06Z Model thread 12/19/00

[showmethesnow]

This setup heading into the Xmas storm looks pretty interesting to my untrained eyes.

Shows a neutral look at the Mississippi with a piece of energy diving down from the upper midwest. Has a nice ridge out west with a 1040 banana high showing on the surface to the northwest.

[Confuzzled]

Still a long ways off but its good to see the 6z gfs joining the Christmas day snow party. The profile looks pretty cold too. Maybe some good snow ratios.... (Weenie)

I think the gfs seems to be pushing the storm a little bit later (for New England at least).

[ayuud]

it looks really cold at the end of the run too

[showmethesnow]

Not sure of the evolution of the 500mb on the following frames though. Doesn't look right to me how it progresses.

[Hailstorm]

The New Year's storm is gone on this run; although, I believe it will show up again on future runs most likely.

[showmethesnow]

Got to love what it shows for total precip for the xmas storm though.

[showmethesnow]

The New Year's storm is gone on this run; although, I believe it will show up again on future runs most likely.

Look at the differences at 500 between the 00 and the 06. Unbelievable.

[Hailstorm]

Yep. That's a complete 180-degree turn between the 0z and 6z runs regarding the upper-air pattern; there's strong confluence in the Northeast on the 6z run which pretty much precludes any storm from developing and the upper-air flow is more west-to-east which is too progressive for any trough amplification.

[winter_warlock]

this is from the HPC....... very interesting ....

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

400 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010

...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TO

THE EAST COAST TOWARD CHRISTMAS...

USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS IN PHENOMENALLY GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE TRACK AND RELATIVE INTENSITY OF

THE MAJOR WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST DAY 5 TO OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST DAY 7. FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z/19 GEFS MEAN IS VERY

CLOSE TO THE 12Z/18 ECENS MEAN WITH THE SAME SYSTEM...ADDITIONALLY

PARTICULARLY ROBUST SUPPORT. USED THE ECMWF SINCE ITS DETAILS

TEND TO VERIFY BETTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH MAY HELP TO SORT

OUT THE NOISY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESURGING INTO THE WEST THIS

PERIOD.

CISCO

[SnowGoose69]

Not sure of the evolution of the 500mb on the following frames though. Doesn't look right to me how it progresses.

The overall track of the initial system through the OH Valley/Midwest is a bit rare for most of the classic winter storms which have ultimately undergone major cyclogenesis and hit the East Coast...the track from OK-AR-TN-NC is rare...it seems most have either gone north of that across the Ohio River or south across the southern states....the Euro agrees with it dead on though across that same corridor, the GEM has the more classic OH River track.

[Hailstorm]

The overall track of the initial system through the OH Valley/Midwest is a bit rare for most of the classic winter storms which have ultimately undergone major cyclogenesis and hit the East Coast...the track from OK-AR-TN-NC is rare...it seems most have either gone north of that across the Ohio River or south across the southern states....the Euro agrees with it dead on though across that same corridor, the GEM has the more classic OH River track.

Good points. I should also add that the 0z UMKET and 6z DGEX for today seem to want to drive the area of low pressure through the southern states as well.

[Parsley]

The overall track of the initial system through the OH Valley/Midwest is a bit rare for most of the classic winter storms which have ultimately undergone major cyclogenesis and hit the East Coast...the track from OK-AR-TN-NC is rare...it seems most have either gone north of that across the Ohio River or south across the southern states....the Euro agrees with it dead on though across that same corridor, the GEM has the more classic OH River track.

Great point, the fear of a more southern track (that doesn't then come north) worries me a bit. I wonder what past storms have mirrored somewhat the track that's depicted on the models for later this week. I can't think of many recent storms.....

[showmethesnow]

Good points. I should also add that the 0z UMKET and 6z DGEX for today seem to want to drive the area of low pressure through the southern states as well.

As far as the DGEX if you look at the 84 hour NAM compared to the GFS 84 it looks to me that the future 50/50 low is better consolidated on the GFS. On the NAM that the DGEX extrapolates from, the pressures look strung out. Again, not an expert but wouldn't that argue for a more progressive pattern farther to the south.

[SnowGoose69]

Great point, the fear of a more southern track (that doesn't then come north) worries me a bit. I wonder what past storms have mirrored somewhat the track that's depicted on the models for later this week. I can't think of many recent storms.....

Its possible the track depicted will occur if there is just enough of a confluent/blocking setup in SE Canada/W ATL...I don't think that it will be strong enough to suppress the system into the deep south and a track down in that area during a La Nina is quite rare to begin with....the worst case scenario for areas above 38-40N is the system takes the depicted track shown now and simply does not re-develop and come up the coast, in that case they probably see nothing while something along the lines of 2-6 inches falls in MD/DE/N-W VA. I still think the track shown on the GFS/Euro could be a bit too far south given the pattern shown....not by much but maybe by 100-150 miles or so.

[stormtracker]

It is unnervingly spooky how consistent the GFS has been with this.

I don't like it.

