30-45 day pattern about to commence

[Mikehobbyst]

The indices seem to be locking in a 30-45 day pattern of +PNA / -EPO / near Neutral NAO and a possible Octet 8-1 MJO phase.  Pattern looks of long duration due to stable pattern and locked in -EPO for a very long time period.  It would not surprise me to see the -EPO to lock in through mid March 2014, until something either negates it, or seasonable changes due to changing wave lengths.  I am looking for the next 3-5 weeks to feature alternating -5 to -15 departures with some days staying 9-14 degrees for highs and -2 to 8 degree lows.  The warmer periods would feature highs near 32-36 and lows in the mid teens to lower 20's.  I think either in late January or in early to mid February we could clock a near or possible record of constant hours below freezing.  A seven to twelve day and night period of < 32 degrees F.  Snow looks to come back the week of 1/19 to 1/25 with a possible Miller B 6-12 inch event centered around Wednesday.  Towards the end of the month of January a possible south displaced  Polar Vortex phase in w/ polar and Arctic jet could set off a 12-18 inch snow event Miller B w/ major cyclogensis around the centered 1/26 to 2/5 time period.  There probably will be numerous clippers to possible Miller B rapid moving coastals in Feb 2014, along with more standard TN Valley to Mid Atlantic tracks with Miller B coastal redevelopers based on the pattern and wave lengths.  This period looks to avoid any major thaws unlike the last pattern and will be extremely long lasting with no breaks quite possible due to -EPO and PV locked in place.  The most extreme  severe cold looks to be over GL and inland Northeast with coastal areas in slightly less severe cold.  At times there might be more normal cold weather but very few periods of relaxation. This looks like one of the best long lasting winter patterns of our life.  What could go wrong: PV is further north, the cold shifts to the other hemisphere later in the period, the -EPO starts to weaken in mid February.  If we got Greenland blocking and -NAO w. current expected pattern we'll be getting HEC's and record snow depths with lasting power.  I think March starts off cold and then relaxes as the sun insolation will abate the cold and once the -EPO weakens we could go into real spring weather if no Greenland blocking shows up.  With a poor Atlantic, we may go into an alternating chilly and very warm spring days, instead of having to wait until Memorial Day with a blocked Atlantic w/ Backdoors.  The only thing is, the very cold weather will make for very cold waters until Mid May which could lead to lots of 60-70's inland during April and May, while the coast struggles to get above the low 50's during the milder periods. Backdoor risk will be favored for coastal New England and LI due to very cold north Atlantic waters due to the extremely cold late January through very early March winter pattern.

 

Mets and others, it is now your chance to add to this topic and discussion and place your commentaries on this

[PB GFI]

This is the first 10 days of Feb ,  Which is in line with the Day 15 Euro Ensembles that continues too hook the higher heights over

the top and directs arctic air into the CONUS east of the Rockies . So it looks like the CFSV2 and the Euro agree this is at least a 20 a day  COLD ( and snowy my MO  ) period .

[REDMK6GLI]

This is the first 10 days of Feb , Which is in line with the Day 15 Euro Ensembles that continues too hook the higher heights over

the top and directs arctic air into the CONUS east of the Rockies . So it looks like the CFSV2 and the Euro agree this is at least a 20 a day COLD ( and snowy my MO ) period .

Going to make a bold statement that in this period of storminess and cold NYC is going tack on another 20"+ and a possible KU end if this month into february if the statospheric warming does actually establish a -NAO for february

[PB GFI]

Going to make a bold statement that in this period of storminess and cold NYC is going tack on another 20"+ and a possible KU end if this month into february if the statospheric warming does actually establish a -NAO for february

Bring the cold and the snow will follow .  ( I heard that somewhere before )  . 20 is too bold for me to say  ,  but I think there could be multiple 6 to 12`s , for me if KNYC can Avg 5C below normal for 20 days , where does that stack up vs other 20 day outbreaks .

