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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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You guys keep punting...I'll keep going for it on 4th and short.

Likewise I'm sure you'll keep snowing while we wait for flurries, haha. No one goes for it on 4th and 13.

179" at the mountain to date, on a 15-year average of 314" by mid-April. If the next six weeks are fourth down, we've got a ways to go, but maybe we can pull 20" per week from here to the end. The pattern will have to change though.

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Snow squalls would be perfect.  To the average person 70% chance of heavy snow means, cancel plans and expect a snowstorm.  

 

These squalls can be just as, if not more, impactful as snowstorm. Problem is even if I put "isolated heavy snow showers" that graphic will be "heavy snow." We have numerous other products that made it clear these would be snow squalls that were occasionally heavy. That's where we hope the local OCMs read those and make sure the public hears about it.

 

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Likewise I'm sure you'll keep snowing while we wait for flurries, haha. No one goes for it on 4th and 13.

179" at the mountain to date, on a 15-year average of 314" by mid-April. If the next six weeks are fourth down, we've got a ways to go, but maybe we can pull 20" per week from here to the end. The pattern will have to change though.

 

 

I would bet the longterm average is lower than your 15 year average....as it has been at many New England sites...not that it changes the fact you are having a subpar season, but it makes it seem worse if you are comparing to an inflated average. IIRC, BTV is running something like 10% above longterm average in past 15 years. Same goes for down here. I know I'd feel worse if I was trying to compare a season at ORH to like a 76" average vs 69".

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I would bet the longterm average is lower than your 15 year average....as it has been at many New England sites...not that it changes the fact you are having a subpar season, but it makes it seem worse if you are comparing to an inflated average. IIRC, BTV is running something like 10% above longterm average in past 15 years. Same goes for down here. I know I'd feel worse if I was trying to compare a season at ORH to like a 76" average vs 69".

Yeah...I would wager it's probably 280-ish.

In the 15-year rolling average though, the past few years have been pulling it down pretty quickly, with 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 both below 250", after quite a run of 300 or greater inch seasons from 2005-2009.

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Yeah...I would wager it's probably 280-ish.

In the 15-year rolling average though, the past few years have been pulling it down pretty quickly, with 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 both below 250", after quite a run of 300 or greater inch seasons from 2005-2009.

Why do ya'll advertise 333", is that just blatant false advertising? I'm not really judging you for it because everybody does it, but I'm wondering if there is any quantitative basis for it.

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Why do ya'll advertise 333", is that just blatant false advertising? I'm not really judging you for it because everybody does it, but I'm wondering if there is any quantitative basis for it.

I think what he's saying is the 15 year rolling average is 333", but the long term average is lower.

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I would bet the longterm average is lower than your 15 year average....as it has been at many New England sites...not that it changes the fact you are having a subpar season, but it makes it seem worse if you are comparing to an inflated average. IIRC, BTV is running something like 10% above longterm average in past 15 years. Same goes for down here. I know I'd feel worse if I was trying to compare a season at ORH to like a 76" average vs 69".

 

Yeah...I would wager it's probably 280-ish.

 

In the 15-year rolling average though, the past few years have been pulling it down pretty quickly, with 2009-2010 and 2011-2012 both below 250", after quite a run of 300 or greater inch seasons from 2005-2009.

 

I’m not sure that I’m immediately buying the last 15 seasons on Mt. Mansfield as above the long term average with respect to snowfall – we do know that BTV is a dramatically different climate than the top of Mt. Mansfield, and even in the last few years we’ve seen where a great snowfall season at BTV can coincide with a mediocre one on Mt. Mansfield.

 

I decided to run the numbers on the data we do have from Mt. Mansfield co-op site; it’s only since the 1954-55 season, but as it’s all we’ve got, it’ll have to do.  We know that the Mt. Mansfield co-op data collection method is somewhat flawed due to high winds combined with collection in a recessed container, but as PF has said, it should at least be consistent and the data comparable over the period unless changes were made to the methods at some point.  The 1954-1955, 1963-1964, and 1975-1976 seasons were omitted from the analysis because of large periods of missing data, but all other seasons in the period were used to calculate average season snowfall:

 

1955-1956 through 1997-1998:  208.5”

1998-1999 through 2012-2013:  207.7”

1955-1956 through 2012-2013:  208.3”

 

Visual representation of the data is in the chart below:

 

26FEB14A.jpg

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Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

As with yesterday’s shortwave, today’s (#3 in the series) delivered 0.2” of snow, although I could only get a trace of liquid out this evening’s sample.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 17.7 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches

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Posted 11 February 2014 - 08:05 AM
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adk, on 11 Feb 2014 - 08:03 AM, said:snapback.png

We can all hope, but in this winter, does anybody really believe that this weeks event will be something more than a coastal storm? Any by coastal I include the 3 feet of snow that could fall in Maine...Maine is the coast in my book.

