powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 12z GFS model run was the run we were looking for all season long up here, lol. Just saving this for posterity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Don't cry for me Argentina. We've done well this winter. It's NNE's time to shine. This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol. Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm. Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 This is bumping up against my personal March 15th cutoff date for wanting big snow. Let this one dump and then we can have a nice slow melt into April. That way I can still get in some good riding and not be too late with the start of golf season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12Z Euro Is that a 24" bullseye over Addison County??? wow. that's some forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Is that a 24" bullseye over Addison County??? wow. that's some forecast. Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone) jeebus. I agree with you that it is likely overdone, but it sure sets one's heart a flutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol. Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm. Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with. Its because I am heading north this week I brought it to Stowe last year with a great week of upslope conditions. This year I am bring the snow guns to Gunstock I have friends heading your way for the Eastern Champ races this weekend. Hope to return next season for a vaca week or some early TOS in December. I miss my Mulligatawny and scotch tour at pickwick. As always, enjoy your pics through the season! Have fun in the pow pow it should be stellar, cold as heck, but stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Warning now up out of BTV! Going 10-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 94.7" on the season so far. Given these latest model runs, I'd say it's a safe bet now that I'll crest the century plateau.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like I can scrap the 4-8" However there is still a shadowing concern if winds are too easterly on the front end. Either way we will get a good show on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Awesome discussion by Taber... great stuff. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY......SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WL IMPACT THE ENTIRE NORTHCOUNTRY WEDS INTO THURS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOWPOSSIBLE...WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILEWATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR THE DACKS...CPV...CENTRAL ANDNORTHERN VT.WATER VAPOR SHOWS SYSTEM OF INTEREST NOW ACRS THE NW CONUS WITHNORTHERN STREAM ENERGY STILL LOCATED ACRS NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA.THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUSBY 12Z WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY.FULL LATITUDE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE EASTERN CONUSWITH 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOMING CLOSED OFF ACRS EASTERN NY INTOSNE. THE COMBINATION OF A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE AND POTENT S/WENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF...WL RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATIONOF SYSTEM. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW RRQ OF 120 JET LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERNCANADA WHILE LFQ OF SUB-TROPICAL JET IS STREAKING ACRS THESOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS DUAL STRUCTUREWL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR AS SFCLOW PRES TRACKS FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH PA TO CAPE COD. THE EXACTTIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS OCCURRING WL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THEAMOUNT OF SNOWFALL/QPF ACRS OUR CWA...IF IT OCCURS TO OUREAST...MUCH LESS IMPACTS. THE UKMET/GEM STILL HINT AT THISPOTENTIAL...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER/DEEPER.THE LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW THIS PHASING OCCURRING FASTERAND DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER IMPACTSACRS OUR CWA. THIS PLACES OUR CWA IN THE FAVORABLE FRONT SIDE WAALIFT/MOISTURE ON WEDS AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE PRECIP ONTHURSDAY. ALSO...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK IN SFC LOW...WHICH DOES PLACE PTYPE AN ISSUE ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA.BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES VERY CLOSE TO AMIX...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS WITH THE 540 LINE INTO CENTRAL VT.GFS SOUNDING AT VSF SHOWS 825MB TEMP AROUND 3C...WHICH WOULDSUPPORT A MIX WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDS EVENING. WL MENTION SOMEMIX ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZNS AND IN WSW TEXT PRODUCT.USING A BLEND BTWN THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF WAAFGEN FORCING DEVELOPING BTWN 12Z-15Z WEDS...WITH STRONGEST 850 TO700MB FORCING/UVVS ON 1ST PART OF THE SYSTEM OCCURRING ON WEDSAFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWS SURGING ABOVE 0.50"OR 150% OF NORMAL AND STRONG DYNAMICS...THINKING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON WEDSEVENING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF SHADOWING/IMPACTS OF TRRNASSOCIATED WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS ON WEDS.THINKING TRRN IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL AS DIRECTION IS MORENORTHERLY...THEN EAST...BUT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR SOMESHADOWING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INITIAL WAA LIFT/MOISTURE ANDASSOCIATED THERMAL PROFILES WL RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS BTWN 10 AND14 TO 1...WITH TOTAL QPF BTWN 0.20 AND 0.50 ACRS OURCWA...RESULTING IN A GENERAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. SOME HIGHERAMOUNTS NEAR 10" POSSIBLE ON THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREENMTNS FROM KILLINGTON TO STOWE AND EASTERN DACKS.THE 2ND PART IMPACTS OUR REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO MOST OFTHURSDAY NOW...WITH VERY FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE FLW.BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW GOOD RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...STRONG850 TO 700MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY WARM AIR CONVEYOR ALOFTAND DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH THESYSTEM DEEPENING AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED...WL RESULT IN ASLOWER SHIFT EASTWARD AND PROLONGED UPSLOPE FLW. