powderfreak Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Well, well, well. That's interesting. Perhaps winter '14 isn't satisfied with its grade to date. That system is going to be interesting... our internal forecast is showing a lot of ice on the mountain. I like Jay Peak to Whiteface at this point... I think there will be a sharper gradient than BTV's map. Either between here and Sugarbush or here and Jay...south of that line builds an ark, north of it needs bulldozers to move the heavy wet snow. The NAM however would be snow from Killington northward...but its sort of on its own as the ECM looks to mix or change us even up here, same with GFS and GGEM. Total QPF amounts could be quite substantial so if its not snow, its going to be a lot of liquid...like 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Steady snow moving back in. Already dusting over. 29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 That system is going to be interesting... our internal forecast is showing a lot of ice on the mountain. I like Jay Peak to Whiteface at this point... I think there will be a sharper gradient than BTV's map. Either between here and Sugarbush or here and Jay...south of that line builds an ark, north of it needs bulldozers to move the heavy wet snow. The NAM however would be snow from Killington northward...but its sort of on its own as the ECM looks to mix or change us even up here, same with GFS and GGEM. Total QPF amounts could be quite substantial so if its not snow, its going to be a lot of liquid...like 1-3". Hate to ride the nam, but what the heck. Wish casting ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 1.2 inches in Peacham as of 7:30. Snow was moving back in right around then too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 1.4" of snow fort building snow as of 7am. Drove through a heavy sleet squall on 89 in Richmond/Williston around 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Powder and J.Spin - your pictures are fantastic. I ski once or twice a year, side stepping down the steeper slopes while my kids whiz by. I'm pretty content with that, until I see your pics, that is. They make me want to strap on, take lessons, and get on the mountain. Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Was a mix of IP/ZR/SN, but over to mostly snow now. 30.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Flakes the size of Volkswagons here in St. J at the moment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Picked up 3" prior to the change over...now almost all sleet with a few flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 We had some bursts of parachutes followed by sleet and now rain. I am looking forward to this next system, and what it might do for the ski areas. Looks like buying my pass in advance is paying off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Hats off to powderfreak by the way. He called a book end winter awhile back. It looks like that is exactly what we are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Looking forward to installing a FARS on my VP2 this wknd. Probably should have had it a long time ago. I think that might explain why some of my daily highs are a bit inflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I hate to say it, but the NAM did fairly well 24-36 hrs out on the last two events. Hoping for a white Sunday in NNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 35F and light rain showers now. Can't remember the last time it rained here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 28, 2014 Author Share Posted March 28, 2014 35F and light rain showers now. Can't remember the last time it rained here. There were several times in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I don't think I've ever said this before...but I'm all set. That rain snow line for tomorrow night can push just north of Montpelier as far as I'm concerned. Hope the mountains get crushed, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 If that ULL is modeled well I think we could see a nice period of parachutes without question. The Ski areas are likely going to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Just under 2 feet of snow on my SW facing slopes. Northern exposures and woods must have more. Glaciated snow holding a ton of moisture. Will be interesting to watch my pond the next few days, assuming we rain and not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I don't think I've ever said this before...but I'm all set. That rain snow line for tomorrow night can push just north of Montpelier as far as I'm concerned. Hope the mountains get crushed, though! I have never said this before but I am all set too. The thing that has changed for me this year is watching my deer herd. Yesterday the little ones had so little energy they could barely walk. Just not a patch of grass within miles and with the cold winter they have burned up so many calories. Would love to see just a few patches of grass for them. Thought this would happen by now but the advertised warm spell but that has turned into mid 30's and rain. Don't know what would happen if we get a foot of heavy snow, so I really want rain. Looks like that will happen but still a few more model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Well it looks like BTV is cutting back. Their latest snowfall forecast doesn't show anything that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I have never said this before but I am all set too. The thing that has changed for me this year is watching my deer herd. Yesterday the little ones had so little energy they could barely walk. Just not a patch of grass within miles and with the cold winter they have burned up so many calories. Would love to see just a few patches of grass for them. Thought this would happen by now but the advertised warm spell but that has turned into mid 30's and rain. Don't know what would happen if we get a foot of heavy snow, so I really want rain. Looks like that will happen but still a few more model runs to go. I was just thinking of this yesterday. Not only the deer are having issues, but the flocks of birds that have been gathering on the thin stripe of bare ground immediately surrounding my house have been amazing in their numbers. And then there's the wild turkeys. They normally stay just down the street from me in a huge open field with a enormous red barn, but they have been up in my front yard almost every day for the past week. There's something about one of my trees that produces crab apples that they absolutely love. Half of them in the tree and the rest rooting through the snow to the ground beneath. I've tried to get some pictures but they fly away as soon as I go out there. As eyewall just said...BTV thinking less snow more rain now, so that's just fine. Could be some nice totals up near the Canadian border and above 2,000', though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Well it looks like BTV is cutting back. Their latest snowfall forecast doesn't show anything that impressive. The higher resolution snowfall map is pretty interesting- looks like it throttled way back. Then you zoom in, and see 4-5" in Stowe/Waterbury, double to triple that at elevation. We'll see how this goes tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The updated advisories and accumulations maps from the BTV NWS are below. Flood Watches are present in the southern half of Vermont and areas of similar latitude, while Winter Storm Watches remain in the