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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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Well, well, well. That's interesting. Perhaps winter '14 isn't satisfied with its grade to date.

 

That system is going to be interesting... our internal forecast is showing a lot of ice on the mountain. 

 

I like Jay Peak to Whiteface at this point... I think there will be a sharper gradient than BTV's map.  Either between here and Sugarbush or here and Jay...south of that line builds an ark, north of it needs bulldozers to move the heavy wet snow.  The NAM however would be snow from Killington northward...but its sort of on its own as the ECM looks to mix or change us even up here, same with GFS and GGEM.

 

Total QPF amounts could be quite substantial so if its not snow, its going to be a lot of liquid...like 1-3".

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That system is going to be interesting... our internal forecast is showing a lot of ice on the mountain. 

 

I like Jay Peak to Whiteface at this point... I think there will be a sharper gradient than BTV's map.  Either between here and Sugarbush or here and Jay...south of that line builds an ark, north of it needs bulldozers to move the heavy wet snow.  The NAM however would be snow from Killington northward...but its sort of on its own as the ECM looks to mix or change us even up here, same with GFS and GGEM.

 

Total QPF amounts could be quite substantial so if its not snow, its going to be a lot of liquid...like 1-3".

Hate to ride the nam, but what the heck. Wish casting ftw.

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Powder and J.Spin - your pictures are fantastic.  I ski once or twice a year, side stepping down the steeper slopes while my kids whiz by.  I'm pretty content with that, until I see your pics, that is.  They make me want to strap on, take lessons, and get on the mountain.  Very cool.

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I don't think I've ever said this before...but I'm all set.  That rain snow line for tomorrow night can push just north of Montpelier as far as I'm concerned.  Hope the mountains get crushed, though!

I have never said this before but I am all set too.  The thing that has changed for me this year is watching my deer herd.  Yesterday the little ones had so little energy they could barely walk.  Just not a patch of grass within miles and with the cold winter they have burned up so many calories. Would love to see just a few patches of grass for them.  Thought this would happen by now but the  advertised warm spell but that has turned into mid 30's and rain.  Don't know what would happen if we get a foot of heavy snow, so I really want rain.  Looks like that will happen but still a few more model runs to go.  

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I have never said this before but I am all set too.  The thing that has changed for me this year is watching my deer herd.  Yesterday the little ones had so little energy they could barely walk.  Just not a patch of grass within miles and with the cold winter they have burned up so many calories. Would love to see just a few patches of grass for them.  Thought this would happen by now but the  advertised warm spell but that has turned into mid 30's and rain.  Don't know what would happen if we get a foot of heavy snow, so I really want rain.  Looks like that will happen but still a few more model runs to go.  

 

I was just thinking of this yesterday.  Not only the deer are having issues, but the flocks of birds that have been gathering on the thin stripe of bare ground immediately surrounding my house have been amazing in their numbers. 

 

And then there's the wild turkeys.  They normally stay just down the street from me in a huge open field with a enormous red barn, but they have been up in my front yard almost every day for the past week.  There's something about one of my trees that produces crab apples that they absolutely love.  Half of them in the tree and the rest rooting through the snow to the ground beneath.  I've tried to get some pictures but they fly away as soon as I go out there.

 

As eyewall just said...BTV thinking less snow more rain now, so that's just fine.  Could be some nice totals up near the Canadian border and above 2,000', though.

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Well it looks like BTV is cutting back. Their latest snowfall forecast doesn't show anything that impressive.

 

 

The higher resolution snowfall map is pretty interesting- looks like it throttled way back.  Then you zoom in, and see 4-5" in Stowe/Waterbury, double to triple that at elevation.  We'll see how this goes tomorrow.

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The updated advisories and accumulations maps from the BTV NWS are below.  Flood Watches are present in the southern half of Vermont and areas of similar latitude, while Winter Storm Watches remain in the north.  The BTV NWS discussion states that they were not ready to commit to Winter Storm Warnings at this time because there is far too much uncertainty in the forecast:

 

28MAR14C.jpg

 

The updated storm total snow forecast map is below, and it has the look of being scaled back in all but the higher elevations and the Adirondacks:

 

28MAR14D.jpg

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The zoomed does not match the broader view, and the watch does not seem to match the point and click here in the CPV.

