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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.17” L.E.

 

Yesterday’s storm added another 0.8” of snow overnight when that last impulse of moisture pushed through.  This event had a similar liquid equivalent to the previous one at our location, but less than half the snow, as the smaller flakes resulted in denser accumulations.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.4

Snow Density: 8.8% H2O

Temperature: 25.9 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

 

North to south storm totals from the Vermont ski areas for this event are listed below:

 

Jay Peak: 3”

Burke: 2”

Smuggler’s Notch: 5”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 2”

Mad River Glen: 1”

Sugarbush: 2”

Pico: 4”

Killington: 4”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 5”

Magic Mountain: 4”

Stratton: 3”

Mount Snow: 5”

 

Up next on the winter storm docket appears to be a mixed precipitation event, with our point forecast calling for 2-4” of accumulation overnight tonight on the front end before some freezing rain/rain.  There does appear to be some potential for snow on the back side based on what I see on the models, but with the point forecast suggesting little accumulation, and the BTV NWS crew not mentioning much, snow will probably be on the lean side with the cold front as is often the case with these types of systems.  Beyond that, the NWS discussion mentions the possibility of snow showers from weak shortwave troughs embedded in the large mid/upper level trough over the northern U.S.

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Up next on the winter storm docket appears to be a mixed precipitation event, with our point forecast calling for 2-4” of accumulation overnight tonight on the front end before some freezing rain/rain.

 

I see that the advisory and projected accumulations maps for the upcoming storm are posted on the BTV NWS website – Winter Weather Advisories cover all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, with 2-4” accumulations to the east of the Greens in the northern half of the state.

 

20FEB14A.jpg

 

20FEB14B.jpg

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9-10 hr of SN-- brought me 0.6" new snow.  Looking at 80+ cocorahs reports for Maine/NH, I find the next lowest to be 0.8" (though 3 NH stations have N/A for snow - for each, other reports from the same counties had 0.8" to over 2".)  With the exception of the Feb 2 overperformer, these little sub-advisory events have all come up well short of their (admittedly modest) forecasts this winter, and have featured some of the most excruciatingly low accum rates I can recall.  Fortunately, the larger events have almost all verified, with Dec 29-30 overperforming.  Thus my season total is 9" above the avg thru 2/20, though I've backed into last place among Maineiacs posting in the snow table.

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9-10 hr of SN-- brought me 0.6" new snow.  Looking at 80+ cocorahs reports for Maine/NH, I find the next lowest to be 0.8" (though 3 NH stations have N/A for snow - for each, other reports from the same counties had 0.8" to over 2".)  With the exception of the Feb 2 overperformer, these little sub-advisory events have all come up well short of their (admittedly modest) forecasts this winter, and have featured some of the most excruciatingly low accum rates I can recall.  Fortunately, the larger events have almost all verified, with Dec 29-30 overperforming.  Thus my season total is 9" above the avg thru 2/20, though I've backed into last place among Maineiacs posting in the snow table.

 

You and i have been changing seats back there all year............. :lol:

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you know hat the avg is around raymond? probably have to go with gyx.

 

GYX records only go back to the mid-1990s.  Their avg is something like 81" but the median is only 68".  Might be better to look at a long-time COOP like LEW - their avg 81-10 (some recent records missing) is 65" and for 71-00 (more complete) it's 70".  For each period the median is 5" less.  Given your elev, I'd pick half way between GYX/LEW, or near 75".

 

Edit:  The map for NW Aroostook unfortunately is based on COOPs (Ft.Kent and Allagash) which measure once a day, and appear to calculate daily snowfall directly from snowpack change.  When I lived in FK, my snowfall was consistently about 15% greatert than at CAR (the 116" on the map), and one could almost always note the increased snowpack while traveling CAR-FK.  Allagash would usually get more than FK.

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NWS decided to add this part of the CPV to the advisory for 1-3" on the front end before the change to rain. I am more inclined to buy 1" or less but we shall see. Either way it is a moot point with it going to rain. After the rainer it is dry and cold with occasional weak northern stream disturbances. Not much to look forward to there through the end of the month. On to March.

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Did a quick BC tour around Bolton today.  The sun definitely went to work on the S-SW aspects with a slight zipper crust by later afternoon.  The snow was still blocky, had a few slabs roll out from underneath me.  The Bolton area has a lot of not-so-great exposures on the frontside- and the lack of base (just the recent 2ft dense stuff over rocks/stumps) showed itself in the more fatally-exposed areas.