north. The BTV NWS discussion states that they were not ready to commit to Winter Storm Warnings at this time because there is far too much uncertainty in the forecast: The updated storm total snow forecast map is below, and it has the look of being scaled back in all but the higher elevations and the Adirondacks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Above Zoomed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The zoomed does not match the broader view, and the watch does not seem to match the point and click here in the CPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 The zoomed does not match the broader view, and the watch does not seem to match the point and click here in the CPV. The zoomed in view hasn't updated since this morning... and well you can see on the snowfall map, that it only has 1-2" in the CPV, so that's what the grids are going to show when you point and click. However, the watch is for the "possibility of 6+" so they could be forecasting something else but acknowledge the "chance" for heavier snows...and BTV specifies in the AFD that they think the CPV would be an Advisory type deal anyway. I haven't been feeling all that warm and fuzzy about this one...I think its just a lot of mixed precipitation depending on time and elevation. Snow to me looks like Adirondacks to Jay Peak to Sugarloaf. Southern Quebec will clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 I like this image. Hey Caledonia and Essex counties you got nothing to fret about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 TABER kills it on the AFD everytime...love the detail he puts into these. .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 340 PM EDT FRIDAY...WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERNDACKS INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERNVT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW...WITH SOME SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY.WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO UPGRADE TO WINTER STORMWARNING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN COMPLEX SCENARIO AND THE WARMING TRENDSOBSERVED IN 12Z MODEL THERMAL PROFILES. BEST CHC FOR WARNING AMOUNTSNOWFALL OF 6 OR MORE INCHES WL BE ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN OF THE DACKSAND NORTHERN GREENS BY SUNDAY.FLOOD WATCH FOR RUTLAND...WINDSOR...ORANGE...AND WESTERN ADDISONCOUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR RIVER FLOODING FROM THECOMBINATION OF SNOW MELT...EXPECTED RAINFALL...AND ASSOCIATED RIVERRISES AND ICE JAM THREAT.ANOTHER EXTREMELY CHALLENGING AND COMPLEX FCST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANTMOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION AND VERY COMPLICATED THERMALPROFILES. HAVE USED A GFS/ECMWF/SREF BLEND FOR THERMAL PROFILES ANDASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC AND ULVL FEATURES. NAM CONTS TO BE A COOLOUTLIER AND WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR HEAVY WET SNOWFALL ACRS MOST OFNORTHERN NY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT.WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATEDEMBEDDED 5H VORT ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANTTROPICAL MOISTURE/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OFMEXICO. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS INTO TROF ON SATURDAY...MID/UPPERLVLS WL QUICKLY BECOME CLOSED WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVEREASTERN NC. THE DEEP CLOSED FULL LATITUDE TROF AND POSITION OF SFCLOW PRES WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACRS THE EASTERNCONUS...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES ADVECTS LLVL COLD AIR IN OURCENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA ON SATURDAY. THIS COLLISION BTWN COLDER AIR TOTHE NORTH AND WARM/MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH...WL SET THE BATTLE GROUNDFOR A COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILE ACRS OUR CWA...AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKSALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOW LLVL NORTHERLY WINDS ACRS THE CPV/SLV WITHADVECTION OF SHALLOW COLD AIR DOWN THE VALLEYS...BUT DEEP EAST TOSOUTHEAST FLW ALOFT PUSHES ABOVE 0C AIR INTO MOST OF VT AND PARTS OFTHE DACKS DURING THE EVENT. THIS IS SHOWN NICELY WITH THE PROGGED1000 TO 500MB 540DM LINE STARTING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA ONSAT AFTN...BUT AS WAA ALOFT DEVELOPS THIS CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW LINE ISPUSHED BACK INTO THE SLV AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.SOUNDINGS SHOW A COMPLEX THERMAL PROFILE WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR BLWFREEZING AT BTV/PBG WITH WARM LAYER AROUND 825MB OF +3C.HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES AROUND 06Z SUNDAY...PROFILEQUICKLY COOLS AND BECOMES ISOTHERMAL NEAR 0C FROM SFC THRU700MB...SUPPORTING MORE SNOW. BUT AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHIFTSEASTWARD AND THE WARMING FROM THE SUN OCCURS ON SUNDAYMORNING...EXPECT THE SNOW TO CHANGE BACK TO RAIN/SNOW MIX. THINKINGADVISORY TYPE OF EVENT IS LIKELY WITH SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN CPV. HAVE NOTICED BOTH ONTHE GFS/ECMWF 925MB TEMPS COOL BTWN -2C AND -4C...SUPPORTING APOTENTIAL MIXTURE WITH SLEET.MEANWHILE...ACRS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VT THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT AMOSTLY RAIN EVENT WITH SOME MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACRS THEHIGHER TRRN ABOVE 1800 FT...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WHEN THE HEAVIESTPRECIP ARRIVES. THE TRICKY PART OF THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE ACRS THENORTHERN GREEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE DACKS...WHERE BOTH GFS/NAMSUPPORT A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SLEET/RAINFREEZING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM NOSE ON SAT NIGHT. ALSO...GIVEN THEHIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME UPSLOPE COOLING ONNORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS...WOULD SUPPORT THE BEST CHC OF 6 OR MOREINCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLACRS THE CPV WL BE SAT NIGHT...WHEN THE PRECIP RATES ARE THE HIGHESTAND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE IS NOT A FACTOR.ON SUNDAY...CWA CONTS TO BE INFLUENCED BY MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATIONBUT WITH BL WARMING EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ACRS THEHIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FT. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARMING 85HTEMPS AND HIGH LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH LIKELYTO CAT POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL QPF OF 0.25 TO0.50" ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPS WL SLOWLYWARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F WARMER VALLEYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Ah, sorry about that, guys. I never saw the earlier zoomed view and this one has the 3:07 pm time stamp. I thought it was just a more detailed display showing the expected elevation differences. Guess they will issue an updated zoomed view later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 28, 2014 Share Posted March 28, 2014 Speak of the devil...5:12 pm update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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