powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wow nice. Low up by FVE for a few hours and leftover synoptic moisture? I knew you should be excited. Yeah its nuts... there's a reason why FVE is the climo favored spot I guess, lol. Up to 13" now at 3,000ft and 8-9" at 1,500ft. Still absolutely nuking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 About 27-29mm in Peacham overnight. I will call it 1.1" and with that I pass last season's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still coming down pretty hard around Montpelier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Still coming down pretty hard around Montpelier too. Let it ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yeah I guess. I just don't know SB's climo that well. I remember large differences in the synoptic events too, like Valentine's Day with 12" base and 35" summit. They are east side like here which got more snow than the west side, so I believe it last night, just surprised at only 2" at the base I guess. well, first of all, I think SB reporting is less accurate than you are. But they are generally on the conservative side. But also, correct me if I'm wrong, but you report from 3000' while they are reporting from 4000' (they also give a number from mid mtn). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 4.7" as of 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 well, first of all, I think SB reporting is less accurate than you are. But they are generally on the conservative side. But also, correct me if I'm wrong, but you report from 3000' while they are reporting from 4000' (they also give a number from mid mtn). Yeah that's correct, their lift system goes higher up than ours, and I can't get a good enough reading (or accurate) at 3,600ft. Its usually wind blown or filling in off the cliffs above, so that's why 3,000ft works better locally here. It all varies substantially though, its never an exact science on a mountain. To be honest, Spruce Peak may get much less snow in some events and much more in other events and I'd never really know, haha. I'm sure its the same at Sugarbush where North could've gotten crushed and south not so much. Or vise versa. The snow report is more to give an idea of what to expect with the caveat that any given spot could be several inches different (higher or lower) depending on wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Its too bad that clipper has trended a bit north...now into southern Quebec for the best stuff....because that is going to have a nice little stripe of probably 6" of snow. Looks like powderfreak over to SR and SL will still get a few inches, but it could have been several inches more. Still, I don't think I'll have any complaints this weekend on conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ripping here again...just like last night...lol. Wasn't it about 80° two years ago today? Yup. Warmest ever in March for many/most NNE locations. Tuesday was my extremes day, high of 74 in 2012, low of -15 in 2014. That 89F spread is easily the greatest in my records for a particular date. March 2012 spanned 90F, with a top of 80 on 3/22 and a low of -10 on the 6th. That 80F mark gives the month a 105F spread, as 3/2/2001 touched -25. Barely made it below 30 last night as clouds/wind continued. Snow settled 3" to 43" yesterday, probably drop another 2" today, then a refresher Saturday. That event might push the total over 100", and will almost certainly (according to current thinking) provide more than the 1.2" needed to make March the 3rd month this winter with 30"+. Very like 1967 in NNE, when Dec/Feb/Mar all had just over 30" while Jan had 2". '67 had late cold, too, also 3" snow on 4/27 - transplant that kind of late-late event to NNE and, watch out Memorial Day. (Farmington COOP had only 4.3" in Jan, which ranks 121st out of 122, only 0.3" ahead of their least snowy Jan, in 1992.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yup. Warmest ever in March for many/most NNE locations. Tuesday was my extremes day, high of 74 in 2012, low of -15 in 2014. That 89F spread is easily the greatest in my records for a particular date. March 2012 spanned 90F, with a top of 80 on 3/22 and a low of -10 on the 6th. That 80F mark gives the month a 105F spread, as 3/2/2001 touched -25. Barely made it below 30 last night as clouds/wind continued. Snow settled 3" to 43" yesterday, probably drop another 2" today, then a refresher Saturday. That event might push the total over 100", and will almost certainly (according to current thinking) provide more than the 1.2" needed to make March the 3rd month this winter with 30"+. Very like 1967 in NNE, when Dec/Feb/Mar all had just over 30" while Jan had 2". '67 had late cold, too, also 3" snow on 4/27 - transplant that kind of late-late event to NNE and, watch out Memorial Day. (Farmington COOP had only 4.3" in Jan, which ranks 121st out of 122, only 0.3" ahead of their least snowy Jan, in 1992.) 