them will be lowering temps with tomorrow evening's news cycle. I've noticed a good portion of the news outlets here in the mountains are going higher for mid week than what the last several GFS runs have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think we can officially welcome the GFS to the party...no quick retreat on arctic cold... 18z Saturday (brief moderation) Sunday 18z (last of the moderation) Monday-week 7 am (Arctic blast #3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Great break down Marion as always. Could see some below zero reading here in the mountains again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Great break down Marion as always. Could see some below zero reading here in the mountains again. Thanks... given how the model is playing catch-up, I feel pretty confident now that you guys with some elevation may see some below zero again. Probably some single digits on one or two mornings here in McDowell County. Maybe not as extreme as 2 weeks ago but if this keeps trending colder we could be heading back into that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, with the first shot of cold progged to come across the Southeast in the next 24-36 hours, all the global models have lined up pretty well. It's looking like we will have at least an 8-10 day run of temperatures significantly below normal for a large part of the region. Shot #1 comes Wednesday, #2 on Friday/Saturday and a 3rd shot again on Monday...all three waves should keep temps 10-20 degrees below normal region-wide with the largest departures focused in Tennessee, North Carolina, Northern 2/3rds of South Carolina and Northern half of Georgia. Those days in between the waves of cold will at best get your respective areas temps back to within 5 degrees of normal for late January. Right now, there looks to be no extreme cold over a large area but the favored elevation dependent areas of the Carolinas, Tennessee and Georgia has a shot at getting close to zero once again. With how the models have been very erratic this winter in trying to constantly change in the medium to long range, my confidence is high enough through about the 8 day range. But afterwards there remains a lot of questions...however I will say that the GFS may continue to cool itself as we go through the long range, hints of that are already be shown in today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 yesterday nws had me at 35 for a high Wednesday now it has me at 28... as for Friday while there won't be extensive snowpack the snow that the air for pass over before it gets here can aid in colder temps than what is forecasted...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 AccuWeather has me with a low of 20 Friday Night, TWC 27, and NWS 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 AccuWeather has me with a low of 20 Friday Night, TWC 27, and NWS 25.Avg 24, u should take that and run, but it will trend colder, I'm gonna go 18 for Wayfart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Avg 24, u should take that and run, but it will trend colder, I'm gonna go 18 for WayfartThat would be colder than Arctic attack number 1. Apparently we only got down to 21 with the first 1. We have some warm bubble that keeps us warmer than all the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GSP has 13 for MBY, but we usually get a few degrees colder, so maybe 9-10, we hit 3 on the last outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GSP has 13 for MBY, but we usually get a few degrees colder, so maybe 9-10, we hit 3 on the last outbreak3! Wow. I figured you guys to have been colder but didn't think you almost hit zero.Speaking of the last event, my mom lives in the Tryon area and her koi pond froze over solid with the last event. First time that's occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That would be colder than Arctic attack number 1. Apparently we only got down to 21 with the first 1. We have some warm bubble that keeps us warmer than all the surrounding areas.21 was your backyard, or official from NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 21 was your backyard, or official from NWS?Official from NWS. My backyard was 18 along with all the surrounding areas. Don't know why the official is always so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Official from NWS. My backyard was 18 along with all the surrounding areas. Don't know why the official is always so high. It's that whole urban heat island thing. It's usually 5-10 degrees imby, just outside the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 06Z GFS this morning is quite cold for the remainder of the week. According to meteostar's numbers, Hickory goes below freezing this evening and won't be back above that mark until Saturday around noon. That's some long duration cold. And, no precipitation before truncation on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's that whole urban heat island thing. It's usually 5-10 degrees imby, just outside the city That and elevation dependent. His and your "official" temp gauge could be a few feet higher than your gauges. Since the coldest of cold usually settles in the lowest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looking at the morning data and now the 12z GFS, it seems to be honing in on Thursday and Friday being very cold for the I-40 corridor in North Carolina. High's both days in the mid 20's (mountains, northern foothills and Triad) to around 30 in