 

The zoomed in view hasn't updated since this morning... and well you can see on the snowfall map, that it only has 1-2" in the CPV, so that's what the grids are going to show when you point and click.

 

However, the watch is for the "possibility of 6+" so they could be forecasting something else but acknowledge the "chance" for heavier snows...and BTV specifies in the AFD that they think the CPV would be an Advisory type deal anyway.

 

I haven't been feeling all that warm and fuzzy about this one...I think its just a lot of mixed precipitation depending on time and elevation.  Snow to me looks like Adirondacks to Jay Peak to Sugarloaf.  Southern Quebec will clean up.

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TABER kills it on the AFD everytime...love the detail he puts into these.

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY.

WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM
WARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COMPLEX SCENARIO AND THE WARMING TRENDS
OBSERVED IN 12Z MODEL THERMAL PROFILES. BEST CHC FOR WARNING AMOUNT
SNOWFALL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES WL BE ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKS
AND NORTHERN GREENS BY SUNDAY.

FLOOD WATCH FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR...ORANGE...AND WESTERN ADDISON
COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT...EXPECTED RAINFALL...AND ASSOCIATED RIVER
RISES AND ICE JAM THREAT.

ANOTHER EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FCST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AND VERY COMPLICATED THERMAL
PROFILES. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES AND
ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC AND ULVL FEATURES. NAM CONTS TO BE A COOL
OUTLIER AND WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF
NORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
EMBEDDED 5H VORT ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS INTO TROF ON SATURDAY...MID/UPPER
LVLS WL QUICKLY BECOME CLOSED WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN NC. THE DEEP CLOSED FULL LATITUDE TROF AND POSITION OF SFC
LOW PRES WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES ADVECTS LLVL COLD AIR IN OUR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS COLLISION BTWN COLDER AIR TO
THE NORTH AND WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH...WL SET THE BATTLE GROUND
FOR A COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILE ACRS OUR CWA...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS
ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOW LLVL NORTHERLY WINDS ACRS THE CPV/SLV WITH
ADVECTION OF SHALLOW COLD AIR DOWN THE VALLEYS...BUT DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLW ALOFT PUSHES ABOVE 0C AIR INTO MOST OF VT AND PARTS OF
THE DACKS DURING THE EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY WITH THE PROGGED
1000 TO 500MB 540DM LINE STARTING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA ON
SAT AFTN...BUT AS WAA ALOFT DEVELOPS THIS CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
PUSHED BACK INTO THE SLV AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILE WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR BLW
FREEZING AT BTV/PBG WITH WARM LAYER AROUND 825MB OF +3C.
HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AROUND 06Z SUNDAY...PROFILE
QUICKLY COOLS AND BECOMES ISOTHERMAL NEAR 0C FROM SFC THRU
700MB...SUPPORTING MORE SNOW. BUT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE WARMING FROM THE SUN OCCURS ON SUNDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE SNOW TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN/SNOW MIX. THINKING
ADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT IS LIKELY WITH SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN CPV.
HAVE NOTICED BOTH ON
THE GFS/ECMWF 925MB TEMPS COOL BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORTING A
POTENTIAL MIXTURE WITH SLEET.

MEANWHILE...ACRS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A
MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WITH SOME MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACRS THE
HIGHER TRRN ABOVE 1800 FT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP ARRIVES. THE TRICKY PART OF THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ACRS THE
NORTHERN GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE DACKS...WHERE BOTH GFS/NAM
SUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SLEET/RAIN
FREEZING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM NOSE ON SAT NIGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE COOLING ON
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS...WOULD SUPPORT THE BEST CHC OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW.
THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACRS THE CPV WL BE SAT NIGHT...WHEN THE PRECIP RATES ARE THE HIGHEST
AND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE IS NOT A FACTOR.

ON SUNDAY...CWA CONTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION
BUT WITH BL WARMING EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACRS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMING 85H
TEMPS AND HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH LIKELY
TO CAT POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL QPF OF 0.25 TO
0.50" ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WL SLOWLY
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F WARMER VALLEYS.

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