CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It is a C- winter by the standards up here I think. It wasn't in the cards this year to be memorable or historic like farther south. The pattern never relented. The Euro was less than promising for anything different for the next 10 days. Well on the flip side, you guys ended up having an ok winter compared to EVERYONE ELSE in New England back in 2012. It still was not good, but I am speaking from a relative sense. I was watching roses bloom in December while PF was knee deep in fake upslope snow. It's just the ebb and flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 didn't you mention a NNE threat for 3/8-3/9 or is that gone now? thx Yes it's not a strong signal right now. There is also another thing to watch maybe the 10-11 or so. Basically these aren't high confidence locks...just something that looked interesting on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well on the flip side, you guys ended up having an ok winter compared to EVERYONE ELSE in New England back in 2012. It still was not good, but I am speaking from a relative sense. I was watching roses bloom in December while PF was knee deep in fake upslope snow. It's just the ebb and flow. Yeah, its how it goes. That was the winter everyone on here was ready to physically hang me from the chairlifts every time I mentioned the phrase "upslope snow" haha. It happens... I mean take 2010-2011, that was big everywhere (even up here) but I think SE MA got sort of porked on that one relatively speaking. 2009-2010 was a rough winter for a lot of folks while the Mid Atlantic got railed time and time again, however BTV ended up with 90-something inches including their all-time largest snowstorm. Winters come and go, and each one is different for every location. Next winter it could be a huge winter for NY State while the rest of us have a whole bunch of easterly flow mixed rain/snow events or something...you just never know. And often times its only the difference of a couple hundred miles between a sweet winter and a "meh" winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It is a C- winter by the standards up here I think. It wasn't in the cards this year to be memorable or historic like farther south. The pattern never relented. The Euro was less than promising for anything different for the next 10 days. I guess I was just hoping for something real big in my first one living up here. Yeah I can see where you are coming from too...moving from the Carolina's to northern Vermont...just looking forward to tracking numerous warning events and the excitement that comes with them, only to end up with 1 or 2 of those through early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, its how it goes. That was the winter everyone on here was ready to physically hang me from the chairlifts every time I mentioned the phrase "upslope snow" haha. It happens... I mean take 2010-2011, that was big everywhere (even up here) but I think SE MA got sort of porked on that one relatively speaking. 2009-2010 was a rough winter for a lot of folks while the Mid Atlantic got railed time and time again, however BTV ended up with 90-something inches including their all-time largest snowstorm. Winters come and go, and each one is different for every location. Next winter it could be a huge winter for NY State while the rest of us have a whole bunch of easterly flow mixed rain/snow events or something...you just never know. And often times its only the difference of a couple hundred miles between a sweet winter and a "meh" winter. 2010-2011 has a bad screw zone for CC while 15 miles NW got nailed. That wasn't cool. But as we said...that's how it goes sometimes. You still have March....maybe I am crazy, but I think you are going to get a good snowstorm by St Pattys Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Whoa, wait a minute, we’ve had this conversation before, and last time it was the exact opposite. Supposedly, the snowier a locale around here, the harder it is to get huge deviations from average snowfall; deviations in temperatures don’t result in rain as much, the mountains create some of their own snow through upslope, etc. I think a winter with 200% of mean snowfall in the mountains around here is virtually unheard of, and I’m not even sure of the last time we had 150% of normal – that’s getting close to 500” for places like Bolton Valley and Stowe, and I know I haven’t seen that. Even 2000-2001, definitely the snowiest winter in the past 20 years (432” at Stowe) is only 135% of average. Even when we broke 200” here at the house in 2007-2008 for the snowiest winter in my records, it only represented 127% of average. If the data are being skewed by some high outliers, we should at least get to experience them, just like the below normal years (which will be three in a row if this one comes in below average).I'll admit that I assumed. Obviously a place like DC is going to have more skewing so I'm not sure what my point was singling out NNE. I have a migraine so I'll blame it on that. I avg a bit over 70" and without looking at the data I'd say we pull off 100"+ more frequently than we do <40". Then there's a year like 07-08 that doubles my avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 After viewing PFs pics in the ski thread I really feel bad for his predicament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Left ny and it was 23f. -5f here now. Beautiful clear night. I've made my peace with this latest system. Time to move on. Skiing should be good tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It is a C- winter