Need UNC for that one

[NEG NAO]

as I mentioned yesterday the 1/26 - 1/27 period on the GFS keeps showing a potential Miller A event - also the southern stream starts to become active with a storm on the GFS entering California which has been basically precip free the last few months - only problem to worry about is storms not coming far enough north - there has to be proper interaction between streams - don't want the northern stream too progressive and crushing southern systems which seems to be happening on the GFS with very little precip for the 16 day period

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[REDMK6GLI]

as I mentioned yesterday the 1/26 - 1/27 period on the GFS keeps showing a potential Miller A event - also the southern stream starts to become active with a storm on the GFS entering California which has been basically precip free the last few months - only problem to worry about is storms not coming far enough north - there has to be proper interaction between streams - don't want the northern stream too progressive and crushing southern systems which seems to be happening on the GFS with very little precip for the 16 day period

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

IMO until we start to see an established blocking regime i feel a Miller A is going to be almost close to impossible to pull off for the tri-state area. This pattern as currently forecasted incoming will most likely yeild late blooming miller B's that will benefit NE before us until we get that established blocking to give these storms a chance to amplify at the right spot and at the right time

[uncle W]

Bring the cold and the snow will follow .  ( I heard that somewhere before )  . 20 is too bold for me to say  ,  but I think there could be multiple 6 to 12`s , for me if KNYC can Avg 5C below normal for 20 days , where does that stack up vs other 20 day outbreaks .

Need UNC for that one

I don't have 20 day periods but 15 day snow and cold combined and 30 day cold numbers...these are cold and snowy periods for NYC...the 15 day period has at least 10" of snow and an average temperature 32.0 or lower...Not every year has one...Some had three...last year had one...

15 day period.............AT..max/min...Precip"..Snow"BS"....SC"

Feb. 14-28 .......1940..29.6..42..16..1.96"..11.0"...9.0".....9"

Feb22-Mar 8.....1941..31.5..51..17..2.36"..22.1"..18.1"..18"

Jan. 6-20 .........1945..24.5..39....9..1.33"..11.9"...6.7".....8"

Dec. 10-24........1945..23.7..45..10..1.27"..12.2"...8.3".....9"

Feb. 7-21..........1947..30.6..49..10..1.51"..15.9"..10.7"...10"

Dec23-Jan.6.1947-48..29.7..37..18..4.55"..32.1"..26.4"...26"

Jan21-Feb.4.....1948...20.5..37...0..1.75"..12.2"....5.1"...12"

Feb20-Mar.6.....1948..30.7...57...9..2.33"..10.6"...5.7"......6"

Dec 14-28.........1948..30.8..51..10..2.70"..21.3"..16.0"...16"

Jan. 5-19..........1954..26.7..41....7..1.43"..12.7"....7.8".....9"

Feb. 7-21.........1958..21.4..39....3..1.37"..10.5"....7.9".....8"

Mar. 3-17.........1960..27.5..42..14..1.40"..16.4"..14.5"...14"

Dec 11-25........1960..25.8..49....8..2.50"..16.6"..15.2"...15"

Jan21-Feb 4.....1961..17.5..34...-2..2.97"..22.5"..17.4"...25"

Dec 11-25.........1963..27.0..39..11..1.19"..10.3"....6.6"....7"

Feb. 8-22..........1964..31.3..43..19..1.71"..11.9"....6.8"....6"

Jan. 10-24........1965..27.1..50....9..2.11"..14.1"....6.3"....6"

Jan20-Feb 3.....1966..28.2..44....8..1.73"..14.7"....6.8"....8"

Feb 6-20..........1967..27.7..60....4..1.73"..18.9"..12.5"...14"

Feb 9-23..........1969..31.7..43..17..2.47"..16.3"..15.3"...15"

Feb. 10-24.......1972..31.0..58....9..3.48"..12.6"....5.7".....5"

Jan31-Feb 14...1975..29.5..45..16..1.23"..10.6"....7.8".....8"

Jan 5-19...........1977..20.2..41...-1..2.07"..10.9"....5.2"....6"

Jan 9-23...........1978..26.1..58..12..5.45"..19.3"..13.6"..14"

Feb 1-15..........1978..24.9..37..10..1.50"..21.9"..17.7"..18"

Feb 5-19..........1979..16.5..34....0..1.38"..20.1"..12.7"..16"

Jan 9-23...........1982..19.2..45....0..2.21"..11.8"....5.8"...8"

Jan 8-22...........1984..24.2..46....8..1.15"..10.5"....5.1"...6"

Jan25-Feb 8.....1985..27.3..41..14..1.36"..10.8"....5.7"...7"

Jan28-Feb11....1986..30.4..48..14..1.68"..11.5"....4.5"...6"

Jan 17-31.........1987..26.8..40....8..3.21"..13.1"....8.1"...9"

Dec29-Jan12...87-88..24.7..45....8..1.63"..13.8"....5.8"...9"

