powderfreak Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Snow picking back up...Mountain Road has a fresh dusting on it. Upslope looking radar. Sorry... I don't know why when I attach a radar screen save from a mobile device, the image comes out massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 1.0" on the nose yesterday. Taking today & tomorrow off from work--got several building roofs to clear before any rain in-coming (my place and my snowbird parent's...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.17” L.E. Yesterday’s storm added another 0.8” of snow overnight when that last impulse of moisture pushed through. This event had a similar liquid equivalent to the previous one at our location, but less than half the snow, as the smaller flakes resulted in denser accumulations. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.8 inches New Liquid: 0.07 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 11.4 Snow Density: 8.8% H2O Temperature: 25.9 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches North to south storm totals from the Vermont ski areas for this event are listed below: Jay Peak: 3” Burke: 2” Smuggler’s Notch: 5” Stowe: 3” Bolton Valley: 2” Mad River Glen: 1” Sugarbush: 2” Pico: 4” Killington: 4” Okemo: 2” Bromley: 5” Magic Mountain: 4” Stratton: 3” Mount Snow: 5” Up next on the winter storm docket appears to be a mixed precipitation event, with our point forecast calling for 2-4” of accumulation overnight tonight on the front end before some freezing rain/rain. There does appear to be some potential for snow on the back side based on what I see on the models, but with the point forecast suggesting little accumulation, and the BTV NWS crew not mentioning much, snow will probably be on the lean side with the cold front as is often the case with these types of systems. Beyond that, the NWS discussion mentions the possibility of snow showers from weak shortwave troughs embedded in the large mid/upper level trough over the northern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Up next on the winter storm docket appears to be a mixed precipitation event, with our point forecast calling for 2-4” of accumulation overnight tonight on the front end before some freezing rain/rain. I see that the advisory and projected accumulations maps for the upcoming storm are posted on the BTV NWS website – Winter Weather Advisories cover all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, with 2-4” accumulations to the east of the Greens in the northern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 1.1" yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 9-10 hr of SN-- brought me 0.6" new snow. Looking at 80+ cocorahs reports for Maine/NH, I find the next lowest to be 0.8" (though 3 NH stations have N/A for snow - for each, other reports from the same counties had 0.8" to over 2".) With the exception of the Feb 2 overperformer, these little sub-advisory events have all come up well short of their (admittedly modest) forecasts this winter, and have featured some of the most excruciatingly low accum rates I can recall. Fortunately, the larger events have almost all verified, with Dec 29-30 overperforming. Thus my season total is 9" above the avg thru 2/20, though I've backed into last place among Maineiacs posting in the snow table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 9-10 hr of SN-- brought me 0.6" new snow. Looking at 80+ cocorahs reports for Maine/NH, I find the next lowest to be 0.8" (though 3 NH stations have N/A for snow - for each, other reports from the same counties had 0.8" to over 2".) With the exception of the Feb 2 overperformer, these little sub-advisory events have all come up well short of their (admittedly modest) forecasts this winter, and have featured some of the most excruciatingly low accum rates I can recall. Fortunately, the larger events have almost all verified, with Dec 29-30 overperforming. Thus my season total is 9" above the avg thru 2/20, though I've backed into last place among Maineiacs posting in the snow table. You and i have been changing seats back there all year............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You and i have been changing seats back there all year............. At least we're both ahead of the curve, not struggling to reach 30" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 40F Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 At least we're both ahead of the curve, not struggling to reach 30" for the season. Just not as above avg compared to others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 1.1" yesterday Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Just not as above avg compared to others you know hat the avg is around raymond? probably have to go with gyx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 you know hat the avg is around raymond? probably have to go with gyx. You can probably get a good idea from this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Watching the meltdown here today followed by the rainer tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 42/20 Warmest in probably like a month, but limited snow melt...low dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 You can probably get a good idea from this map Maines Avg Snowfall.jpg Around 70". Thanks for the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 you know hat the avg is around raymond? probably have to go with gyx. GYX records only go back to the mid-1990s. Their avg is something like 81" but the median is only 68". Might be better to look at a long-time COOP like LEW - their avg 81-10 (some recent records missing) is 65" and for 71-00 (more complete) it's 70". For each period the median is 5" less. Given your elev, I'd pick half way between GYX/LEW, or near 75". Edit: The map for NW Aroostook unfortunately is based on COOPs (Ft.Kent and Allagash) which measure once a day, and appear to calculate daily snowfall directly from snowpack change. When I lived in FK, my snowfall was consistently about 15% greatert than at CAR (the 116" on the map), and one could almost always note the increased snowpack while traveling CAR-FK. Allagash would usually get more than FK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 1.1" yesterday Finished with 1.5" here. Dense almost sand-like consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Finished with 1.5" here. Dense almost sand-like consistency. It is amazing how many poor snow growth episodes we have had. I have seen a lot of sugar fall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 NWS decided to add this part of the CPV to the advisory for 1-3" on the front end before the change to