by the standards up here I think. It wasn't in the cards this year to be memorable or historic like farther south. The pattern never relented. The Euro was less than promising for anything different for the next 10 days. I guess I was just hoping for something real big in my first one living up here. A "C-" grade for February 28th is a bit early to make that call IMHO. I don't really understand throwing out such a "low grade" if you've enjoyed the winter! I've honestly never experienced a "C-" winter in Northern VT- it's always well above a passing grade. When snowfall runs below average, with this perspective- it'll be a downer. When expectations are skewed toward at least average, but really expecting above average- generally, you're gonna have a bad time. It's not that bad- not bad at all- just gotta get out and enjoy it while it lasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 After viewing PFs pics in the ski thread I really feel bad for his predicament. Haha...but compare the previous amount of times I would be posting pictures in other winters that look like that . There is a direct correlation to our snowfall and the amount of pow photos I post on here, haha. Someone the other day noticed it and made a passing comment about how I haven't posted as many pics of it dumping or people skiing ridiculous powder. Compare the past two years ski thread and this years Ginxy, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'd offer 2007-2008 as an outlier. Pushed 150" that year here and had almost 50" otg for a few days. Speaking of pack, have 21" here now but this cold dry air seems to be contracting it some. Another cold one. -10F early this morning but already warming a bit ahead of the clipper/front: up to -7F now. Tree pruning today, skiing MRG with a buddy of mine tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 A "C-" grade for February 28th is a bit early to make that call IMHO. I don't really understand throwing out such a "low grade" if you've enjoyed the winter! I've honestly never experienced a "C-" winter in Northern VT- it's always well above a passing grade. When snowfall runs below average, with this perspective- it'll be a downer. When expectations are skewed toward at least average, but really expecting above average- generally, you're gonna have a bad time. It's not that bad- not bad at all- just gotta get out and enjoy it while it lasts! Yeah there are sort of two things going on when grading... I mean is it just your enjoyment level or is it statistically relative to normal? I'm always going to enjoy the winters up here...I absolutely love living up here. I get the whole every season is awesome mentality, but I like numbers and comparing them. So how do you compare one winter to the next if they are all good? Like take 2000-2001 or 2007-2008 or even 2010-2011...how would you compare those to this winter? The comments from others that are like "I don't feel bad for you guys because you still have more snow than I saw this winter"...well no one is looking for sympathy I dont think, and of course even a bad winter in the mountains of NNE will be better than places much further south. Like an awful winter in Hartford is still probably snowier than Richmond, VA. I just like to look at everything relative to climo, as that's really the only way to compare one season to the next. We always had this discussion in the summertime when a former poster living in the Berkshires would always say a given warm spell was a fail because he only hit 88 degrees, while everyone else was in the 90s. Its not a fail because it was still like 10-15 degrees above normal, his average temps are just lower than most others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah I can see where you are coming from too...moving from the Carolina's to northern Vermont...just looking forward to tracking numerous warning events and the excitement that comes with them, only to end up with 1 or 2 of those through early March. Exactly, and the grade is from a few different factors. Of course I don't know what will happen this month but the pattern has been persistent. It is the grade to date and may change. Some factors include under performers, jackpots missing just south, rainers followed by cold and dry. On the upside there was the November squall and 2 warning events and a memorable icing event. The first half of February was solid. I am a skier as well and of those conditions have been tricky at times without as many upslope events and missing refreshers after rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I dont want to grade the winter until it's over. But for me, put the numbers aside. Early winter was great, but the heart of winter was not good up until valentines day. I am at 3 powder days on the ec which is below what I look for. I don't mind the brutal cold so much physically except what it has done to my heating bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'll admit that I assumed. Obviously a place like DC is going to have more skewing so I'm not sure what my point was singling out NNE. I have a migraine so I'll blame it on that. I avg a bit over 70" and without looking at the data I'd say we pull off 100"+ more frequently than we do <40". Then there's a year like 07-08 that doubles my avg. No problem, just trying to reconcile previous conversations I’ve seen in the forum with PF and some of the other meteorologists about banner years farther to the south, and why it’s so hard to get them up here. It’s tough, because unfortunately, we really can’t use BTV’s seasonal snowfall behavior as a comparator for the mountains