NNE Winter Part 3

[eyewall]

By the way I need to say NWS did a fantastic job with the most recent storm since I was all too quick to point out the opposite in the past. As I am discovering the terrain and small scale factors not easy to work with around here. They are in a tough position as a result. None the less they provide us with a great service.

[eyewall]

The first part was all elevation dependent...like the 1-4pm snows, sounds like maybe 2" at 1,500ft.

 

Yeah you could see it this afternoon looking at the Greens, and by looking up. Your pics from this afternoon definitely showed it as well. Ours came following that graupel shower just before sunset.

[Hitman]

By the way I need to say NWS did a fantastic job with the most recent storm since I was all too quick to point out the opposite in the past. As I am discovering the terrain and small scale factors not easy to work with around here. They are in a tough position as a result. None the less they provide us with a great service.

Not to mention, they forecast to a population that is particularly weather dependent with all the outdoor activities.

[Hitman]

Got about quarter inch of graupel otg at the house. Hoping there's more fluff up top.

Mashed potatoes down in the lower elevations today. I think the upper mtn stayed relatively dry. Skiing was quite good.

Got some video from Thursday that I haven't been able to upload yet. Also, did actually get some frostbite/wind burn from Thursday morning.

[J.Spin]

Snow just started here at the base of the mountain.  Looks like we'll avoid any rain.

 

Really steep lapse rates out there right now.

 

We were up at Bolton from about mid morning through mid afternoon, and the snow was showery at times, but the trend was definitely toward snowier as time went on.  I’ve got a couple of shots from below around midday:

 

 

 

By the time we left around mid afternoon and it was really dumping up there – accumulation on the road was down to ~1,500’ and snow/mix was down to ~1,000’.  It was still just rain down here in the bottom of the Winooski Valley at 500’, but it sure is snow now.  We were watching a movie for a couple of hours, and I really hadn’t even thought about what was going on outside until I checked in here and saw the talk about the snow.  I looked outside to find it dumping in the 1”/hr range.  I’m not sure when it really started cranking, but there’s roughly 2” down as of 10:00 P.M.  It could be another nice day on the slopes tomorrow.

[CardinalWinds]

Absolutely ripping out there...at least an inch down in the last hour.

[J.Spin]

Jspin are those 30 year climo averages you are comparing against?

 

Ginx, you make a great point, indeed my data are only derived from 7-year averages.  However, if I had the 30-year average for my location, it would likely just make the current situation look even worse, and we’ll see the data to support that below.

 

I think people are under the false impression that the past 5, 10, or 15 winter seasons up here along the spine of the Northern Greens have somehow been snowier than the long term average, but based on the best climate data we have for the higher elevations in the area, that’s not the case.  If anything, it’s been less snowy in recent seasons compared to the long term average.  The impression of a recent snowfall boon may stem from the fact that BTV has apparently seen an above average snowfall stretch in recent years (if someone wants to grab those data for comparison, that would be great).  However, I think people have to forget about the notion of trying to use BTV as any sort of surrogate climate site for what’s going on in the local mountains; despite its relative geographic proximity, it’s becoming very obvious that it’s simply a different climate.  It’s also possible that people have the impression that the last decade or so has been snowy, simply because of the exploding pace of information exchange on the internet causing much more reporting about the prodigious snowfall around here.  Twenty years ago, all these instantly available trip reports, pictures, video, data, etc., were either non-existent, or present at just a small fraction of what is available now.  I can remember a day back in the early 90s when one of my roommates, who was a ski instructor at Bolton, called down to me at work in Burlington to tell me that he was floating through two feet of champagne that just fell.  He expressed how he and the other instructors were having to time their breathing while they were skiing because the snow was so light and deep, and it was still snowing at probably 2-3”/hr.  Down in the Champlain Valley, we had no clue about all that powder, because it was probably just cloudy, or maybe even partly sunny where we were.  Obviously that’s just one example, but it happens frequently enough.  Nowadays, we will hear about upslope snow like that in the blink of an eye through tweets, seeing it on all the available online radar images, or getting a call from a cell phone.  Remember, back in the early 90s, people didn’t typically have cell phones with them all the time.  For my roommate to call me, it actually meant coming in off the hill and calling on one of the land lines.