 

Overall, a very nice day up high.  Lots of great turns to be had.  Will have to do more searching around Cotton Brook and adjacent areas for the where I suspect the goods are.  Have yet to find inspiring terrain around that area of the Greens, but it's got a nice feel in general.  Great for hikes, Nordic skiing, and just hanging around in the snow.

 

Hope the next 24 hour run is a net gain for the snowpack- it needs some heft to get us through another 2 months of skiing. So a few inches of schlop and then some liquid injection may not be the end of the world.  Just need the refresh there after.

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Did a quick BC tour around Bolton today.  The sun definitely went to work on the S-SW aspects with a slight zipper crust by later afternoon.  The snow was still blocky, had a few slabs roll out from underneath me.  The Bolton area has a lot of not-so-great exposures on the frontside- and the lack of base (just the recent 2ft dense stuff over rocks/stumps) showed itself in the more fatally-exposed areas.

 

Overall, a very nice day up high.  Lots of great turns to be had.  Will have to do more searching around Cotton Brook and adjacent areas for the where I suspect the goods are.  Have yet to find inspiring terrain around that area of the Greens, but it's got a nice feel in general.  Great for hikes, Nordic skiing, and just hanging around in the snow.

 

Hope the next 24 hour run is a net gain for the snowpack- it needs some heft to get us through another 2 months of skiing. So a few inches of schlop and then some liquid injection may not be the end of the world.  Just need the refresh there after.

 

The main issue is there is nothing appreciable in range in the forecast for at least the next week. Mountains with snowmaking will far a lot better.

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The main issue is there is nothing appreciable in range in the forecast for at least the next week. Mountains with snowmaking will far a lot better.

 

It's been a solid 2 weeks in NNE, especially the higher  elevations- definitely a good stretch for this winter in this area.  In general, this winter tested our perceptions of what to expect. We'll get another round of good snow soon enough.  It's been a fun winter with the highs coming out of the lows.  The next 4 weeks is the best stretch for snow around here if I'm not mistaken.  J. Spin may provide may have data to contradict me here, but slightly longer days, deeper snowpack, and the generally good climo for snowfall during this stretch is promising.  

 

PF- how far behind in total snowfall is the mountain?  The Mansfield stake looks to be right at average depth (though it's obvious trend is for below average total snowfall).  The stake's at 59", and there's ~20" that isn't exactly fluff that got it close to the 5 foot mark- not bad.

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NWS decided to add this part of the CPV to the advisory for 1-3" on the front end before the change to rain. I am more inclined to buy 1" or less but we shall see.

 

I see that – with the Champlain Valley filled in, the Winter Weather Advisories are now continuous out to the far western part of Northern New York.  I don’t see any changes in the projected accumulations map, it’s still got those 2-4” accumulations to the east of the Greens in the northern half of the state.

 

20FEB14C.jpg

 

Currently here at 495’ we’ve got temperature of 34.2 F and an occasional mix of snow and rain coming down.  The precipitation on radar looks a bit steadier than what we’re seeing at the moment:

 

20FEB14A.gif

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It's been a solid 2 weeks in NNE, especially the higher  elevations- definitely a good stretch for this winter in this area.  In general, this winter tested our perceptions of what to expect. We'll get another round of good snow soon enough.  It's been a fun winter with the highs coming out of the lows.  The next 4 weeks is the best stretch for snow around here if I'm not mistaken.  J. Spin may provide may have data to contradict me here, but slightly longer days, deeper snowpack, and the generally good climo for snowfall during this stretch is promising.

 

That’s an interesting question – I have my snowfall data easily assembled by month, but not by other “four-week” segments to check.  This next four week period looks good in the data though, with close to 35-40” on average here in the valley, vs. something more like 30-35 for the preceding four weeks – even before this incredibly low January in terms of snowfall, my data already show a nadir for the month with respect to December and February.  One can usually double my numbers for a good approximation of what falls in the mountains, so that should certainly be a good stretch.  Also, if one looks at the Mt. Mansfield snowpack plot, you can see that on average the snowpack just continues to grow over these next four weeks at a similar pace to what it does all winter, so that’s a good sign of continued snowfall.

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