1967 also had a snow event on May 8-9....two in the month of May is pretty remarkable. Not sure how far north that one got, but I know some of the monadnocks got 4-6" in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 1967 also had a snow event on May 8-9....two in the month of May is pretty remarkable. Not sure how far north that one got, but I know some of the monadnocks got 4-6" in that. Most of NNE had accumulating snow from that event, even BTV with 2.6". Fort Kent had 8" and CAR had 10.6" from that one plus a 2nd snowfall on 5/10. More anomalous to me was 6" at Pinkham on 5/26-27. Some other VT/NH locations with elevation got whitened in that cold northeaster as well. Back to April - Farmington's latest day with max 32 or below was 4/19/67, accompanied by 9" (11" 18-19.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 someone at BTV reading our discussion??? IT WAS A CLASSIC UNBLOCKED (FROUDE NUMBERS > 1) UPSLOPE FLOW EVENTACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS, WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW ACTUALLY FALLSJUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS LEADS TO SOMESIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN ACCUMULATIONS OVER SMALL DISTANCES.SPOTTER IN THE STOWE AREA REPORTS ABOUT 4" IN TOWN, ALMOST 9" AT1500FT ELEVATION CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN, AND 13" AT 3000FTELEVATION ON THE EAST SLOPE OF MT MANSFIELD. MEANWHILE ON THEWESTERN SLOPES OF MT MANSFIELD, ACCUMULATIONS WERE ONLY IN THE 1/2TO 2" RANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 ^ Yeah, they browse the forum and at least one member here at Americanwx works there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 ^ Yeah, they browse the forum and at least one member here at Americanwx works there. But doesn't use his red tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Yeah its nuts... there's a reason why FVE is the climo favored spot I guess, lol. Up to 13" now at 3,000ft and 8-9" at 1,500ft. Still absolutely nuking. New Image2.JPG New Image1.JPG New Image3.JPG Nice stuff! Are those trails well known trails, or are those more unknown..but you are allowed to use them regardless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 someone at BTV reading our discussion??? IT WAS A CLASSIC UNBLOCKED (FROUDE NUMBERS > 1) UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS, WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS LEADS TO SOME SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN ACCUMULATIONS OVER SMALL DISTANCES. SPOTTER IN THE STOWE AREA REPORTS ABOUT 4" IN TOWN, ALMOST 9" AT 1500FT ELEVATION CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN, AND 13" AT 3000FT ELEVATION ON THE EAST SLOPE OF MT MANSFIELD. MEANWHILE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF MT MANSFIELD, ACCUMULATIONS WERE ONLY IN THE 1/2 TO 2" RANGE. I was emailing with them this morning...I've gotten to know a couple of them through skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Nice stuff! Are those trails well known trails, or are those more unknown..but you are allowed to use them regardless? Those were the very well known Nosedive Glades. To be honest, I love these storms because this was the lowest hype powder day of the season by far. Literally no one knew what happened up here overnight with only 2-5" falling in area towns and absolutely nothing falling west of the Spine towards Burlington and those suburbs. Say that last big nor'easter that hammered us, there were people lining up over an hour before the lift opened with 100-200 people waiting by the time it opened....this morning there were about 15-20 people when the lift opened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 someone at BTV reading our discussion??? IT WAS A CLASSIC UNBLOCKED (FROUDE NUMBERS > 1) UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS, WHERE MOST OF THE SNOW ACTUALLY FALLS JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS LEADS TO SOME SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN ACCUMULATIONS OVER SMALL DISTANCES. SPOTTER IN THE STOWE AREA REPORTS ABOUT 4" IN TOWN, ALMOST 9" AT 1500FT ELEVATION CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAIN, AND 13" AT 3000FT ELEVATION ON THE EAST SLOPE OF MT MANSFIELD. MEANWHILE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF MT MANSFIELD, ACCUMULATIONS WERE ONLY IN THE 1/2 TO 2" RANGE. This was where the 13" report came from... its a little outdated now, as we'll probably finish around 14" or so unless this ramps back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 MAV has -18F at BML for 3/25. