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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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Good upslope potential tonight. Upper level low, good springtime lapse rates, moist low levels, CAA on decently strong NW flow...has a nice appeal overnight for the mountains.

even down my way? 

BTV mentioned you up to Jay.

fwiw-good to hear you utter words of confidence.  been missing this season.

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even down my way? 

BTV mentioned you up to Jay.

fwiw-good to hear you utter words of confidence.  been missing this season.

 

I think Sugarbush-Mt Ellen stands just as good a chance, maybe slightly less, but the flow is more westerly for a while which can hit down there, too.  I'd say your good for 2-3" down there, with maybe 3-4" up here.

 

This is the overnight QPF off the BTV4 model.

 

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BTV's AFD this afternoon.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN WEATHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE ANTICIPATED SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME PRIMARILY TERRAIN
DRIVEN AS THE SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTS THE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UPSLOPE ACROSS THE `DACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED ALL NIGHT, SO
THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.

GIVEN THE OROGRAPHICS PLAYING A BIG ROLE, I USED A BLEND OF ALL
THE LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS FOR CREATING THE QPF FIELDS. ENDED UP
WITH TOTALS AROUND 0.25" ACROSS THE DACKS AND MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTH- CENTRAL VERMONT. RUNNING THOSE AMOUNTS THROUGH
VARIOUS SNOW-LIQUID RATIO ESTIMATES, I KEPT COMING UP WITH
SNOWFALL GENERALLY IN THE 3-4" RANGE -- WITH SPOT TOTALS
AROUND 5 INCHES ON THE EASTERN SLOPE OF MT MANSFIELD AND
AROUND JAY PEAK. WITH THE SNOW GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS STAYING
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 4", WILL NOT BE RAISING ANY
HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE.

QUITE A VARIATION IN THE PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) -- WITH 70%+ ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS DOWN TO THE
30-40% RANGE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VA

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I think Sugarbush-Mt Ellen stands just as good a chance, maybe slightly less, but the flow is more westerly for a while which can hit down there, too.  I'd say your good for 2-3" down there, with maybe 3-4" up here.

 

This is the overnight QPF off the BTV4 model.

 

attachicon.gifBTV_4.png

Thanks. Should be good conditions this weekend. Things break right could get another powder day. That would bring me to 7 on the ec, 1 shy of my goal of 8.

I think you guys were too quick to grade the winter. Still have some late semester cramming to do, but could get the grade up. Some thing to be said for a wintry march and spring skiing into May.

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Thanks. Should be good conditions this weekend. Things break right could get another powder day. That would bring me to 7 on the ec, 1 shy of my goal of 8.

I think you guys were too quick to grade the winter. Still have some late semester cramming to do, but could get the grade up. Some thing to be said for a wintry march and spring skiing into May.

I think for some (I'm talking normal people haha), that makes it worse. Most people want winter when its winter, and spring when its spring.

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Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.26” L.E.

 

An additional 0.6” of snow fell today to add to this event.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0

Snow Density: 8.3% H2O

Temperature: 36.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (10-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

 

The snow has been picking up as we’ve moved into the evening, with an additional 0.7” down on the boards.  There are some stronger echoes in the flow that are coinciding with some of the heavier snowfall:

 

20MAR14A.gif

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I think you guys were too quick to grade the winter. Still have some late semester cramming to do, but could get the grade up. Something to be said for a wintry march and spring skiing into May.

 

Absolutely, I didn’t mean in any way to imply that the D+ I gave was a final grade, it just represented how the season had performed through that point.  March and April can be fantastic for snow here in NNE.  Indeed this March has already been quite good with respect to snowfall and snow preservation, and as the month will be coming in above average in terms of snowfall, it’s going to be the first one since November to do so.  I’d say it’s already been just about enough to raise the season’s grade to a C-, but we’ll just have to see where the rest of the month and April take us.  We still need close to 30 inches here before the end of the season to reach average snowfall, so there’s definitely some work to be done by Mother Nature.  However, this season has been making quite a recovery, already exceeded the total season snowfall attained in 2011-2012 (115.3”) and 2009-2010 (127.7”).

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downtown Waterbury had ~1.5" or so  since 6pm.  Here at home, it's more like 2.5" and definitely not as wet/dense.  It's coming down nicely, and I'd imagine we'd see an over performer if this keeps up.

 

edit: we're a hair under 3" here.  It's a pretty lumpy snow as the big parachutes make for an inconsistent surface.  At higher elevation, with this snow growth, it should be nice fluff.    

 

This is the kind of night that the Northern Greens are known for.

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The clipper on Saturday is pretty nice looking...the soundings look pretty favorable for some nice ratios. Hopefully that stays on guidance. Could see a narrow stripe of 4-6" from N VT over to N NH and NW ME.

 

I'll certainly take some nice fluff at Sunday River to go on top of the 12" of denser snow they got last night.

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downtown Waterbury had ~1.5" or so since 6pm. Here at home, it's more like 2.5" and definitely not as wet/dense. It's coming down nicely, and I'd imagine we'd see an over performer if this keeps up.

edit: we're a hair under 3" here. It's a pretty lumpy snow as the big parachutes make for an inconsistent surface. At higher elevation, with this snow growth, it should be nice fluff.

This is the kind of night that the Northern Greens are known for.

Wow nice...only 0.5-0.7" here but has been ramping up in the past 30 minutes. There was a pretty strong band in the Waterbury area on composite radar that sort of keeps training over the same areas.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

VTZ003-006-008-016>018-210600-

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...

MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...

RIPTON

909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...

AT 909 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING A PERSISTENT AREA OF

SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON

COUNTIES AS WELL AS MOST OF ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON

COUNTIES IN VERMONT. WITH WIND FLOW ALMOST DUE WEST...EXPECTING

THESE AREAS TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...

ESPECIALLY IN THE STOWE AND WATERBURY AREAS. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE

CAUTION IF ON AREA ROADWAYS.

$$

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

VTZ003-006-008-016>018-210600-

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...

MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...

RIPTON

909 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL VERMONT...

AT 909 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING A PERSISTENT AREA OF

SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FRANKLIN...CHITTENDEN AND ADDISON

COUNTIES AS WELL AS MOST OF ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON

COUNTIES IN VERMONT. WITH WIND FLOW ALMOST DUE WEST...EXPECTING

THESE AREAS TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...

ESPECIALLY IN THE STOWE AND WATERBURY AREAS. TRAVELERS SHOULD USE

CAUTION IF ON AREA ROADWAYS.

$$

 

yeah, it's actually cranking here.  We've probably picked up close to an inch since my last post.  sitting at 3.5"+ now, and the 4" mark is not far away given the upstream look.

 

great night out there!   

 

edit: 3.9" and lightening up with smaller flakes.  But upstream looks to be solid still.

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Holy sheeeet!

 

Mansfield got absolutely bombed overnight.  I'm reporting 7-11" overnight but that may be low-balling it based on the groomer reports up high.  We were at 7.5" an hour ago at the base, and are now 8" or so easy.

 

My drive up here this morning was the shadiest I've had all winter...full upslope blizzard conditions.  Like a Lake Effect band with 1-2"/hr rates and wind but huge flakes so the vis comes way down.

 

I had to stop several times in the middle of the road to let the vis come back up.  Those are my headlights reflecting back at me in a whiteout.

 

 

7.5" at 5:30am in the parking lot.  Snowstake was between 7-8" but seeing quite a bit of drifting up one side of the stake.

 

 

Just ripping snow out there, plowing has the big trucks out this morning.

 

 

 

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Event totals: 4.4” Snow/0.32” L.E.

 

1.5” of snow fell throughout the night, although the intensity of snowfall picked up and accumulations appeared even more robust as I headed eastward toward the center of Waterbury.  To the west, I didn’t really see much going on along the western slopes, and it’s just cloudy here in Burlington.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (5-6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

 

The snow from this storm continues to pile up in the local mountains, already passing a foot in some places.  The north to south listing of updated storm totals from the Vermont ski areas are below.

 

Jay Peak: 9”

Burke: 9”

Smuggler’s Notch: 6”

Stowe: 13”

Bolton Valley: 8”

Mad River Glen: 8”

Sugarbush: 14”

Pico: 4”

Killington: 4”

Okemo: 8”

Bromley: 3”

Stratton: 5”

Mount Snow: 5”

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Event totals: 4.4” Snow/0.32” L.E.

 

1.5” of snow fell throughout the night, although the intensity of snowfall picked up and accumulations appeared even more robust as I headed eastward toward the center of Waterbury.  To the west, I didn’t really see much going on along the western slopes, and it’s just cloudy here in Burlington.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (5-6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

 

The snow from this storm continues to pile up in the local mountains, already passing a foot in some places.  The north to south listing of updated storm totals from the Vermont ski areas are below.

 

Jay Peak: 9”

Burke: 9”

Smuggler’s Notch: 6”

Stowe: 13”

Bolton Valley: 8”

Mad River Glen: 8”

Sugarbush: 14”

Pico: 4”

Killington: 4”

Okemo: 8”

Bromley: 3”

Stratton: 5”

Mount Snow: 5”

Holy dendrites! Jay peak isnt reporting the most. Someone in marketing must have fallen asleep. Heads will roll.

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That kind of discrepancy is not uncommon for these upslope events.

Yeah I guess. I just don't know SB's climo that well. I remember large differences in the synoptic events too, like Valentine's Day with 12" base and 35" summit. They are east side like here which got more snow than the west side, so I believe it last night, just surprised at only 2" at the base I guess.

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Holy sheeeet!

 

Mansfield got absolutely bombed overnight.  I'm reporting 7-11" overnight but that may be low-balling it based on the groomer reports up high.  We were at 7.5" an hour ago at the base, and are now 8" or so easy.

 

My drive up here this morning was the shadiest I've had all winter...full upslope blizzard conditions.  Like a Lake Effect band with 1-2"/hr rates and wind but huge flakes so the vis comes way down.

 

I had to stop several times in the middle of the road to let the vis come back up.  Those are my headlights reflecting back at me in a whiteout.

 

attachicon.gifMarch22b.JPG

 

7.5" at 5:30am in the parking lot.  Snowstake was between 7-8" but seeing quite a bit of drifting up one side of the stake.

 

attachicon.gifMarch21a.JPG

 

Just ripping snow out there, plowing has the big trucks out this morning.

 

attachicon.gifMarch23e.JPG

 

attachicon.gifMarch22c.JPG

 

attachicon.gifMarch23d.JPG

 

 

Wow nice.

 

 

 

Low up by FVE for a few hours and leftover synoptic moisture? I knew you should be excited.

 

 

 

f06.gif

 

f06.gif

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