 

One can obviously debate about what is causing the perception of a snowy regime around here, but let’s forget about any anecdotal stuff and look at the data.  Clearly the climate data for BTV won’t cut it for assessing the local mountains, but fortunately we have the Mt. Mansfield Co-op site.  We know that site doesn’t use the most optimal method to measure snowfall, so the numbers are low, but what they do have, as far as we’re aware from conversations that Powderfreak has had with people in the know, is consistency in data collection over the past 60 years.  Here are the averages for seasonal snowfall at the Mt. Mansfield Co-op site over different periods:

 

Period of record (’54-’55 – ’12-’13):  208.3”

Past 30 seasons (’83-’84 – ’12-’13):  201.0”

Past 15 seasons (’98-’99 – ’12-’13):  207.7”

Past 10 seasons (’03-’04 – ’12-’13):  196.9”

Past 7 seasons (06-’07 – ’12-’13):  195.8”

Past 5 seasons (’08-’09 – ’12-’13):  177.5”

 

If anything, the most plausible assessment would be that snowfall has been worse than the long term average as of late, but based on the S.D. values for the above data being in the 30-60” range, it’s probably only the last value that has any chance of being statistically different from the long term mean.

 

So how does this apply to my data?  All I know is that my data seem to correlate quite well with what goes on in the local mountains here, typically running in the range of 50% of the snowfall that the resorts report.  Obviously without the actual data, we can’t know for sure, but I just don’t see a huge spike in the Mt. Mansfield Co-op site data to make me suspect that my data set from the past 7 years are somehow way above the long-term mean.  The fact that the snowfall at Bolton and Stowe has been notably low this season, in line with mine, just seems to corroborate this assertion.

 

So anyway, based on the data in hand, I don’t think my assignment of a D+ is all that harsh.  I think it would be very hard, based on this season’s data thus far that I detailed in the previous post, to somehow make a call that was above average.  That sets the ceiling at a straight C right there.  And, since I’m going to go with marginally below average, but not horribly so thanks to some recent redemptions, knocking it down 2/3 of a grade below average doesn’t seem unreasonable.

 

Of course it’s all in good fun, but that’s some of the justification I used for the grade.

[mreaves]

Wow snowing hard with over an inch down. Got up to 44F but we didn't get much rain, just a few snow showers this afternoon with a little rain mixed in.

As for the grading, I think PF and JSpin have covered the snowfall deficit in the mountains pretty well. The normal upslope they get hasn't been there. Away from the spine like I am doesn't benefit from upslope nearly as much so the actual amount of snow we have received isn't that far from normal or is actually above in Allenson's area. The problem that I have had with this winter was the alternating cutter - brutal cold pattern we had in January. It left much of the area with too little snow cover to provide many recreational opportunities. Overall since the beginning of February it has been much better and even if there isn't much snow in January, at least it was cold, which is preferable to warm, at least to me.

[Ginx snewx]

Ginx, you make a great point, indeed my data are only derived from 7-year averages. However, if I had the 30-year average for my location, it would likely just make the current situation look even worse, and we’ll see the data to support that below.

I think people are under the false impression that the past 5, 10, or 15 winter seasons up here along the spine of the Northern Greens have somehow been snowier than the long term average, but based on the best climate data we have for the higher elevations in the area, that’s not the case. If anything, it’s been less snowy in recent seasons compared to the long term average. The impression of a recent snowfall boon may stem from the fact that BTV has apparently seen an above average snowfall stretch in recent years (if someone wants to grab those data for comparison, that would be great). However, I think people have to forget about the notion of trying to use BTV as any sort of surrogate climate site for what’s going on in the local mountains; despite its relative geographic proximity, it’s becoming very obvious that it’s simply a different climate. It’s also possible that people have the impression that the last decade or so has been snowy, simply because of the exploding pace of information exchange on the internet causing much more reporting about the prodigious snowfall around here. Twenty years ago, all these instantly available trip reports, pictures, video, data, etc., were either non-existent, or present at just a small fraction of what is available now. I can remember a day back in the early 90s when one of my roommates, who was a ski instructor at Bolton, called down to me at work in Burlington to tell me that he was floating through two feet of champagne that just fell. He expressed how he and the other instructors were having to time their breathing while they were skiing because the snow was so light and deep, and it was still snowing at probably 2-3”/hr. Down in the Champlain Valley, we had no clue about all that powder, because it was probably just cloudy, or maybe even partly sunny where we were. Obviously that’s just one example, but it happens frequently enough. Nowadays, we will hear about upslope snow like that in the blink of an eye through tweets, seeing it on all the available online radar images, or getting a call from a cell phone. Remember, back in the early 90s, people didn’t typically have cell phones with them all the time. For my roommate to call me, it actually meant coming in off the hill and calling on one of the land lines.