Jan30-Feb13....1994..25.8..46....7..2.45"..22.4"..12.8"..21"

Feb. 2-16.........1995..26.3..47....6..1.72"..11.1"..10.8"..11"

Dec 9-23..........1995..28.9..44..15..1.77"..11.5"....7.7"....7"

Jan 2-16...........1996..24.2..41....6..3.41"..25.2"..20.2"..21"

Feb 2-16..........1996..27.1..49....5..1.41"..20.4"..10.7"..10"

Jan20-Feb 3.....2000..24.5..38....8..1.78"..11.7"....5.5"....6"

Dec22-Jan5.....00-01..25.2..34..14..1.12"..14.6"..12.0"..12"

Feb. 5-19.........2003..25.6..41....8..2.32"..26.1"..19.8"..20"

Jan. 14-28........2004..20.0..39....1..1.36"..16.8"..10.3"..12"

Jan. 16-30........2005..20.5..38....5..1.27"..15.3"..13.8"..14"

Feb18-Mar 4.....2005..30.6..43..16..1.54"..18.7"....7.7"....9"

Dec19-Jan2.....09-10..31.9..55..16..3.07"..12.6"..10.9"..11"

Feb 2-16..........2010..31.2..42..17..1.86"..16.0"..10.0"..10"

Dec 14-28........2010..29.3..40..19..1.62"..20.1"..20.0"..20"

Jan. 13-27........2011..27.0..41...6...3.70"..25.2"..19.0"..23"

Jan26-Feb9......2013..31.5..61..11...2.81"..12.2"..11.4"..10"

.........................................................................................

[NEG NAO]

According to this forecast the PNA is diving towards neutral again later this month - where is the forecast saying it locks in to positive ?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

The indices seem to be locking in a 30-45 day pattern of +PNA / -EPO / near Neutral NAO and a possible Octet 8-1 MJO phase.  

[PB GFI]

According to this forecast the PNA is diving towards neutral again later this month - where is the forecast saying it locks in to positive ?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

D 15 euro ensembles keeps the ridge in the west. The day 15 to 25 CFSV2 stays with the ridge

I think u may see that trend higher on the back end IMO

[uncle W]

here are the snowiest 30 day periods for NYC...

30" in 30 days...
The short list...
02/24-03/24, 1896.....32.0"
02/06-03/07, 1914.....35.2"
12/26-01/24, 1948.....43.4"
01/15-02/13, 1961.....34.1"
01/16-02/14, 1978.....37.2"
02/02-03/03, 1994.....30.8"
12/14-01/12, 1996.....35.2"
01/28-02/26, 2010.....38.2"
01/07-02/05, 2011.....37.6"

500mb maps as of 1/1/1948...

 

[Animal]

Bring the cold and the snow will follow .  ( I heard that somewhere before )  . 20 is too bold for me to say  ,  but I think there could be multiple 6 to 12`s , for me if KNYC can Avg 5C below normal for 20 days , where does that stack up vs other 20 day outbreaks .

Need UNC for that one

 

 

I picked up around 45 inches of snow last February & March in Highland Lakes in a not so great pattern.

For this much talked about "historical pattern" to produce, the bar will need to be around 60-80 inches in February/March combined in my area.

 

Best.

[Stormlover74]

I picked up around 45 inches of snow last February & March in Highland Lakes in a not so great pattern.

For this much talked about "historical pattern" to produce, the bar will need to be around 60-80 inches in February/March combined in my area.

 

Best.

I'm hoping for a repeat of Jan/Feb 94. A KU storm that's over in 18 hours is overrated to me. I'd rather have multiple 6-10" events, snow on top of snow with snowcover for a month straight.

[Animal]

The patern looks to go cold and dry with a few possible small events inclung this weekends.

We may break out  of the Polar Vortex 2 cold with a decent event in early February.

Most of the storms that look favorabe only last a model cycle or two before turning into nothing.

[SnoSki14]

The patern looks to go cold and dry with a few possible small events inclung this weekends.

We may break out  of the Polar Vortex 2 cold with a decent event in early February.

Most of the storms that look favorabe only last a model cycle or two before turning into nothing.

 

I hope this reasoning isn't based off one Euro run because I don't see that at all. I trust what Don and Earthlight said and historically the upcoming pattern has produced in the past and will likely produce again. I still think the models are in transition mode and will take a few more days to figure it all out. I think there's huge potential with the MLK storm.