rain. I am more inclined to buy 1" or less but we shall see. Either way it is a moot point with it going to rain. After the rainer it is dry and cold with occasional weak northern stream disturbances. Not much to look forward to there through the end of the month. On to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Did a quick BC tour around Bolton today. The sun definitely went to work on the S-SW aspects with a slight zipper crust by later afternoon. The snow was still blocky, had a few slabs roll out from underneath me. The Bolton area has a lot of not-so-great exposures on the frontside- and the lack of base (just the recent 2ft dense stuff over rocks/stumps) showed itself in the more fatally-exposed areas. Overall, a very nice day up high. Lots of great turns to be had. Will have to do more searching around Cotton Brook and adjacent areas for the where I suspect the goods are. Have yet to find inspiring terrain around that area of the Greens, but it's got a nice feel in general. Great for hikes, Nordic skiing, and just hanging around in the snow. Hope the next 24 hour run is a net gain for the snowpack- it needs some heft to get us through another 2 months of skiing. So a few inches of schlop and then some liquid injection may not be the end of the world. Just need the refresh there after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Did a quick BC tour around Bolton today. The sun definitely went to work on the S-SW aspects with a slight zipper crust by later afternoon. The snow was still blocky, had a few slabs roll out from underneath me. The Bolton area has a lot of not-so-great exposures on the frontside- and the lack of base (just the recent 2ft dense stuff over rocks/stumps) showed itself in the more fatally-exposed areas. Overall, a very nice day up high. Lots of great turns to be had. Will have to do more searching around Cotton Brook and adjacent areas for the where I suspect the goods are. Have yet to find inspiring terrain around that area of the Greens, but it's got a nice feel in general. Great for hikes, Nordic skiing, and just hanging around in the snow. Hope the next 24 hour run is a net gain for the snowpack- it needs some heft to get us through another 2 months of skiing. So a few inches of schlop and then some liquid injection may not be the end of the world. Just need the refresh there after. The main issue is there is nothing appreciable in range in the forecast for at least the next week. Mountains with snowmaking will far a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 The main issue is there is nothing appreciable in range in the forecast for at least the next week. Mountains with snowmaking will far a lot better.It may never snow again Seriously though, we have another month of solid snow chances, two in higher elevations. We'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It may never snow again Seriously though, we have another month of solid snow chances, two in higher elevations. We'll be fine. I am looking to early march and hoping we see a trend in the models our way in the opening week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The main issue is there is nothing appreciable in range in the forecast for at least the next week. Mountains with snowmaking will far a lot better. It's been a solid 2 weeks in NNE, especially the higher elevations- definitely a good stretch for this winter in this area. In general, this winter tested our perceptions of what to expect. We'll get another round of good snow soon enough. It's been a fun winter with the highs coming out of the lows. The next 4 weeks is the best stretch for snow around here if I'm not mistaken. J. Spin may provide may have data to contradict me here, but slightly longer days, deeper snowpack, and the generally good climo for snowfall during this stretch is promising. PF- how far behind in total snowfall is the mountain? The Mansfield stake looks to be right at average depth (though it's obvious trend is for below average total snowfall). The stake's at 59", and there's ~20" that isn't exactly fluff that got it close to the 5 foot mark- not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Hit 49f today. The pack took little beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It started snowing here in Peacham about 6:30 while I was raking the barn roof. Light coating already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Snowing here in Waterbury. No accumulation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 NWS decided to add this part of the CPV to the advisory for 1-3" on the front end before the change to rain. I am more inclined to buy 1" or less but we shall see. I see that – with the Champlain Valley filled in, the Winter Weather Advisories are now continuous out to the far western part of Northern New York. I don’t see any changes in the projected accumulations map, it’s still got those 2-4” accumulations to the east of the Greens in the northern half of the state. Currently here at 495’ we’ve got temperature of 34.2 F and an occasional mix of snow and rain coming down. The precipitation on radar looks a bit steadier than what we’re seeing at the moment: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 It's been a solid 2 weeks in NNE, especially the higher elevations- definitely a good stretch for this winter in this area. In general, this winter tested our perceptions of what to expect. We'll get another round of good snow soon enough. It's been a fun winter with the highs coming out of the lows. The next 4 weeks is the best stretch for snow around here if I'm not mistaken. J. Spin may provide may have data to contradict me here, but slightly longer days, deeper snowpack, and the generally good climo for snowfall during this stretch is promising. That’s an interesting question – I have my snowfall data easily assembled by month, but not by other “four-week” segments to check. This next four week period looks good in the data though, with close to 35-40” on average here in the valley, vs. something more like 30-35 for the preceding four weeks – even before this incredibly low January in terms of snowfall, my data already show a nadir for the month with respect to December and February. One can usually double my numbers for a good approximation of what falls in the mountains, so that should certainly be a good stretch. Also, if one looks at the Mt. Mansfield snowpack plot, you can see that on average the snowpack just continues to grow over these next four weeks at a similar pace to what it does all winter, so that’s a good sign of continued snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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