One can obviously debate about what is causing the perception of a snowy regime around here, but let’s forget about any anecdotal stuff and look at the data. Clearly the climate data for BTV won’t cut it for assessing the local mountains, but fortunately we have the Mt. Mansfield Co-op site. We know that site doesn’t use the most optimal method to measure snowfall, so the numbers are low, but what they do have, as far as we’re aware from conversations that Powderfreak has had with people in the know, is consistency in data collection over the past 60 years. Here are the averages for seasonal snowfall at the Mt. Mansfield Co-op site over different periods:

Period of record (’54-’55 – ’12-’13): 208.3”

Past 30 seasons (’83-’84 – ’12-’13): 201.0”

Past 15 seasons (’98-’99 – ’12-’13): 207.7”

Past 10 seasons (’03-’04 – ’12-’13): 196.9”

Past 7 seasons (’03-’04 – ’12-’13): 195.8”

Past 5 seasons (’03-’04 – ’12-’13): 177.5”

If anything, the most plausible assessment would be that snowfall has been worse than the long term average as of late, but based on the S.D. values for the above data being in the 30-60” range, it’s probably only the last value that has any chance of being statistically different from the long term mean.

So how does this apply to my data? All I know is that my data seem to correlate quite well with what goes on in the local mountains here, typically running in the range of 50% of the snowfall that the resorts report. Obviously without the actual data, we can’t know for sure, but I just don’t see a huge spike in the Mt. Mansfield Co-op site data to make me suspect that my data set from the past 7 years are somehow way above the long-term mean. The fact that the snowfall at Bolton and Stowe has been notably low this season, in line with mine, just seems to corroborate this assertion.

So anyway, based on the data in hand, I don’t think my assignment of a D+ is all that harsh. I think it would be very hard, based on this season’s data thus far that I detailed in the previous post, to somehow make a call that was above average. That sets the ceiling at a straight C right there. And, since I’m going to go with marginally below average, but not horribly so thanks to some recent redemptions, knocking it down 2/3 of a grade below average doesn’t seem unreasonable.

Of course it’s all in good fun, but that’s some of the justification I used for the grade.

thanks totally understand your grade now.Enjoy the next month, should be ahem epic,

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 3.5” Snow/0.16” L.E.

 

I went out and took a midnight analysis off the snowboard, and it’s really coming down out there.  With the huge flakes, the rate of snowfall is in the 1-2”/hr range, and you can see some of the intensity with those 30 db returns hitting the spine here:

 

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 3.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.16 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 21.9

Snow Density: 4.6% H2O

Temperature: 27.1 F

Sky: Heavy Snow

Snow at the stake: 20.0 inches

[CardinalWinds]

Wow, it continues to snow here unabated at a moderate/heavy clip.  Looks like 3-4 inches...so far.  I wasn't expecting this much snow tonight, that's for sure!

[powderfreak]

Wow nice JSpin and Cardinal...eyeballing here at home looks like 2" or so and still snowing lightly.

[MBRI]

North Conway has 1"

[powderfreak]

4.5" at 1,500ft, grooming reporting 8" up top. Makes sense as 4pm yesterday there was 3" up top and just a half inch at the base. Summit had a 3" head start yesterday.

[powderfreak]

This is the Green Mountain Spine I've come to know.  Still coming down even though radar says it shouldn't be.

 

[Allenson]

Squalls came through here last night deposting 2.5" of fresh fluff.

 

Let the dog out last night around 11:30 after falling asleep on the couch and was quite surprised to see the fresh snow I did.  Coupled with a big bright moon shining through the clouds, it made for an amazing night outside.  So bright, so white.

 

Light snow still falling now, 12F.

 

Snowpack settled from 35" down to 31" yesterday during the day but the fluff last night temporarily brought it back up to 33" or so.  Not much heft to this fresh stuff, so it'll be back down to 31" or so as soon as the sun comes out for a few hours...

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.21” L.E.