[mdsnowlover]

The New Year's storm is gone on this run; although, I believe it will show up again on future runs most likely.

it not gone, just delayed, and a bit closer to the coast, maybe inland a bit, but not gone/

[SnowGoose69]

It is unnervingly spooky how consistent the GFS has been with this.

I don't like it.

I remember it being this consistent on events before but its been rare, the 2/5-2/6 event last year I believe it had from quite a ways out consistently though the track may have varied more than this has...normally the GFS is more fickle on events it picks up in the Day 8+ range which it then loses, it sort of caught this event closer to inside that period....at this point I'd be amazed if the models lost this event though its possible if it ultimately undergoes severe dampening as it comes out of the Western U.S. into the Rockies.

[Parsley]

Its possible the track depicted will occur if there is just enough of a confluent/blocking setup in SE Canada/W ATL...I don't think that it will be strong enough to suppress the system into the deep south and a track down in that area during a La Nina is quite rare to begin with....the worst case scenario for areas above 38-40N is the system takes the depicted track shown now and simply does not re-develop and come up the coast, in that case they probably see nothing while something along the lines of 2-6 inches falls in MD/DE/N-W VA. I still think the track shown on the GFS/Euro could be a bit too far south given the pattern shown....not by much but maybe by 100-150 miles or so.

Gotcha.

As for me, I'm not going to be greedy later in the week, if I can get 2-4 inches of snow Friday-Saturday, I'm happy. Still a long way too go, thanks for the insight.

[mdsnowlover]

Its possible the track depicted will occur if there is just enough of a confluent/blocking setup in SE Canada/W ATL...I don't think that it will be strong enough to suppress the system into the deep south and a track down in that area during a La Nina is quite rare to begin with....the worst case scenario for areas above 38-40N is the system takes the depicted track shown now and simply does not re-develop and come up the coast, in that case they probably see nothing while something along the lines of 2-6 inches falls in MD/DE/N-W VA. I still think the track shown on the GFS/Euro could be a bit too far south given the pattern shown....not by much but maybe by 100-150 miles or so.

what is your take on the hpc discussion with the gfs and ec so close, and the ensembles so close.?? Hpc also says ensembles are better at long range verification?? I haveSo where d a hard time believening this storm is going to take place, I dont trust the models at all at this point.Buit this is an important weekend for all. So where do you think the track should be???

[showmethesnow]

it not gone, just delayed, and a bit closer to the coast, maybe inland a bit, but not gone/

Not sure where you see that. 06 looks like a very flat zonal flow across the us which is a major change from the 00 which had a ridge out west and a trough in the eastern part of the us.

[lindywx]

Great point, the fear of a more southern track (that doesn't then come north) worries me a bit. I wonder what past storms have mirrored somewhat the track that's depicted on the models for later this week. I can't think of many recent storms.....

Christmas Eve 1966 took a more southern route as it traversed west east from West Texas to just off the mid South Carolina Coast when it exploded as it moved NNE from there

[mdsnowlover]

Christmas Eve 1966 took a more southern route as it traversed west east from West Texas to just off the mid South Carolina Coast when it exploded as it moved NNE from there

did it snow xmas eve 1966?? I was 18 then and dont remember.

[winter_warlock]

heres the 00z euro ensemble mean, for the storm ....

[winter_warlock]

did it snow xmas eve 1966?? I was 18 then and dont remember.

i was born 6 months later so i def dont remember lol

[ME_wannabe]

did it snow xmas eve 1966?? I was 18 then and dont remember.

I was 5 in 1966 and will never forget the Christmas Eve snowstorm that we drove through on our way to/from the famous Zaberers Restaurant. One of those snow memories that will not fade.

[winter_warlock]

I was 5 in 1966 and will never forget the Christmas Eve snowstorm that we drove through on our way to/from the famous Zaberers Restaurant. One of those snow memories that will not fade.

now ive had a few light snow events that coated the ground, but ive never seen a bonafied snowstorm on christmas day, savor it if we get it my friends it is a rarity

[lindywx]

did it snow xmas eve 1966?? I was 18 then and dont remember.

It was a KU storm, too. 12-18" fell from Central Va. through Eastern Pa,Eastern NY, and Vermont. There were P-type issues on XMAs eve in the afternoon along the coast that held down amounts in the 6-10 range, but we ended with a fresh blanket of snow on the backside.

[winter_warlock]

It was a KU storm, too. 12-18" fell from Central Va. through Eastern Pa,Eastern NY, and Vermont. There were P-type issues on XMAs eve in the afternoon along the coast that held down amounts in the 6-10 range, but we ended with a fresh blanket of snow on the backside.

your right it was a Kocin-Uccellini storm, but i dont think this one is

[winter_warlock]

THIS IS THE MID MORNING UPDATED 3-7 DAY FORECAST FROM HPC .......

[Voyager]

I was 5 in 1966 and will never forget the Christmas Eve snowstorm that we drove through on our way to/from the famous Zaberers Restaurant. One of those snow memories that will not fade.

I remember my mom & dad telling me that the snow was bad enough that they stayed at my grandparents house overnight rather then attempt to drive home, and this was in Bethlehem PA. I was born in 1968, so other than stories I've heard, I don't know much about it.