Personally I'm way more interested in the wave out of the GL on saturday. That has 8-10 along the Spine written all over it....

lol I know you're on the same page as me. In winter 2013-2014 is anyone expecting anything different? Persistence forecasting is the way to go.

 

 

Just wanted to remind you folks of your sentiments a mere 2 days before the valentines day event.  how'd that work out????  keep the faith.

Gotta run to sacrifice more chickens.  :sled:

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Missed all but a few flakes yesterday at my place - drove past a bit of new snow from AUG to within 3-4 miles of home, then nada.  Maybe today can do better.  12z gfs was "entertaining" - days 1-8 cold and dry, 0.03" qpf total.  Days 9-16 (which fortunately don't mean much) are an 8-day summary of the worst of January:  Temp averages about 10F below normal, nearly 3" qpf, and we might squeeze 1-2" snow between the two rainstorms.

 

And the latest gfs 120-hr clown map has accumulating snow everywhere east of MN and north of VA, except for one small patch that bags both Jeff's and my home range.

  :axe:

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I’m not sure that I’m immediately buying the last 15 seasons on Mt. Mansfield as above the long term average with respect to snowfall – we do know that BTV is a dramatically different climate than the top of Mt. Mansfield, and even in the last few years we’ve seen where a great snowfall season at BTV can coincide with a mediocre one on Mt. Mansfield.

 

I decided to run the numbers on the data we do have from Mt. Mansfield co-op site; it’s only since the 1954-55 season, but as it’s all we’ve got, it’ll have to do.  We know that the Mt. Mansfield co-op data collection method is somewhat flawed due to high winds combined with collection in a recessed container, but as PF has said, it should at least be consistent and the data comparable over the period unless changes were made to the methods at some point.  The 1954-1955, 1963-1964, and 1975-1976 seasons were omitted from the analysis because of large periods of missing data, but all other seasons in the period were used to calculate average season snowfall:

 

1955-1956 through 1997-1998:  208.5”

1998-1999 through 2012-2013:  207.7”

1955-1956 through 2012-2013:  208.3”

 

Visual representation of the data is in the chart below:

 

26FEB14A.jpg

 

Awesome data, J.Spin... thanks for putting this together.  I've definitely saved that graph for later use. 

 

Maybe there really isn't any real change as of late regarding snowfall up there?  My only issue is that the collection method can lead to some more variable results... as in we may have a season with a larger than normal amount of relatively calm wind snowstorms, or wet snowfalls, in which the precip can will accumulate more easily.  Or you could have a winter with a ton of windy upslope fluff storms that seem to be the worst type for accumulating in the can. 

 

But I would say that is probably enough data to see no real trend in snowfall amounts of late. 

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nuking in Waterbury.  Drive home from Waterbury (usually 10 minutes from downtown) took 20+ minutes.  No visibility.  2"/hr or more I'd guess.

 

Yeah I'm pretty sure we peaked at 3-4"/hr type rates.  That was incredibly heavy snow.  I'll go out in a few minutes and see what's on the snow board.

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Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

Our point forecast called for 1-2” today with the passage of that first wave of snowfall, so this evening’s accumulation seems right on; there was some robust snowfall there for a time, probably 1-2”/hr, but it had tapered to flurries by 7:00 P.M.

 

Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 18.9

Snow Density: 5.3% H2O

Temperature: 15.8 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

 

On a seasonal note, this storm brought total snowfall past the century mark here.  Reaching that point is one of the benchmarks I like to use for comparison, and in this case it indicates that we’re about three weeks behind average pace, and about 30 inches down on snowfall.  On a somewhat positive note, this event puts February’s snowfall at 40.6”, which is just reaching average, but it’s a huge step compared to December and January, which were 64.5% and 43.0% of average, respectively.

 

The forecast calls for a similar 1-2” of snow tonight, so we’ll have to see if any of the upstream echoes drop anything in this area.

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