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDEQPF/UPSLOPE FLW QPF WL RANGE FROM 0.25" SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TO0.50 TO 0.75"...WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS/CPV/NEK. AS GUSTY NORTH WINDSDEVELOP...STRONG LLVL CAA WL OCCUR AND OUR SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATEDWITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN WL JUMP BTWN 20 AND 30 TO 1. THE QPFCOMBINED WITH HIGH FLUFF FACTOR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8INCHES SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY...6 TO 12 INCHESDACKS/NEK/CPV...AND 10 TO 16 INCHES WESTERN SLOPES. SO ADDING BOTHPARTS TOGETHER RESULTS IN A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 INCH EVENT WITHLOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS BYLATE THURSDAY. WATCH CONTS FOR UNCERTAINTY ACRS THE SLV...THINKINGA GENERAL 6 TO 12 POSSIBLE.AS 975MB LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDS NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN ACRS OUR CWA...WITH VERYGUSTY NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOWING925MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...LATE WEDS INTO THURS...WITH WELLALIGNED FLW ACRS THE SLV/CPV...DUE TO TRRN. THIS WL PRODUCE SFCWIND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTHE OPEN/EXPOSED AREAS. THESE NORTH WINDS WL ALSO QUICKLY ADVECTBITTERLY COLD TEMPS INTO OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS WITHPROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -20 AND -24C. WL TREND TWD THE COLDESTGUIDANCE ON THURS WITH HIGHS NEAR ZERO MTNS TO SINGLES/TEENSWARMER VALLEYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone) Missed the added contours - there's two of them in the area east of Moosehead Lake. 30" for Baxter? Updated map from GYX has a wide band of 14-18" and their WS watch includes the possibility of 12-18" for the foothills. That would be very nice, though we'll see how things change between now and showtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well I think its awesome winter is sticking around. You know its been years since a nice winter like this. I am happy we picked up 1" today, 2-4" tonight and like 12-15" Wednesday-Thursday for Lyndonville Vermont. I love this! Hearing Jim Cantore maybe deploying somewhere up here for the heart of this big storm. Ski country (aka us Inland NNE) will love this! Forecasting tomorrow for a 48hr forecast for VTrans tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Missed the added contours - there's two of them in the area east of Moosehead Lake. 30" for Baxter? Updated map from GYX has a wide band of 14-18" and their WS watch includes the possibility of 12-18" for the foothills. That would be very nice, though we'll see how things change between now and showtime. This is CAR forecast map below. I don't see what you are talking about. Greenville is the southern end of Moosehead and looking East there isn't anything there that was missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I will revise my call to 10-15" for BTV. I am not quite ready to go 14-18" because of my shadowing concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Congrads eyewall and the freak! You guys will catch up big time to the guys down south. It was just a matter of time. Kind of fun for me being on the line and seeing what will happen here. Of course 48 hours out so I could change to a driving rain for a few hours but you guys are good with this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I just want to make double digits. If I end up with 10" I will be quite pleased . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 This is CAR forecast map below. I don't see what you are talking about. Greenville is the southern end of Moosehead and looking East there isn't anything there that was missed. Check out the Euro map posted by eyewall a few hours ago. Obviously CAR isn't buying that map verbatim; it's a superweenie forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I looked at the BTV AFD and it mentioned the UKMET possibly being east...I hadn't looked at that model but it made a sizeable jump between the 00z and 12z run: Here was last night's 00z run: Here's today's 12z run, huge hit up across the north country... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Good thing to all Northeast Kingdom Vermont folks. We are not going to shadow from the whites at all. South winds early (upslope), main storm underway gives us NE. SWEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Good thing to all Northeast Kingdom Vermont folks. We are not going to shadow from the whites at all. South winds early (upslope), main storm underway gives us NE. SWEET! What are your thoughts for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What are your thoughts for this area? Passumpsic Valley 11-13" Just up and out of the valley 12-15" First 2-5" will be wet snow becoming a fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 This would be a fun blitz on the GFS... 3-hour's and 0.5" QPF in a wind-blown snow situation. Wednesday evening could get pretty rough out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 18Z gfs looks to bring 850 line up to about Concord NH. 1.5 to over 1.75" qpf for all of C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Any chance of a blizzard warning up here? When was the last time that happened? I know they made the criteria easier so I would think at elevations above 1000 feet with a NE view it could happen with a sub 980 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 this is crushing people up this way, lots of long faces and talk about hoping it just blows south gain we get 12-18" on top of the glacier we have now, combined with the frost, epic mud season coming. eyewall, highly recommend a nice long drive come April on any backroad you can find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol. Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm. Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with. Heh?! What's that sonny? Snow's a-comin'? I'll let you know how much we got when it's all over. But for now I'll just bring more wood in. *kick* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm thinking driving up Wednesday night would be unwise. As much as it kills me, might have to wait for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 this is crushing people up this way, lots of long faces and talk about hoping it just blows south gain we get 12-18" on top of the glacier we have now, combined with the frost, epic mud season coming. eyewall, highly recommend a nice long drive come April on any backroad you can find I would place the chances at this going away at 0 unless the world ends beforehand............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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