 

Another 2.5” of snow fell between midnight and this morning’s observations time; it’s very dry snow down around 2% H2O, and as of this morning it had already settled at least an inch from when I made my final measurement last night.  It looks like 6-8” fell in the local mountains, although I suspect they’ve already experienced a good deal of settling in this snow if they’re measuring this morning.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: 13.1 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

[Hitman]

This is how we do it! Another 3" otg. Powder day!

[Nittany88]

wait I confused you with eyeore, that's right you are the one who lives in VT but despises winter. Like living in Hawaii and despising big surf, I kid

 

Haha believe me, I'm looking for a way out.

[mreaves]

2.5" here overnight and currently 12F. Spring does not look emminant.

[Allenson]

Regarding this business of grading winter and my 'robust' comment, I was taking all parameters into account--not just snowfall.  To me, winter is more than just seasonal snowfall, though of course this is a big part of the picture.

 

Hard not to call it robust here when we're above normal for snowfall for the date and have topped the 100" by mid-March (synoptically, mind you) we've had 30+ below zero mornings and many more 24 hour minima below zero when cheapies are taken into account, we've had consistent snow on the ground since late November, currently have a very deep and dense snowpack that has built up over the course of the entire winter (take away one of the rainer/cutters in January and I would likely have 40"+ otg right now) and not to forget the extent of and thickness of lake ice:  local lake ice thicknesses are 18"+ (and likely considerably more) and of course Lake Champlain froze over completely which happens what?  Once every 8-10 years?

 

All-in-all, it's been an 'old fashioned' winter here in the CT River drainage and I for one am looking forward to spring at this point.  Just not too quickly mind you--lot of water locked up in our pack right now.  Haven't done a core (maybe today) but I would guess that there's some 8-10" of water therein.

 

Oh, and the frost heaves are utterly epic this year.  Nearly bounced all my pruning gear out of the back of my truck yesterday when I hit one pretty hard that I forgot was there.  I mid-bounce, I glanced in my rearview and saw my chainsaw in mid air, only to land right where it previously lay in the bed of the truck. 

 

No work today--we'll go for a ski tour but probably a mellow one.  My wife is 5 months pregnant and she has been taking it very easy on skis this winter. 

[dendrite]

Even picked up a 0.8"/0.02" refresher here in NW downslope land.

[klw]

.7 overnight.

[dendrite]

I guess we're not done with the well below zero temps. MAV for Tue AM...

HIE -28F

BML -24F

LEB -21F

MVL -21F

MPV -17F

IZG -14F

BTV -10F

CON -8F

LCI -5F

Those are probably a little too cold though.

[powderfreak]

Best day of the year so far for me... no one here at all.  5-6" at the base and 8-10" at the summit.  Still snowing.  38" at 3,000ft in the past 7 days.

 

I have no idea what happened last night but it freakin' dumped.

 

Drifts on the sides of the trails...bigger drifts from this "non-event" than the big "blizzard" lol.

 

 

Its all knee deep in the woods on top of the more dense layer from yestereday's warm weather.

 

 

Its like being in candy land out there today.

 

[Nittany88]

Best day of the year so far for me... no one here at all.  5-6" at the base and 8-10" at the summit.  Still snowing.  38" at 3,000ft in the past 7 days.

 

I have no idea what happened last night but it freakin' dumped.

 

Drifts on the sides of the trails...bigger drifts from this "non-event" than the big "blizzard" lol.

 

drifts.JPG

 

Its all knee deep in the woods on top of the more dense layer from yestereday's warm weather.

 

tracks.JPG

 

Its like being in candy land out there today.

 

trees.JPG

 

Meanwhile Smuggs only coming in with 3-4", Stowe and the east side wins this one.

[#NoPoles]

PF, what do you do in the summer when everything is green and humid? do you hibernate?

[powderfreak]

Meanwhile Smuggs only coming in with 3-4", Stowe and the east side wins this one.

Yeah your AFD yesterday afternoon nailed it

Bolton with 5-6" though, too. I'm honestly surprised at Smuggs. It's not often we double them in upslope type events.

[Nittany88]

Yeah your AFD yesterday afternoon nailed it

Bolton with 5-6" though, too. I'm honestly surprised at Smuggs. It's not often we double them in upslope type events.

 

Haha. That squall that came through overperformed a bit too.

[powderfreak]

J.Spin's micro-climate taking home the prize last night...