here, even though it’s 20 miles away. I’ve definitely seen enough seasons now to know it’s a very different climate. If one were to run that data, I’m sure we’d find that the S.D. values for snowfall here in the mountains are small relative to many areas in the region. Although it makes it hard to get massive, banner years, it’s actually what one would want in an area focused on skiing and other winter recreation – you’re going to get a level of reliability. For example, although we’re 30” down and three weeks behind right now relative to the snowfall mean here, snowfall is only 22.9% below average. We’re still flirting with that -1 S.D. line at -0.94 S.D., but we haven’t dropped below it for a few weeks now thanks to the average February. The high elevations around here are indeed father below their mean snowfall values than my location though; I don’t have the numbers to see exactly where they stand, but I bet it’s more than 1 S.D. below. However, there is still enough snow to get off piste as PF’s latest pictures show, so that speaks to some level of dependability even in a low snowfall season. Snowpack is another big factor in the off piste skiing, and I’m sure the mountains excel in having lower volatility in that department relative to lower elevation sites in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I avg a bit over 70" and without looking at the data I'd say we pull off 100"+ more frequently than we do <40". Then there's a year like 07-08 that doubles my avg. My avg here is 87", and while I've had two monster seasons (00-01 and 07-08) that are 50" above that, #3 season is just 14.4" above avg. Meanwhile I've had 5 winters that were at least 20" below avg. And while I'm very close to avg snowfall to date (2.0" over, to be exact), I'm also the lowest of the Maineiacs posting on the snow table, while climo would have my location as the highest. Same thing happened in 2010-11, and last winter it was close to another "upside down" snowfall pattern. Add that to 09-10 and 11-12 being awful for most everybody, and these last 5 winters have been pretty meh for snow. This winter gets high grades for cold and for extremes in temp, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 -10 at the airport and -3 on campus. Welcome to March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Snowmobiling in caribou. Pretty cold. Wind isn't helping. Had 396mi for the ride yesterday. By far the most miles in one day for me. A few wrong turns. Lol. Back out today but waiting for out to warm up a bit. Guess we're not getting much of anything on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Snowmobiling in caribou. Pretty cold. Wind isn't helping. Had 396mi for the ride yesterday. By far the most miles in one day for me. A few wrong turns. Lol. Back out today but waiting for out to warm up a bit. Guess we're not getting much of anything on Monday. Nada, Trails must be good, Trails are to hard down here, No lube or cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If winter ended to day, I would give it a C on snowfall And an A on cold temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If winter ended to day, I would give it a C on snowfall And an A on cold temps Very fair assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Very fair assessment. Yeah Scott, I think i would remember this one for its ongoing cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probably my rating would be similar, though in NNE March is still winter so I'll wait for the full assessment. I can say, however, that met winter was my second coldest of 16 here at 13.54, and just 0.03F above 2002-03. "NNE winter" will be a challenge, however, as March 2003 is the coldest I've recorded here. Good start, though, with a low on the cool side of -15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Probably my rating would be similar, though in NNE March is still winter so I'll wait for the full assessment. I can say, however, that met winter was my second coldest of 16 here at 13.54, and just 0.03F above 2002-03. "NNE winter" will be a challenge, however, as March 2003 is the coldest I've recorded here. Good start, though, with a low on the cool side of -15. Interesting that your met winter was your second coldest of 16... it really was nothing spectacular at the long-term BTV climo spot with an average of -1.3F for MET winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The Euro is yet another miss for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well, today was fantastic day on the hill. Not a powder day by any means but some really good skiing to be had. Fun in the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Snowmobiling in caribou. Pretty cold. Wind isn't helping. Had 396mi for the ride yesterday. By far the most miles in one day for me. A few wrong turns. Lol. Back out today but waiting for out to warm up a bit. Guess we're not getting much of anything on Monday. dam thats a lot of miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 dam thats a lot of miles!yes we were beat. Only 160 today.easy miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 yes we were beat. Only 160 today.easy miles.I just did 100 miles with my 9yo on back and I'm beat. Trails here were great, especially up high. Got behind two groomers at different times so we definitely had some smooth riding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 2.2" at home last night. Total fluff. I see MVL had some moderate snow so it must've been a nice burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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