1/19-1/20 Clipper

[FLweather]

Its looking more and more likely that the 1/17 1/18 will be DOA for any snow chances.

 

But the one behind that should be bring clipper snows for some. Looks like very potent system in the upper levels. Slight differences among the models but generally very healthly maybe best shot at accumulating snow.

 

Nam shows some decent omega values which taken literally more convective banding possible.

 

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

Let's change the dates and chat it up! As brick would say, this will be the appetizer for the Saturday event next week!

[NEGa]

I would hope all these chances end up giving widespread se snow - but it's hard to get excited over a clipper east of the mtns. Usually dries up or yields a few flakes with the sun shining lol

[Brick Tamland]

Let's change the dates and chat it up! As brick would say, this will be the appetizer for the Saturday event next week!

 

Yes it will! As Jim Ross would say, business is about to pick up!

[FLweather]

I would hope all these chances end up giving widespread se snow - but it's hard to get excited over a clipper east of the mtns. Usually dries up or yields a few flakes with the sun shining lol

 

I know its hard to remain optimistic about clippers. But its hard to ignore atm and by far the best chance of 3 clippers thats suppose to swing in the SE through this weekend.

 

This is a piece of the PV breaking off and heading s/e. Really this reminds me of summer time type pattern with an intense mesoscale low riding over a ridge. But instead of a ridge the base of the trough. 

 

But the only thing we can do now is watch and wait.

 

[Cold Rain]

This clipper looks pretty strong on the 12z NAM and tracks through SC.  Good 700mb RH too.  No QPF depcited though.

[FLweather]

This clipper looks pretty strong on the 12z NAM and tracks through SC.  Good 700mb RH too.  No QPF depcited though.

As bad as the models have been with the qpf I wouldn't worry about it much. Something this strong will produce something on the lee side of the Apps. The GFS doesn't look bad either maybe a tad north with the moisture but the 500 is simlar to nam.

 

Interesting aspect too in the MW it shows the SLP down to 1000mb which is strong for a clipper.

But whatever happens its going to be quick about it... looks like a max 4-6 hours in one spot.

 

Ah just for giggles but this looks like a asymmetrical TS over land.

[Lookout]

I would hope all these chances end up giving widespread se snow - but it's hard to get excited over a clipper east of the mtns. Usually dries up or yields a few flakes with the sun shining lol

Yeah it's pretty rare for them to do much here..they have to dive pretty far south like earlier runs of the nam showed. Now it has joined the rest of the models showing it much further north and east which sucks. If it had taken that path it might have been interesting for even us. Now it looks like what most clippers do...give us nothing while nc and tn do a lot better.

[BullCityWx]

Clippers that dive into SC are famous for lee enhancement.

[FallsLake]

I think this clipper still has possibilities. RAH has added a chance of light snow(snow showers) to my forecast. It's not much but it's something to track.

 

THE CLIPPER MOVES IN SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF 120 M HEIGHT FALLS AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC... INCLUDING
AN INCOMING 40-50 KT850 MB JET SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS
REMAINS DRY WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
FAR NRN AND NE CWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AREA DO
SHOW DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUM... ESPECIALLY THE NAM... AND
THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY LOW BUT NON-ZERO SREF PROBABILITIES OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE SAT NIGHT. AND BASED ON THE THERMAL PROFILE
OF TEMP AND WET BULB... ANYTHING THAT FALLS WOULD BE A QUICK SNOW
SHOWER. AM IMPRESSED ENOUGH WITH THE OVERALL MOISTURE AND FORCING TO
ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NE CWA LATE SAT
NIGHT. BUT AS WITH TONIGHT`S SYSTEM... IT`S SO FAST-MOVING... IT
SHOULD GENERATE JUST LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS REGARDLESS. LOWS 24-29. -GIH
 

[FLweather]

I think this clipper still has possibilities. RAH has added a chance of light snow(snow showers) to my forecast. It's not much but it's something to track.

 

Yes it does. Really like the way its still impressive looking in the upper levels. It appears that the deepest Vortmax should cross southern NC which is favorable. Ive noticed though a slight trend in weakening from compact closed low to deep open trough more indicative as a frontal passage. But the models still shooting this thing through fast and is a little suspect on how fast its progressing.

 

Which the models have trended wetter since yesterday if this trough opens up some as it heads SE I could see the longwave flow allowing for better moisture transport. Which looking at the 12z h7 charts does show some pooling of moisture in the GOM. 

If If the models are wrong about the amount of moisture such as being too "dry". This could be a snow producer for some while having some thunderstorms around the Gulf.

[packfan98]

Looks like there is a chance for some flurries around this weekend. 

 

[mackerel_sky]

I like how there is a solid line into NGA, disappears over upstate , only to reform again from Gaffney, CLT,and CAE. Classic! Bring on the gulf storms. I am talking about the Sunday clipper, it looks like it gets a little gulf moisture transport?

[WXinCanton]

This one is looking like it will hold together somewhat.

[FLweather]

The latest runs of the rap,wrf, nam all to a degree show convection forming along the tail end of this clipper later today into tonight. Something to watch for. Which may mean slighly better moisture transport than what has been show.

