NNE Winter Part 3

[powderfreak]

Speak of the devil...5:12 pm update:

 

StormTotalSnowFcstZoomUR2.png

 

When I got home I had 2" of water-logged snow on the snowboard today (net gain at least, haha), and maybe we can get the same amount over the weekend but with 4 times the amount of QPF, lol.

[eyewall]

TABER kills it on the AFD everytime...love the detail he puts into these.

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN

DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN

VT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET

AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY.

WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM

WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COMPLEX SCENARIO AND THE WARMING TRENDS

OBSERVED IN 12Z MODEL THERMAL PROFILES. BEST CHC FOR WARNING AMOUNT

SNOWFALL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES WL BE ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS

AND NORTHERN GREENS BY SUNDAY.

FLOOD WATCH FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR...ORANGE...AND WESTERN ADDISON

COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING FROM THE

COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT...EXPECTED RAINFALL...AND ASSOCIATED RIVER

RISES AND ICE JAM THREAT.

ANOTHER EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FCST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT

MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AND VERY COMPLICATED THERMAL

PROFILES. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES AND

ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC AND ULVL FEATURES. NAM CONTS TO BE A COOL

OUTLIER AND WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF

NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED

EMBEDDED 5H VORT ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANT

TROPICAL MOISTURE/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS INTO TROF ON SATURDAY...MID/UPPER

LVLS WL QUICKLY BECOME CLOSED WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER

EASTERN NC. THE DEEP CLOSED FULL LATITUDE TROF AND POSITION OF SFC

LOW PRES WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACRS THE EASTERN

CONUS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES ADVECTS LLVL COLD AIR IN OUR

CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS COLLISION BTWN COLDER AIR TO

THE NORTH AND WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH...WL SET THE BATTLE GROUND

FOR A COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILE ACRS OUR CWA...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS

ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOW LLVL NORTHERLY WINDS ACRS THE CPV/SLV WITH

ADVECTION OF SHALLOW COLD AIR DOWN THE VALLEYS...BUT DEEP EAST TO

SOUTHEAST FLW ALOFT PUSHES ABOVE 0C AIR INTO MOST OF VT AND PARTS OF

THE DACKS DURING THE EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY WITH THE PROGGED

1000 TO 500MB 540DM LINE STARTING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA ON

SAT AFTN...BUT AS WAA ALOFT DEVELOPS THIS CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW LINE IS

PUSHED BACK INTO THE SLV AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SOUNDINGS SHOW A COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILE WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR BLW

FREEZING AT BTV/PBG WITH WARM LAYER AROUND 825MB OF +3C.

HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AROUND 06Z SUNDAY...PROFILE

QUICKLY COOLS AND BECOMES ISOTHERMAL NEAR 0C FROM SFC THRU

700MB...SUPPORTING MORE SNOW. BUT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTS

EASTWARD AND THE WARMING FROM THE SUN OCCURS ON SUNDAY

MORNING...EXPECT THE SNOW TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN/SNOW MIX. THINKING

ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT IS LIKELY WITH SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2

TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN CPV. HAVE NOTICED BOTH ON

THE GFS/ECMWF 925MB TEMPS COOL BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORTING A

POTENTIAL MIXTURE WITH SLEET.

MEANWHILE...ACRS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A

MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WITH SOME MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACRS THE

HIGHER TRRN ABOVE 1800 FT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN THE HEAVIEST

PRECIP ARRIVES. THE TRICKY PART OF THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ACRS THE

NORTHERN GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE DACKS...WHERE BOTH GFS/NAM

SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SLEET/RAIN

FREEZING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM NOSE ON SAT NIGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE

HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE COOLING ON

NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS...WOULD SUPPORT THE BEST CHC OF 6 OR MORE

INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL

ACRS THE CPV WL BE SAT NIGHT...WHEN THE PRECIP RATES ARE THE HIGHEST

AND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE IS NOT A FACTOR.

ON SUNDAY...CWA CONTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION

BUT WITH BL WARMING EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACRS THE

HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMING 85H

TEMPS AND HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH LIKELY

TO CAT POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL QPF OF 0.25 TO

0.50" ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WL SLOWLY

WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F WARMER VALLEYS.

 

 

Very well written, and a classic elevation event. It being rate driven makes sense in my neck of the woods. I was hinting at that in the other thread. Dynamical cooling with the ULL is what we have to hope for down here for a period of parachutes . These are the scenarios I was used to in NC where you would have "snow islands" of accumulation with the heavier precip rates.

[CardinalWinds]

Where were you in NC, eyewall?

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.31” L.E.

 

There was 0.8” of additional snow today and 0.24” of total liquid with much of that coming from mix/rain after the snow changed over.

