Marion_NC_WX Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Well, all of the global computer models and ensembles are now starting to focus in on what could be our second major arctic outbreak this month and all indications are that the Southeast US will not be spared... The following are maps from Days 5, 7 and 10 on today's 12z GFS operational. The European and its ensembles were the first to hint at a late month outbreak about a week ago. But in the last couple days the GFS has fallen into line and has really sharpened the cold that is coming especially days 5-10... As you can see on the maps we will have a classic +PNA pattern, infact by Day 10 is could possibly link all the way across the North Pole with Eastern European ridge and form a block that could serve the same purpose as what we would see during an -NAO phase. If this happens as modeled the result will be a second massive dump of bitter cold air. Day 5 Day 7: PNA ridge begins to really grow into Alaska Day 10: PNA links with Eastern European ridge to create a block over the Pole Now...there will be a couple different things with this outbreak in relation to our first event 10 days ago... First, with the PNA ridge, there is no Pacific flow that keeps everything progressive. Second, notice by day 10 how the 500mb look would take any energy from the Northwest Territories of Canada due south through the US Rockies and then Southeast towards Texas. That means we could finally get an active southern stream in cooperation with the cold air to provide winter weather opportunities for areas of the Southeast. That, right now looks to be the evolution of what may be coming of the next 7-10 days...the intent of this thread is to follow the extent of the cold that may be coming. Any storm specific info will remain in the general pattern thread and of course once confidence becomes high on a possible winter storm, a specific thread will be created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Good post, Marion. Thanks for starting the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Great post man! This coming shot looks to be as impressive as the shot earlier this month. The Euro looked very impressive at day 10. I know it is day ten but it did a great job sniffing the last one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 To no real surprise the 0z GFS is trending colder for the middle part of next week...a clipper will past through in Tuesday sending the first of several shots of real cold with this new event... 0z GFS keeps its in the 20's in a good portion of North Carolina and Tennessee next Wednesday, 30's as far south as below I-20. Single digit lows both Wednesday and Thursday mornings, especially in the mountains, teens outside of the mtns. Remember, this is only the start of what looks to be some brutal stuff come the last week of the month. Wed Morning: Wed Afternoon: Thursday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The thing that is impressive is not really the cold but the length of time we see well below normal temps. Even if the pattern relaxes it looks to be only a day or two but no warm up really in these next 2 weeks. With the EPO fixing to take a dive and the PNA and AO forecasting to look great things will be pretty progressive but a cold progressive at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So is this off the table now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So is this off the table now? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So is this off the table now? What are you talking about? These are the global ensemble runs from 0z at hour 168. Probably the best ensemble agreement you will EVER see for hour 168! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 So is this off the table now? Probably referring to last night's Euro and NCEP runs maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Just saw this on facebook from WRAL's Greg Fishel Coldest Weather of Winter Coming Up? It depends on how you define it. If you define "coldest" as a single day, then January 7 with its max of 25 and low of 9 has a good chance of winning the race. But if you define the "coldest" as the coldest week, then any 7 day period in the next 2 weeks has a good chance of eclipsing anything we have seen so far this season, at least with regard to high temperatures. We haven't experienced any persistent cold this winter. That may be changing in a big way as we finish out the month of January. Stay tuned. .........Greg Fishel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Probably referring to last night's Euro and NCEP runs maybe? Yes, GaWx said not as cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 What are you talking about? These are the global ensemble runs from 0z at hour 168. Probably the best ensemble agreement you will EVER see for hour 168! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, that screams torch, lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 I've not had any chance to look at model data this morning...but the thing we need to remember and I stated this in the original post. This is going to be more of a long endurance cold this time around. I'll even go as far at this point in saying that we may not even see the widespread below zero numbers from the Carolina mountains up into the Lower Ohio Valley Region. But give the interior Southeast repeated nights of low-mid teens (single digits in the mountains) with highs barely getting or staying below freezing during the day, that in itself will cause problems over time. Another caveat is if we do get snow cover this time farther south, that could also affect numbers on a more localized scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like JB will be right. He has been talking about this cold coming for weeks now. Now it seems all models catching on as we get closer to the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like JB will be right. He has been talking about this cold coming for weeks now. Now it seems all models catching on as we get closer to the time frame. Even a broken clock..