06Z Model thread 12/19/00

[lindywx]

If this storm pans out close to what is being depicted it's NOT gonna happen because we are long over due for a XMAS EVE/DAY storm.......BUT WE ARE LONG OVER DUE.

[winter_warlock]

If this storm pans out close to what is being depicted it's NOT gonna happen because we are long over due for a XMAS EVE/DAY storm.......BUT WE ARE LONG OVER DUE.

ITS NOT GONNA HAPPEN?? WHATS YOUR REASONING?

[aldie 22]

did it snow xmas eve 1966?? I was 18 then and dont remember.

62 huh....surprising

[winter_warlock]

62 huh....surprising

lol why is that surprising?

[aldie 22]

lol why is that surprising?

His posting style can sometimes be....how should I say it.....younger???

[winter_warlock]

His posting style can sometimes be....how should I say it.....younger???

lol hmm now that i think about it, good point

[mdsnowlover]

His posting style can sometimes be....how should I say it.....younger???

that's interesting as I dont post very much. I guess I,m young a t heart. How old are you??

[mdsnowlover]

THIS IS THE MID MORNING UPDATED 3-7 DAY FORECAST FROM HPC .......

Now I see why hpc is going for what they are. If that materialized the way its posted, then we could very well be in for heavy snow. But that is a big IF!!

[Edge Weather]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

900 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010

THE FORECAST SPREAD/SOLUTION ENVELOPE REMAINS SMALLER THAN NORMAL

AS MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE QUITE WELL WITH DEVELOPMENT AND

EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED AND STEADILY PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE

FLOW PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE LOWER 48 OVER THE

COMING HOLIDAY WEEK. THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY

THE INLAND SURGE OF DYNAMIC/COOLING/DESTABILILZING SHORT RANGE ERN

PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT OUT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN

WEST/ROCKIES THU OVER/THROUGH A MID-UPPER LEVEL MEAN RIDGE

POSITION BEFORE DIGGING/AMPLIFYING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND

INTO AN ERN SEABOARD BY CHRISTMAS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR

POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF WINTER PCPN ACROSS THE NATION

AND LEADING TO WELL ORGANIZED HOLIDAY WEEKEND EAST COAST WINTER

STORM CYCLOGENESIS. UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN

PACIFIC BY THEN BECOMES MORE OF A MESS HOWEVER WITH INCREASING

SOLUTION SPREAD...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH

TIME THERE AND INLAND INTO THE WRN US EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF

GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW ANOTHER POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO REACH

THE WEST COAST CHRISTMAS WEEKEND WITH A RENEWED THREAT FOR MORE

HEAVY PCPN/UNSETTLED WEATHER SLAMMING INLAND.

OVERALL...WHILE GUIDANCE DOES OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES AN OVERALL

SOLUTION CLOSE TO THAT SIMILARILY PROVIDED BY RECENT GFS/ECMWF AND

GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SEEMS REASONABLE AND RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENT. THE MANUALLY ADJUSTED UPDATED HPC PRELIM GUIDANCE

PACKAGE MAINTAINED CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS

FROM OUR EARLIER ISSUANCE. HEAVY SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS IS OFTEN

MORE FICKLE AS PER IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES AND

INTERACTIONS THAT STILL FALL WITHIN NOISE LEVELS AT MEDIUM RANGE

TIME SCALES...BUT THE FLOW REGIME CERTAINTY SUPPORTS A BUSY/STORMY

HOLIDAY PERIOD.

CISCO/SCHICHTEL

[ptb127]

I agree it looks great... higher ratios the further north one goes as the -10 line runs through PA..

Got to love what it shows for total precip for the xmas storm though.

[Redmorninglight]

I like this setup, especially the large ridge centered over the N rockies. If I recall, didn't 2002 Christmas have a FROPA snow event for northern Mid Atlantic? It also produced major snows in Vermont ski country. I believe 6" fell in Northern Jersey (Gillette) where we had Christmas dinner.