 

Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 36.7 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 17.0 inches

[powderfreak]

Light rain in town and snowing up here at 1500ft with a very light dusting.

[Allenson]

34F this morning and we never dipped below freezing last night after topping out yesterday at 36.

 

Longest stretch of >32 temps in quite a while.

 

Smells like melting snow out there though the pack has hardly budged, still sitting at a hearty 31".

 

Should be an interesting event coming up:  simultaneous WWA and Flood Watch.  Gitty-up! 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 2.0” Snow/0.36” L.E.

 

We had an additional bit of precipitation overnight to add to this most recent event – the snowboards were just wet though, with no new snow accumulation.

 

The north to south listing of totals from this recent storm for the Vermont ski areas is listed below.  There was generally 3” of accumulation across the spine of the Northern and Central Greens, with totals up to an inch once you moved south of Killington into the Southern Greens.

 

Jay Peak: 3”

Burke: 1”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 3”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 1”

Middlebury: 2”

Pico: 3”

Killington: 3”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: 0”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 1”

 

The next event up is a more moisture-laden, coastal system that looks to deliver about 1 ½” of liquid equivalent in the area.  The latest advisory map from the BTV NWS has Winter Weather Advisories pushed a bit south of where the Winter Storm Watches had been set up yesterday.  In yesterday afternoon’s advisory map update, Orange, Windsor, Rutland, and western Addison counties were under Flood Watches, but now they are also under Winter Weather Advisories:

 

 

The updated storm total snow forecast map appears to be more solidified now, with generally 4-6” amounts to the north and northwest, along with pockets of 6-8” shading:

 

[Hitman]

36f here.

[J.Spin]

Powder and J.Spin - your pictures are fantastic.  I ski once or twice a year, side stepping down the steeper slopes while my kids whiz by.  I'm pretty content with that, until I see your pics, that is.  They make me want to strap on, take lessons, and get on the mountain.  Very cool.

 

Thanks Apache, I don’t think it would be a complete NNE thread without some level of visual celebration about our great snow - these mountains and all the snow that comes with them are some of the reasons that many of us are here.  On that note, it looks like this next system could bolster the mountain snowpack some more to keep the season in good shape.

[powderfreak]

I'm not impressed this morning....I think we are looking at 2-4" tops with a lot of ice. I'm feeling ice as being the main p-type in the mountains...freezing rain up top and sleet in the lower elevations.

[powderfreak]

Same here on the Sugarbush access road, dust on crust followed by a major bust...SB updated there snow report at 1:50 yesterday afternoon to announce 13-20 inches of snow incoming this weekend. Someone needs to get up extra early and change that, quick...BTV hasn't added much to their discussion either....we came up here to do some spring skiing based on the weather report 3 days ago..lol...what a mess...

Well can't blame Sugarbush about that, they were just going off the NOAA point and click forecast...though adding those values up and going public with them in advertising is a bit risky. But not everyone is as in tune with the weather like some of us. Someone actually asked me why I was downplaying it because they saw that 13-20" on SB's website...but this system hasn't made me feel all warm and fuzzy.

3-6" would be a best case scenario at this point.

[dendrite]

I'm not impressed this morning....I think we are looking at 2-4" tops with a lot of ice. I'm feeling ice as being the main p-type in the mountains...freezing rain up top and sleet in the lower elevations.

I could see some ZR high up, but I think the lower els will be mostly rain. There may be a brief window for some snow in far N VT tonight before the WAA fully engulfs them too, but it isn't pretty. At least you guys will probably whiten the mess back up by Monday...especially in the mtns. We'll have to see what the ULL decides to do as well.

[Hitman]

I'm not impressed this morning....I think we are looking at 2-4" tops with a lot of ice. I'm feeling ice as being the main p-type in the mountains...freezing rain up top and sleet in the lower elevations.

Yikes. Whatever will be, will be.

Looks like i pIcked the right weekend to have a boatload of work to do.

[dendrite]

I could see some ZR high up, but I think the lower els will be mostly rain. There may be a brief window for some snow in far N VT tonight before the WAA fully engulfs them too, but it isn't pretty. At least you guys will probably whiten the mess back up by Monday...especially in the mtns. We'll have to see what the ULL decides to do as well.

Although it's close to some ZR in the lower els tonight too. The more I look to the more of a mixed bag it may be for the northern 1/3 of VT. Could be one of those deals where it is -ZR and then you get some heavier echoes that flip it to SNPL. Sunday looks wet though.

[powderfreak]

Although it's close to some ZR in the lower els tonight too. The more I look to the more of a mixed bag it may be for the northern 1/3 of VT. Could be one of those deals where it is -ZR and then you get some heavier echoes that flip it to SNPL. Sunday looks wet though.

Agreed...looks like ZR maybe in the 950-875mb layer.

[dendrite]

Agreed...looks like ZR maybe in the 950-875mb layer.

