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NNE Winter Part 3

mreaves

By mreaves,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Don't cry for me Argentina. We've done well this winter. It's NNE's time to shine.

 

This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol.  Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm.

 

Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

Is that a 24" bullseye over Addison County???  wow.  that's some forecast.

 

Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone)

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ApacheTrout

ApacheTrout

Posted
Posted

Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone)

jeebus.  I agree with you that it is likely overdone, but it sure sets one's heart a flutter.

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SP

SP

Posted
Posted

This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol.  Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm.

 

Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with.

 

Its because I am heading north this week ;)  I brought it to Stowe last year with a great week of upslope conditions. This year I am bring the snow guns to Gunstock :snowing::snowman:

I have friends heading your way for the Eastern Champ races this weekend. Hope to return next season for a vaca week or some early TOS in December. I miss my Mulligatawny and scotch tour at pickwick.

 

As always, enjoy your pics through the season!

 

Have fun in the pow pow it should be stellar, cold as heck, but stellar.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Awesome discussion by Taber... great stuff. 

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WL IMPACT THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDS INTO THURS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...

WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR THE DACKS...CPV...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SYSTEM OF INTEREST NOW ACRS THE NW CONUS WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY STILL LOCATED ACRS NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA.
THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY 12Z WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FULL LATITUDE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOMING CLOSED OFF ACRS EASTERN NY INTO
SNE. THE COMBINATION OF A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE AND POTENT S/W
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF...WL RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF SYSTEM. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW RRQ OF 120 JET LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN
CANADA WHILE LFQ OF SUB-TROPICAL JET IS STREAKING ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS DUAL STRUCTURE
WL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH PA TO CAPE COD. THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS OCCURRING WL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THE
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL/QPF ACRS OUR CWA...IF IT OCCURS TO OUR
EAST...MUCH LESS IMPACTS. THE UKMET/GEM STILL HINT AT THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER/DEEPER.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW THIS PHASING OCCURRING FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER IMPACTS
ACRS OUR CWA. THIS PLACES OUR CWA IN THE FAVORABLE FRONT SIDE WAA
LIFT/MOISTURE ON WEDS AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE PRECIP ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK IN SFC LOW
...WHICH DOES PLACE PTYPE AN ISSUE ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES VERY CLOSE TO A
MIX...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS WITH THE 540 LINE INTO CENTRAL VT.
GFS SOUNDING AT VSF SHOWS 825MB TEMP AROUND 3C...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MIX WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDS EVENING. WL MENTION SOME
MIX ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZNS AND IN WSW TEXT PRODUCT.

USING A BLEND BTWN THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF WAA
FGEN FORCING DEVELOPING BTWN 12Z-15Z WEDS...WITH STRONGEST 850 TO
700MB FORCING/UVVS ON 1ST PART OF THE SYSTEM OCCURRING ON WEDS
AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWS SURGING ABOVE 0.50"
OR 150% OF NORMAL AND STRONG DYNAMICS...THINKING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON WEDS
EVENING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF SHADOWING/IMPACTS OF TRRN
ASSOCIATED WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS ON WEDS.
THINKING TRRN IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL AS DIRECTION IS MORE
NORTHERLY...THEN EAST...BUT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR SOME
SHADOWING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INITIAL WAA LIFT/MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMAL PROFILES WL RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS BTWN 10 AND
14 TO 1...WITH TOTAL QPF BTWN 0.20 AND 0.50 ACRS OUR
CWA...RESULTING IN A GENERAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 10" POSSIBLE ON THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN
MTNS FROM KILLINGTON TO STOWE AND EASTERN DACKS.

THE 2ND PART IMPACTS OUR REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO MOST OF
THURSDAY NOW...WITH VERY FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE FLW.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW GOOD RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...STRONG
850 TO 700MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY WARM AIR CONVEYOR ALOFT
AND DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED...WL RESULT IN A
SLOWER SHIFT EASTWARD AND PROLONGED UPSLOPE FLW. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE
QPF/UPSLOPE FLW QPF WL RANGE FROM 0.25" SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TO
0.50 TO 0.75"...WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS/CPV/NEK. AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP...STRONG LLVL CAA WL OCCUR AND OUR SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN WL JUMP BTWN 20 AND 30 TO 1. THE QPF
COMBINED WITH HIGH FLUFF FACTOR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
INCHES SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY...6 TO 12 INCHES
DACKS/NEK/CPV...AND 10 TO 16 INCHES WESTERN SLOPES. SO ADDING BOTH
PARTS TOGETHER RESULTS IN A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 INCH EVENT WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS BY
LATE THURSDAY. WATCH CONTS FOR UNCERTAINTY ACRS THE SLV...THINKING
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 POSSIBLE.

AS 975MB LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDS NIGHT/THURSDAY
...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN ACRS OUR CWA...WITH VERY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOWING
925MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...LATE WEDS INTO THURS...WITH WELL
ALIGNED FLW ACRS THE SLV/CPV...DUE TO TRRN. THIS WL PRODUCE SFC
WIND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE OPEN/EXPOSED AREAS. THESE NORTH WINDS WL ALSO QUICKLY ADVECT
BITTERLY COLD TEMPS INTO OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -20 AND -24C. WL TREND TWD THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE ON THURS WITH HIGHS NEAR ZERO MTNS TO SINGLES/TEENS
WARMER VALLEYS.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone)

 

Missed the added contours - there's two of them in the area east of Moosehead Lake.  30" for Baxter? 

Updated map from GYX has a wide band of 14-18" and their WS watch includes the possibility of 12-18" for the foothills.  That would be very nice, though we'll see how things change between now and showtime.

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wxjim207

wxjim207

Posted
Posted

Well I think its awesome winter is sticking around. You know its been years since a nice winter like this. I am happy we picked up 1" today, 2-4" tonight and like 12-15" Wednesday-Thursday for Lyndonville Vermont. I love this! 

 

Hearing Jim Cantore maybe deploying somewhere up here for the heart of this big storm. Ski country (aka us Inland NNE) will love this! 

 

Forecasting tomorrow for a 48hr forecast for VTrans tomorrow. 

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wxjim207

wxjim207

Posted
Posted

Missed the added contours - there's two of them in the area east of Moosehead Lake.  30" for Baxter? 

Updated map from GYX has a wide band of 14-18" and their WS watch includes the possibility of 12-18" for the foothills.  That would be very nice, though we'll see how things change between now and showtime.

 

 

This is CAR forecast map below. I don't see what you are talking about. Greenville is the southern end of Moosehead and looking East there isn't anything there that was missed.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Congrads eyewall and the freak!  You guys will catch up big time to the guys down south.  It was just a matter of time.  Kind of fun for me being on the line and seeing what will happen here.  Of course 48 hours out so I could change to a driving rain for a few hours but you guys are good with this trend.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

This is CAR forecast map below. I don't see what you are talking about. Greenville is the southern end of Moosehead and looking East there isn't anything there that was missed.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

Check out the Euro map posted by eyewall a few hours ago.  Obviously CAR isn't buying that map verbatim; it's a superweenie forecast.

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grambo

grambo

Posted
Posted

This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol.  Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm.

 

Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with.

Heh?! What's that sonny? Snow's a-comin'?

I'll let you know how much we got when it's all over.

But for now I'll just bring more wood in.

*kick*

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

this is crushing people up this way, lots of long faces and talk about hoping it just blows south gain :)

 

 

we get 12-18" on top of the glacier we have now, combined with the frost, epic mud season coming.

 

eyewall, highly recommend a nice long drive come April on any backroad you can find :)

 

I would place the chances at this going away at 0 unless the world ends beforehand............lol

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