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Even a broken clock..... Yep been broke all winter then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yep been broke all winter then.I couldn't agree with you more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 The Saturday 0z GFS continues to intensify the first shot of cold coming up on Tuesday...look at the 2M maps, a lot of the Southeast I-20 and North could stay below freezing on Wednesday, Thursday's high's try to creep up a little bit especially in the Central/'Eastern Carolinas in front of another clipper-type system. On the back side of that, high's go below freezing again on Friday... All morning temps starting on Wednesday are single digits mountains, teens outside the mountains and you have to get pretty far below I-20 to hit 20's. Second surge could allow some near-zero temps in the Apps Friday morning. Interesting enough for the second night in a row the 0z GFS breaks down the PNA pattern quite a bit faster than the other models, gotta believe that is in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 0z Euro similar to GFS with first cold snap starting middle next week with the coldest shot around or just after 192. The models verbatim has that punch coming on the heels of a decent snow event, 850's in excess of -20 all of TN, 2/3rds of NC...-10 to -15 850's down to I-20. 850 freezing line falls mid way between I-10 and I-20 by next Sunday morning. Would be very interesting to see that kind of airmass with the aide of snowpack. Euro overall colder than GFS nation-wide through the end of the run with wicked cold centered over the Great Lakes by Day 8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Cmc is cold too. Big storm next weekend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 I wanted to provide some thoughts here on Sunday Morning prior to the 12z model suite... There seems to be a good battle going on between the GFS and Euro in regards to how quick the +PNA will break down out west. GFS has been very adamant in trying to warm things up around Day 10...while the Euro keeps wanting to drop the coldest of weather around Day 10. So needless to say there is a debate going on among the models. Second...its becoming more and more obvious that the upcoming cold will not be the overwhelming cold like that of 2 weeks ago where everyone down to Florida goes into the deep freeze. However there is enough penetration of the cold that a significant temp gradient is going to set up roughly along I-20. So while areas like Montgomery, Macon and Charleston may wonder what all the hoopla is about, it will be areas further north (Huntsville, Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh) that are going to get at least a couple times in the next week where temps stay below freezing 24-36 hours at a time which for southern standards is very noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Sure enough...today's 12z GFS is significantly colder in the long range compared to previous runs. The timeframe from about Day 9-12 tries to hint at a surge of warmer air but when you look at the maps it would seem to me that the model verbatim is fighting the battle on whether to fully warm up or remain cold. The end of the run brings a pretty good dump of arctic air... Curious as to what the Euro brings in the next 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Sure enough...today's 12z GFS is significantly colder in the long range compared to previous runs. The timeframe from about Day 9-12 tries to hint at a surge of warmer air but when you look at the maps it would seem to me that the model verbatim is fighting the battle on whether to fully warm up or remain cold. The end of the run brings a pretty good dump of arctic air... Curious as to what the Euro brings in the next 2 hours. Yep, if it stays on the cold train again through the LR I think we have a Euro win shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The 12Z 1/19 GFS has come in much colder for the 11 to 15 day period. The prior three runs had suggested a torch during the same period. With this sudden change to colder, one has to wonder if the warmth on those three 11 to 15 day runs is going to bust as badly as the 1/9/14 runs' day 11 to 15's. Here's something that clearly illustrates the 1/9 run 11-15 day busts: First, compliments of Earthsat, here is the very toasty 1/9/14 12Z GFS 11-15 day 850 mb anomaly: Now, from Earthsat again, here is the very cold 1/19/14 12Z GFS 1-5 day 850 mb anomaly, which covers the exact same period: The 1/9 run warm busts were a result of the western ridging breaking down when in fact it will be very strong for the period! The greatest busts were in the Midwest and NE US. Examples: Chicago and NYC are now 19/17 C degrees (34/31 F) colder, respectively, than they were on that 1/9 run! The 0Z 1/9/14 run was very similar. Any comments? Is the GFS not taking into account that very warm water in the NE Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 For the North Carolina crowd...looking at the Meteorgram GFS data Raleigh-Durham goes below freezing Tuesday evening and with the exception of a 34 high on Thursday, RDU stays below freezing until Saturday. Charlotte is similar with temps going below freezing Tuesday evening, they do reach about 37 on Thursday but back below freezing until Saturday. Wed and Friday lows in Charlotte near 15. Asheville has a high of 35 on Tuesday and remains below freezing until late Saturday. Wednesday morning low of 8 and Friday morning low of 11. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday remain in the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Sure enough...today's 12z GFS is significantly colder in the long range compared to previous runs. The timeframe from about Day 9-12 tries to hint at a surge of warmer air but when you look at the maps it would seem to me that the model verbatim is fighting the battle on whether to fully warm up or remain cold. The end of the run brings a pretty good dump of arctic air... Curious as to what the Euro brings in the next 2 hours. It's totally in fantasy land, but the end of the run is showing single digit lows again for KHKY. This is a far cry from the portents of the previous two days. It just goes to show how nothing is really set in stone yet. We have no true idea or guarantee over what will or will not happen in a couple of days, much less a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 It looks like we have good agreement for what's coming this week...12z Euro more or less matches the GFS with our temps through day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 If the new run (18z) is any indication, I think the GFS is quickly playing catch-up ball with our temps... hour 60 hour 114 168 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looking over the MeteoStar Data output, we stay below freezing from hour 48 (Tuesday night) till hour 144 (Saturday evening). And from hour 48 to hour 180 we are only above freezing for a total of 9 hours. This is a very impressive cold snap that we are about to have dropped on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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