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I was emailing with them this morning...I've gotten to know a couple of them through skiing. funny. I think that qualifies as a shout out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Those were the very well known Nosedive Glades. To be honest, I love these storms because this was the lowest hype powder day of the season by far. Literally no one knew what happened up here overnight with only 2-5" falling in area towns and absolutely nothing falling west of the Spine towards Burlington and those suburbs. Say that last big nor'easter that hammered us, there were people lining up over an hour before the lift opened with 100-200 people waiting by the time it opened....this morning there were about 15-20 people when the lift opened. plus, this is the best kind of blower powder (I presume). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 funny. I think that qualifies as a shout out. They've got a good staff over there at BTV...the skiers/riders in the office were cringing at the photos, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 had over 5" on the ground this morning probably some overnight settling bringing it down from what was probably closer to 6". Went into Burlington around 7:30 AM where the snow shut off around Bolton Flats. Back here now at 1PM, we have another ~1.5" down on a cleared board. light snow still going here. Definitely an over performer. Stowe and Smuggs are now sitting around 250" or so for the season- not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 BTV issued the long term flood outlook yesterday. It could get interesting WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT1047 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK /7/...THIS IS THE SEVENTH FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2014 WINTER/SPRINGSEASON. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY THROUGH THEWINTER AND SPRING BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTONVERMONT TO SUMMARIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT AND BREAKUP OF RIVER ICE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT, AND NORTHERNNEW YORK....OVERVIEW...THE LONG TERM SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERNVERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK IS ABOVE NORMAL.SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION IS ABOVE NORMAL, AND RIVER ICE REMAINSEXTENSIVE. AS MELT IS DELAYED FURTHER INTO SPRING THE PROBABILITYINCREASES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP OR RAINFALL EPISODE. IN THENEAR TERM THE PROBABILITY OF FLOODING IS LOW AS TEMPERATURESREMAIN TOO COOL TO GENERATE SNOWMELT THAT WOULD CAUSE FLOODING ORBREAK UP RIVER ICE....SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENT...SNOW DEPTHS WERE ONE TO TWO FEET IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAINVALLEYS, AS WELL AS OTHER VALLEY FLOORS BELOW 1000 FEET. SNOWDEPTHS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH ELEVATION, AND WERE TWO TO FOUR FEETDEEP FROM 1000 TO 2500 FEET ELEVATION. ABOVE 2500 FEET SNOW DEPTHSWERE FOUR TO OVER SIX FEET DEEP. THESE SNOW DEPTHS ARE ABOVENORMAL.SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, OR THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID WATER HELD IN THESNOWPACK, WAS ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. VALLEY FLOORS, INCLUDING THECHAMPLAIN VALLEY, HELD TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF LIQUID WATER. FROM1000 TO 2500 FEET ELEVATION THE SNOW PACK CONTAINED FOUR TO EIGHTINCHES OF WATER. ABOVE 2500 FEET 8 INCHES TO A FOOT OF WATER WASHELD IN THE SNOWPACK. MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABOVE 3000 FEET CONTAINED AVERY IMPRESSIVE FOOT TO 18 INCHES OF LIQUID WATER.OVERALL THE SNOW PACK CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS COLD AND POWDERY. INORDER TO GET THE SPRING MELT INTO FULL SWING, THE SNOW PACK MUSTUNDERGO A RIPENING PROCESS, WHERE IT WARMS TO NEAR FREEZING ANDBECOMES MORE DENSE AND SLUSHY....RIVER AND SOIL CONDITIONS...NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS SHOW VERMONT AND NORTHERNNEW YORK WITH NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER, RIVERFLOWS ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ARE GENERALLY AT OR BELOWNORMAL FOR MID-MARCH DUE TO THE COLD WEATHER AND LIMITED RUNOFFOVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. NORMALLY BY THIS TIME OF YEAR THE SPRINGMELT HAS BEGUN AND RIVERS WOULD BE RUNNING HIGHER.RIVER ICE IS STILL WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THICK ANDCOMPLETE COVERAGE ON MOST MAINSTEM CHANNELS. SOLID 1 TO 2 FOOT ICETHICKNESSES ARE PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AND HAS STRONGSTRUCTURAL INTEGRITY DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THEPAST FEW MONTHS. THERE ARE ALSO NUMEROUS STATIONARY ICE JAMS LEFTIN PLACE AFTER THE JANUARY THAW, AND THOSE JAMS COULD BECOME THEFOCUS FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING AND/OR FLOODING CONCERNS ONCE THELARGE-SCALE MELT COMMENCES THIS SPRING....WEATHER OUTLOOK...