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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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In a little confession here I realize I have let way too much of the weenie, more than putting on my meteorology hat. I have let the troller coaster of emotions trump the science too often. As for the NWS I do realize BTV has a very difficult task in dealing with terrain, microclimates, and other small scale factors that many models will miss. I wasn't intending to go on a bashing spree of any kind, just stating I noticed some snow forecasts being off. Hell, I haven't done any better myself that is for sure (of course I am getting used to how it works here still). January jaded me, but February has been good with a pair of 8" storms and a few smaller events making up for lost ground. After the warm up at the end of this week we do hit another cold pattern, I haven't seen any real disagreement there. The question is how will the eventual storm track respond. The Euro says congrats NC on the 25th/26th, and would suggest we depend on the northern stream disturbances again, but of course the last storm ended up coming up to New England after starting off as more of a OTS solution.

 

0.7" for today so far.

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definitely showing a bit of teeth on this one.  Running errands and and after going for a ski it's at about 3" here.  Lots of drifting from this morning out in the meadows.  Watched a school bus getting pulled in front of my house by the town plow truck. Knew it was steep, but now I realized why it's the only ~150 yards of asphalt on about a 5 mile stretch.   Coming down nicely at maybe 1/2"/hr now.

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About 3.5" here and still snowing.

Eyewall, don't worry about it. You have been a very welcome addition to our mini-sub forum. Just look at last Friday as an example of tough accumulation forecasts. PF was reporting 5" while areas just a couple of miles away had double that. Even mets with years of experience up here can have a hard time once and a while. Now about this Friday's warmup, my P&C has gone from rain and 45* to frzra changing to RA and a high of 40*. How much rain is going to fall?

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Today's storm total 6".  Light snow began around 8am and ended late morning.  Couple of hours of just cloudy and then light snow began in the early afternoon.  It became moderate at times with a 10 minute period of heavy snow with less than 1/4 mile vis.  A nice average "snowy day".  Nothing rememberable.   Just missed the good stuff again.

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About 3.5" here and still snowing.

Eyewall, don't worry about it. You have been a very welcome addition to our mini-sub forum. Just look at last Friday as an example of tough accumulation forecasts. PF was reporting 5" while areas just a couple of miles away had double that. Even mets with years of experience up here can have a hard time once and a while. Now about this Friday's warmup, my P&C has gone from rain and 45* to frzra changing to RA and a high of 40*. How much rain is going to fall?

 

This.

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This stuff started settling almost as soon as it was done. Will go down as an even 4.0". I could tell by the cleared driveway that a few more tenths fell, but the depth remain unchanged. Nice surprise and wintery scene...fell with no wind so it stacked up on every little branch and elevated object.

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So what's the deal for tomorrow?  My P+C has rain, but none of the models do.

WPC shows a weaker copy of today.

lowtrack.gif

tommorrow's low track looks more progressive than today with all the models and i don't see qpf coming nearly as far into CNH as today's did

 

if there is any Shift East last 12 hrs like we saw on today's models than a good deal of NH may miss out in fact....that said .....Nam looks good on NH/Maine border up past rochester for a few hours of lift up to about Gunstock and then over to sebago and the poster at 750 or so'

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In a little confession here I realize I have let way too much of the weenie, more than putting on my meteorology hat. I have let the troller coaster of emotions trump the science too often. As for the NWS I do realize BTV has a very difficult task in dealing with terrain, microclimates, and other small scale factors that many models will miss. I wasn't intending to go on a bashing spree of any kind, just stating I noticed some snow forecasts being off. Hell, I haven't done any better myself that is for sure (of course I am getting used to how it works here still). January jaded me, but February has been good with a pair of 8" storms and a few smaller events making up for lost ground. After the warm up at the end of this week we do hit another cold pattern, I haven't seen any real disagreement there. The question is how will the eventual storm track respond. The Euro says congrats NC on the 25th/26th, and would suggest we depend on the northern stream disturbances again, but of course the last storm ended up coming up to New England after starting off as more of a OTS solution.

 

0.7" for today so far.

I've been rooting for you all winter. If and when I move up to vt, I'm going to want 5000" of snow my first winter.

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No way, really?!

The NWS PNS shows another report of 4.0" out of Moscow, too...I feel very confident in my measurement but that's like half. A friend in Sterling Valley had a similar 3.5-4" amount, too, and that's near you right?

 

Way.  Just went out and double checked the amount in the driveway in a couple spots.  Definitely not enough to shovel :)

 

We are near Foxfire on Stagecoach Rd

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Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.19” L.E.

 

There was 3.9” on the snowboard when I checked at 6:00 P.M. today, and then another tenth of an inch fell before it really tapered down. 

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 3.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.19 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.5

Snow Density: 4.9% H2O

Temperature: 22.6 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 19.5 inches

 

Sledding with the boys was fantastic tonight with the new 5% champagne on top of the snowpack – it was calm with brilliant stars, but flakes were still filtering down at times.  Indeed the snow has picked back up as of late as PF mentioned, with 0.3” on the board.  Interestingly, that now puts this season’s snowfall neck and neck with last season for this date, at 95.4”.

 

The forecast suggests that there are additional snow chances over the next couple of days, and then again during the weekend.

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