The NAM is much colder than the euro/GFS. It would definitely be more wintry up there, but we know how those model battles usually verify.

[Lava Rock]

46f. Feels nice out.

[Hitman]

What comes after the snow.

[powderfreak]

Freezing rain and sleet...thanks elevated warm layer.

 

I just watched the 6pm BTV news and they seemed to be hitting the heavy wet snow too hard...I hope I'm wrong but their "meso-model" they ran was mostly snow and it just didn't seem right.  They were saying that at 6am tomorrow morning, most should be seeing heavy wet snow from Montpelier to Burlington and northward... I'm just not seeing it.

 

Here's the 18z NAM sounding for MPV... seeing as mountain summits are generally around 875mb up here, it looks like tomorrow morning and during the day the warmth is about that level.  Wonder if we see freezing rain at the summits while its sleeting in the lower elevations as droplets have a longer fall time to freeze?

 

[Ginx snewx]

Interior Maine is going to be buried in snow, epic pack

[powderfreak]

Interior Maine is going to be buried in snow, epic pack

 

Yeah up near FVE is going to get bombed.

[powderfreak]

18z GFS ticked a touch cooler at the H85 level...

 

[dendrite]

The NAM has been horrendous with BL temps today.

[Allenson]

Smells like a mostly rainer to me.  We'll see what happens overnight when the precip kicks in, column-wise.

 

Balmy day reaching 44, back down to 37 now.

 

Pack really ripened up today.  I'm hearing the brook down back for the first time since the last rains of January.

[Whineminster]

18z GFS ticked a touch cooler at the H85 level...

GFS.jpg

So all snow?

[J.Spin]

The afternoon updates to the advisories and snow accumulations maps are below.  There aren’t any notable changes in the advisories in Vermont, but they were pushed a bit farther south in New Hampshire and filled in over in the western side of New York:

 

 

The updated storm total snow forecast map keeps the larger anticipated totals around the spine of Northern and Central Greens and off into the Adirondacks:

 

[powderfreak]

So all snow?

 

Not a chance, haha, but was interesting... 22z RAP really doesn't like VT.  Its pretty warm here although hits the Adirondacks hard (18-24" lol on its snow grids).  I've been pretty bearish on this event overall and see no reason to change...I just don't like the messy thermal profile aloft.  If we were dealing with just surface warmth and true elevation snow, that's one thing, but I don't like the 875mb-700mb warm layer, plus marginal surface temps.

 

BTV picked up on that earlier as well...

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 648 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS

UPDATE...MAINLY TO SLOW START TIME OF PRECIPITATION BY A COUPLE OF

HOURS. PRECIPITATION HAS MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS NORTH ADAMS IN

MASS. SHOULD SEE IT MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT OVER THE

NEXT 1-2 HOURS...CENTRAL VERMONT AROUND 9 PM...BURLINGTON AREA

AROUND 10 PM...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY BY AROUND 11

PM. HEAVIEST PRECIP STILL APPEARS IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z AND

12Z. VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN VERY TRICKY WITH NEARLY

ISOTHERMAL PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO 825-MB CENTERED AROUND 0C.

DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIONAL COOLING SHOULD HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN AT

LEAST IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND ESPECIALLY

NORTHERN NEW YORK. ONE CAVEAT TO NOTE...LATEST RAP SOLUTIONS ARE

CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN OVER SNOW/SLEET FOR

MUCH OF VERMONT...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.

[MBRI]

I'm sitting in Rangeley Maine with 2 sleds. We went NW toward NH today and the snowpack is going no where soon.  Looks like I'm calling work and taking Monday off.   We are looking at 5-10"

[powderfreak]

BTV went to a warning in the Dacks...probably prudent but an interesting time to do it just prior to precip arrival. Magnitude of precipitation coming and likelyhood of remaining below freezing for most of the event though probably warrants a WSW regardless of actual p-type. RAP keeps pummeling them with 12-18".

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

826 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

NYZ030-031-034-301000-

/O.UPG.KBTV.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-140330T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0005.140330T0026Z-140330T1800Z/

SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...

DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID

826 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY. THIS REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW

YORK.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY DENSE SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY

WET SNOW AND SLEET...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY LATE

TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH

FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS

EVENING AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX WILL

TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY

SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND ICE

COVERED ROADS. ALSO...ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND MINOR TREE

DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST

TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR

VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER

RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR

FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

$$

[powderfreak]

Current temperature and dew point spread though shows the gradient...

SLK is 31/26...all set there and they aren't warming up with northerly boundary winds.

BTV is 35/27 after being 37/28, so they re dropping both T and Td.

East of the mountains though, MVL is 37/29, while 1V4 and MPV are 38/31. Neither of those obs are all that inspiring for significant frozen or freezing precip...if any in fact.