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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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Two years ago tomorrow marked the beginning of the greatest 5 days of March in Vermont history. High Temperatures of 76, 79, 80, 81, 81[/size]

mekster, nopoles, and I were up at LSC in '98. That was a pretty nice finish, but 2012 definitely tops it thanks to the amount of sun. Plus we were already past mud season too while '98 was a mess with the flooding.
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As a new part-time NNE resident and huge weenie, I've noticed that there seems to be some significant discrepancies between GYX AFD and their P&C forecasts. For instance, with this first system, the discussion says snow away from the coast, but this is the forecast for Bartlett. Why is that? Bartlett is certainly not on the coast... 

 

  • Snow likely, possibly mixed with rain before 7pm, then snow. Low around 25. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • ThursdayRain and snow before 2pm, then rain showers likely. High near 43. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  • Thursday NightA chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10pm and 11pm, then a chance of snow showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%
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Winter Weather Advisories are in place for the upcoming low pressure system that is developing back toward the Great Lakes.  The advisories map looks a bit fragmented with only the southern part of the Adirondacks covered, and Lamoille County not included here in Vermont:

 

 19MAR14A.jpg

 

The BTV storm total snow forecast map is below, with the BTV NWS discussion mentioning a general 2-5” of accumulation:

 

19MAR14B.jpg

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mekster, nopoles, and I were up at LSC in '98. That was a pretty nice finish, but 2012 definitely tops it thanks to the amount of sun. Plus we were already past mud season too while '98 was a mess with the flooding.

 

2012 reached essentially all of NNE, while 1998 didn't make it to the far north.  My work had me on State land (Scraggly Lake) 20 miles NW of Patten on 3/30-31/98, and it was two days of mid-30s dz and fog.  CAR reached the 50s on 3/30 but had 0.8" snow on the 31st.  They peaked at 75 in 3/2012.

 

Milder morning, but still managed to sneak a bit below zero, so today will run -10 departure rather than yesterday's -20.

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CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A MODEST NW UPSLOPE SNOW
EVENT THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AM FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
AND NRN GREENS. DEEP-LAYER RH FIELDS REMAIN FAVORABLE AS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NWLY. OROGRAPHICALLY UNBLOCKED FLOW WILL FAVOR SNOWFALL ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREENS EWD INTO CENTRAL VT
COMMUNITIES. INDICATED LIKELY POPS (60-75%) ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE UP TO
3-6" ALONG THE SUMMITS FROM FROM JAY PEAK TO MT. MANSFIELD.

 

That is in addition to accumulations from the low tonight into tomorrow, no?

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Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.21” L.E.

 

The snow that started yesterday evening left 2.3” on the board as of this morning.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.21 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.0

Snow Density: 9.1% H2O

Temperature: 32.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

 

It appears as though it was notably warmer off to the west toward the Champlain Valley – I just spoke to a colleague from Richmond who said it was 40 F at his place this morning with just rain, no snow accumulation.

 

The north to south listing of available storm totals from the Vermont ski areas so far with this system are below.  It’s been an interesting distribution of snowfall thus far with generally 2-3” amounts in the northern half of the state, 3-7” amounts in the southern half, and somehow the Killington/Pico area coming in with just a trace:

 

Jay Peak: 2”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 2”

Bolton Valley: 2”

Mad River Glen: 3”

Sugarbush: 4”

Pico: T”

Killington: T”

Okemo: 7”

Bromley: 3”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 5”

Mount Snow: 5”

 

Of note with respect to my weather records, while snowfall is still about 1 ½ feet below average through this point in the season, it has certainly been an active one.  The current event marks the 53rd accumulating storm of the season here, which ties 2007-2008 for tops in that metric.

 

There is continued potential for snow due the current system, with the BTV NWS mentioning the possibility of several inches of accumulation in the Adirondacks, as well as the Central and Northern Green Mountains due to upslope snow on the back side.  Beyond that, the next opportunities mentioned in the forecast discussion appear to be tomorrow night into Saturday with an Alberta Clipper system, and then possible light snow from a midweek coastal system.

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Best overperformer in years - forecast as of yesterday afternoon was 3-5", snow began about 7:30 last night and by 7 this morning 13.0" new (1.16" LE) with SN-, which was switching to IP when I headed in to work at 7:30. Only about 3" near the river in AUG, with moderate rain at 8:30 which should finish up in the next 20-30 minutes. Peek-a-boo snowbanks at home, 46" at the snow stake, though that will probably be 3-4" lower this evening if we get the upper 30s and sun (and perhaps a sharp dose of IP/ZR going thru there atm.) Highest report I've seen is from Wilton, 2 towns to my west, with 14".

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