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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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1.8" new on 0.17" LE, finished with a bit of fr dz.  Morning AFD from GYX extends the mix to my area but not so much as to hurt the accum much - map has S.Franklin just to the good side of the 10-14"/14-18" line.  They also caution that upcoming runs have a good chance of showing further warming. 

Keep trimming those totals. lol. I don't know why, but even in all snow events, it's so hard to get over 10" events in my area. 12+ would have been a nice season ender, but I'll bet we get <8".

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Event totals: 2.5” Snow/0.16” L.E.

 

Last night’s storm finished up with an additional 0.2” of snow post midnight, for a total of 5.1” from these past two events.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 32.9 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 15.0 inches

 

The north to south listing of snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for this second event are below; totals are a bit less than yesterday morning, but again favored the more northern areas:

 

Jay Peak: 3”

Burke: 2”

Smuggler’s Notch: 1”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 2”

Mad River Glen: 2”

Sugarbush: 2”

Middlebury: 1”

Pico: 0”

Killington: 0”

Okemo: T”

Bromley: 1”

Magic Mountain: T”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

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The BTV NWS advisories map was updated this morning, showing expansion of the Winter Storm Warnings to the east and west of Vermont, with Winter Weather Advisories to the south:

 

11MAR14A.jpg

 

 

Then there's this map on their storm total page, created at 7am...

 

11MAR14B.jpg

 

 

 

That’s the one I typically monitor, and I noticed that it hadn’t changed from yesterday, so apparently they held pat with what they had.  That one has us in the 18-24” range along the spine, and jives generally with the high end of our point forecast, which sums to 13-23”.  Stepping to the hourly weather graph for our location provides an estimation of 18.5” snow/1.06 L.E.

 

11MAR14C.jpg

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2" last night.

 

Waiting for the big one.

 

People are so tired of winter now and here comes the back-breaker.

 

ski buddy and I were chuckling a bit this AM noticing the same thing.  It has been a long one for sure, down to my last 2 weeks of wood and lots of folks scrambling for wood pellets, long and cold, the kind of winter that makes  alot of folks move away from NNE:)

 

speaking of skiing, funny zipper crust over 3" new, not mashed tater snow but definitely spring time caking, looking forward to tomorrow PM, the woods have a beautiful canvas now, real free skiing

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Gun to weenie, I'm going 12-16" for BTV. This is just classic

 

Hahah My revised call yesterday was 10-15" and I feel good there (not too much different from that). I just can't wait for it to begin already! :)

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For the record, here are some QPF numbers from the 12z Euro around NNE:

 

Lyndonville: 1.75"

BTV: 1.52"

MPV:1.64"

MVL: 1.52"

RUT: 1.49" with mixing

LEB:1.61" with mixing

LCI:1.42" with mixing

LEW: 1.62" with mixing

BML: 1.85"

IZG:1.62"

 

This is the one we have been waiting for.

I'm starting to worry about taint. No more northward shifts please.
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For the record, here are some QPF numbers from the 12z Euro around NNE:

 

Lyndonville: 1.75"

BTV: 1.52"

MPV:1.64"

MVL: 1.52"

RUT: 1.49" with mixing

LEB:1.61" with mixing

LCI:1.42" with mixing

LEW: 1.62" with mixing

BML: 1.85"

IZG:1.62"

 

This is the one we have been waiting for.

1.5" would be 15" at 10:1 but I imagine the ratios with the deform band and upper level support will be better than that.

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Would you rather 1-3 hours of sleet or a fringe job? Even 3/7/11 tainted in the NEK for a time.

True. Even though I am on the verge of shifting into golf mode, if this were to be a huge bust and we end up with 4" or 5" of glop, I would be really bummed. I generally don't let myself get really pumped up or let down with events but losing this one would be a blow.
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Would you rather 1-3 hours of sleet or a fringe job? Even 3/7/11 tainted in the NEK for a time.

 

It was all taint IMBY - 2" IP and 1/2" ZR, while 40 miles NW was 18-20" snow.

 

Latest from GYX (copy/pasted crudely - my apologies):  Love the little 18-24 blotches, especially since my place is in one of them.  ;)

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

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