 

Kind of interesting that this "wet" trend continues. Eventhough most show zip for qpf. If it does turn out to be wet enough in the bottom layers of the atmosphere then the thermal profiles should be supportive of frozen precip roughly south of ATL over to Columbia.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=18&model_init_hh=17&fhour=17&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

[BullCityWx]

Not bad on the sounding for 6z tomorrow morning: 

 

Date: 12 hour valid 6Z SUN 19 JAN 14
Station: KCLT
Latitude: 35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 128
SFC 990 206 -0.8 -6.4 66 5.6 -2.7 191 7 273.1 273.5 270.9 279.7 2.38
2 950 542 2.3 -13.7 29 16.0 -2.6 225 32 279.5 279.8 273.2 283.6 1.39
3 900 977 0.3 -14.6 32 14.8 -4.2 237 38 281.8 282.0 274.5 285.8 1.37
4 850 1433 -1.9 -12.5 44 10.6 -5.3 252 42 284.1 284.4 276.2 289.2 1.71
5 800 1913 -4.0 -11.2 57 7.2 -6.4 265 40 286.9 287.2 278.1 292.9 2.03
6 750 2420 -6.3 -11.4 67 5.1 -8.0 262 36 289.7 290.1 279.6 296.1 2.12
7 700 2956 -9.2 -12.7 76 3.5 -10.3 250 37 292.3 292.7 280.7 298.5 2.05
8 650 3525 -12.9 -15.1 84 2.2 -13.6 245 43 294.3 294.7 281.3 299.9 1.82
9 600 4131 -16.8 -18.5 87 1.7 -17.2 245 52 296.7 296.9 281.8 301.3 1.48
10 550 4779 -20.7 -22.4 87 1.6 -21.1 243 61 299.5 299.7 282.7 303.2 1.16
11 500 5477 -25.0 -27.0 83 2.0 -25.3 239 69 302.6 302.8 283.5 305.4 0.84
12 450 6236 -29.1 -33.9 64 4.7 -29.7 233 76 306.6 306.7 284.7 308.3 0.49
13 400 7068 -34.3 -39.7 58 5.5 -34.8 227 81 310.5 310.5 285.9 311.5 0.30
14 350 7989 -40.7 228 83 313.9
15 300 9021 -47.4 -56.2 36 8.8 -47.7 230 96 318.6 318.6 288.3 318.8 0.06
16 250 10210 -53.3 235 104 326.8
17 200 11640 -52.5 234 102 349.7
18 150 13500 -53.7 241 83 377.5
19 100 16078 -58.0 262 60 415.6
TRP 0
WND 0

[BullCityWx]

That's a fairly impressive radar depcition for there to be no QPF(18z RAP).

[FLweather]

That's a fairly impressive radar depcition for there to be no QPF(18z RAP).

 

Thats what I was thinking.

 

But then again could be modeled poorly or not. If it has been handled poorly then more than likely this could be a overperformer for parts of GA,SC,NC

[mackerel_sky]

See all that moisture off the Texas coast, if we could just get that up here, temps will not be an issue. It also looks to be dropping due south at the moment through Missouri . I'll take a snow shower at this point

[FLweather]

See all that moisture off the Texas coast, if we could just get that up here, temps will not be an issue. It also looks to be dropping due south at the moment through Missouri . I'll take a snow shower at this point

 

 

It would be nice if the models blow this and it turns out to be a over performer east of the Apps. Guess we have about 12 more hours to find out.

 

It does look like the trough axis has turned enough to capture some moisture. That what you pointed out is turning back off to the NE. I would think over the next couple hours maybe see more development along the tail end.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

 

The only thing we can do is watch the radars over MS,AL,LA over the next few hours.

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

Looks like the clipper is headed right for us.It's forecast tojump over us in western NC.I've saw clipper's jump over us and i've saw them hit us.The last good one, before this past wednesday ,was early Dec 2010. We were forecast to get maybe a dusting and would up with 3 inches.

I wonder why some  clippers miss us and others hit us? 

I did read where DT said this was a clipper low  insead of a clipper, whatever that means, and SW VA should geta few inches out of this.

[timnc910]

Looking at the radar it appears there is moisture starting to develop in the southwestern part of the system... also the last couple frames it appears to be dissing south a little bit.I'm not sure if the returns of the se coast of texas is having anything to do with it.. maybe someone with more experience can clarify this.

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL just said on facebook it will fall apart over the mountains and all I mmight see is some flurries.

[Hvward]

Development showing up SW of the Memphis radar.

[FallsLake]

Development showing up SW of the Memphis radar.

Radar not looking bad. But these bands will get eat up by the mountains. The big question is what can redeveloped past the mountains.

[WeatherNC]

Hemispheric Western Atlantic 4km WV loop (mobile platforms no click)

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

[FLO]

I like how there is a solid line into NGA, disappears over upstate , only to reform again from Gaffney, CLT,and CAE. Classic! Bring on the gulf storms. I am talking about the Sunday clipper, it looks like it gets a little gulf moisture transport?

. Looks to reform east of CAE.

[FLweather]

Hemispheric Western Atlantic 4km WV loop (mobile platforms no click)

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

 

Is it just me or did this thing stretch out further and the southern half of the s/w diving further south than was modeled?

 

But radar still not bad looking. More precip than was modeled imo though the "front half" of the precip dryed quickly. The important thing is via radar the main ULL is over southern IL dropping ESE.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

0z GFS is picking up on that precip to our west/southwest. It is more realistic. Bears watching for sure.

[WeatherNC]

0z GFS is picking up on that precip to our west/southwest. It is more realistic. Bears watching for sure.

 

Very dry airmass out ahead of it, checked a few obs in N AL, low 40's over upper teens, with nothing reaching the ground back into N MS.