Charlotte and maybe above freezing I-95 and east. Widespread teens on Thursday morning across all of North Carolina and starting to see single digits (7-9 above) showing up for the Western half of North Carolina for Friday morning. This is going to be a pretty significant arctic outbreak...one thing of concern to me is that since we won't be seeing below zero temps and widespread single digits like we did 2 weeks ago, that some are taking this as being "run of the mill cold" which this by no means is average sustained cold for the Upper Southeast standards. Folks have to remember that 2 weeks ago was roughly a 36 hour event that provided the type of airmass that you see maybe once every 25 years...what's coming this week while technically not as cold at one single point is still nothing to sneeze at. As I mentioned when this thread started, longevity of this cold will be the bigger story that comes out of this. EDIT: BTW, do you remember on Sunday how the GFS said we would be moderating by early next week? haha! lookie that what we have here just prior to truncation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I was thinking that it's kind of funny that there isn't more talk about the upcoming cold but I understand why. Any other year it would be big news but in light of the blast we had a few weeks ago this is nothing. Still, the GFS shows me with a day in the 20s and another around 30 with lows around 12 and 15. I would be willing to bet that I hit single digits on one of those nights if trends keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 I was thinking that it's kind of funny that there isn't more talk about the upcoming cold but I understand why. Any other year it would be big news but in light of the blast we had a few weeks ago this is nothing. Still, the GFS shows me with a day in the 20s and another around 30 with lows around 12 and 15. I would be willing to bet that I hit single digits on one of those nights if trends keep up. With the hour 192 map I posted and given the average model error 8 days out, it wouldn't take a whole lot to get the SoApps Region and North Georgia into some of that serious cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looking at tonight's model data, namely the 0z GFS, Friday morning looks to provide a lot of single digits for the Western 3rd of North Carolina, Upstate SC and Northeast GA...and areas of elevation could fall below zero. Looking at data aloft, 850's are going to run in excess of -20 across parts of the Upper Southeast US. One has to wonder with how local gov't entities handled the arctic chill 2 weeks ago, we may see a lot of the public education jurisdictions impliment a cold weather delay policy on Friday. Areas outside of the specific region mentioned will also feel the effects of this second outbreak but as of right now it looks like the worst weather will be centered in the Southern Appalachians. This is only going to be start of an extended period of much below temps...I hope for everyone they have all their plumbing fixtures secured and all sources of heating in working condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 NWS RAH was advertising what they referred to as temperatures crashing earlier yesterday. We dropped 8 degrees in a half hour at 3:30, but not sure that was more than a fender bender. At 4 we began a slow drift to where we are now at 25.9 from the 37 at 4. Was this what everyone expected? I look at crashing as something more serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Missed the projected low in charlotte by 8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Missed the projected low in charlotte by 8 degrees.I think cloud cover helped with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Missed the projected low in charlotte by 8 degrees. Yeah, 5 degrees warmer than projected IMBY. However, I must say that the 06Z GFS is once again downright frigid. According to it, Hickory doesn't make it out of the 20s until Saturday afternoon! Single digit lows are likely again Thursday night. I get a brief "warm-up" to low 40s on Saturday,Sunday and Monday, followed by another three-day, sub-freezing streak from Tuesday through Friday. The projected high on Tuesday is 20! 20! Fantasy snow is also in the forecast, just after truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 10 degrees here in Northwest Cherokee, 5 colder than the forecast, which is normal for MBY. 5 degree wc. So not quite as cold as earlier this month, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Cold here 30 miles NE of Atlanta. 14.1F and still falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Almost the exact same post with the projected temp IMBY. The 6gfs keeps me below 32 until Saturday evening were is it shows upper 40's. Yeah, 5 degrees warmer than projected IMBY. However, I must say that the 06Z GFS is once again downright frigid. According to it, Hickory doesn't make it out of the 20s until Saturday afternoon! Single digit lows are likely again Thursday night. I get a brief "warm-up" to low 40s on Saturday,Sunday and Monday, followed by another three-day, sub-freezing streak from Tuesday through Friday. The projected high on Tuesday is 20! 20! Fantasy snow is also in the forecast, just after truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Forecasted high's for the week at CAE are....40,46,36,48 and 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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