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SHOW MORE VARIABILITY AS STRONGER MARCHSUNSHINE TEMPERS THE LINGERING COLD. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WARM-UPOR LARGE-SCALE THAWING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWOWEEKS. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGHTHE PERIOD, BUT NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.THUS SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT OR MOVEMENT OF RIVER ICE IS NOT FORECAST.THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALIDMARCH 19 TO 27 CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TOABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION....SUMMARY...IN SUMMARY, THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THEABOVE NORMAL SNOW PACK AND PERSISTENT ICE COVER. FLOODING IS NOTEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. WHILE SOME VARIABILITY INTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, ON AVERAGE READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RUNSLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL GENERALLY PREVENT SNOWMELT ANDRUNOFF INTO RIVERS.WHILE SNOWPACK AND ICE COVER SET THE BACKGROUND CONDITIONS, SPRINGFLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE THAW.IT USUALLY TAKES WARM TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVYRAINFALL TO REALIZE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. WHILE THIS REMAINS TO BESEEN...THE LONGER THE SPRING MELT IS DELAYED THE BETTER THE CHANCESFOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND A PRECIPITATION EPISODE IN THE FORM OFRAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAYAPRIL 3.FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE ACCESS CURRENT WEATHER CONDITIONS ANDFORECASTS ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/BTV.$$HANSON/NASH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That flood outlook fits with my observations on the mountain from last Tuesday (which get reported to them). I've been thinking the longer the thaw gets delayed the more interesting the flood potential gets...because at some point this is going to change and the water will start running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So, 4.5" from last night here. BTV has hoisted WWA's for the extreme northern tier of VT counties for tomorrow for 3-6". Looks like this trended a bit north today. If I don't have to go out and snow blow for a third day in a row, that's fine with me. This die-hard wienie is ready for spring...maybe I'm not as die-hard as I thought...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That flood outlook fits with my observations on the mountain from last Tuesday (which get reported to them). I've been thinking the longer the thaw gets delayed the more interesting the flood potential gets...because at some point this is going to change and the water will start running. In Maine the entire Kennebec drainage is top 25% for historic snow water equivalent, along with most of the Penobscot watershed. Lots of 6-10" water content colors on the map, and the sampling was done before yesterday's storm added another inch or so. As always, it depends on how the weather pans out. In 2008 most of Maine was top 10% up thru early April, then mid-April dry warmth drew nearly all the snow from the central Maine and mountain watersheds before the 3"+ rain arrived in late month, so flooding was minor. In the St.John country, where the even deeper snowpack hung on a week or so longer, folks were less fortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Heavy deep deep winter at Sunday River today.Snow squalls all day 20s and winds to 50,Been fun being up where you guys have winter. Going to miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Heavy deep deep winter at Sunday River today.Snow squalls all day 20s and winds to 50,Been fun being up where you guys have winter. Going to miss it Awesome, I'll be up there in a few hours. Pretty pumped. Looks like a little refresher tomorrow of a few inches and then cold winter day on Sunday with potential snow showers around...but perhaps some sun at times as well to open up the great views. Snow depth there must be in the 45-50" range at the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So, 4.5" from last night here. BTV has hoisted WWA's for the extreme northern tier of VT counties for tomorrow for 3-6". Looks like this trended a bit north today. If I don't have to go out and snow blow for a third day in a row, that's fine with me. This die-hard wienie is ready for spring...maybe I'm not as die-hard as I thought...lol. Oh dude, I'm all done. I love me some winter but it's been a grind for me this year--too much work and not enough play. Given the snow-water equivelent though, a nice gradual thaw without much rain is what I'm hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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