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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EST FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING
ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH N-NW WINDS AROUND
5-15KTS...AND CPV EAST HAVING GUSTS OF 20-30KTS. GUSTY WINDS AND
BLSN ARE RESULTING IN HIGHLY VARIED SNOWFALL REPORTS.

AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TOWARDS COASTAL MAINE...HEAVIER SNOWFALL
CONTINUES TO PIVOT ABOUT THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH SRN VT
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL...AS INDICATED BY WARMER
CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY AND LESS INTENSE REFLECTIVITIES. NE
MOISTURE FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...WITH
CENTRAL AND NRN VT AND NWRN SLV CONTINUING TO SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL
THROUGH MID MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AND LIFTS N OF
FA...AS WIND FLOW SHIFTS MORE N/NW ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SNOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY. BY 18Z...EXPECT NW
UPSLOPE TO TAKE OVER AS SFC LOW MOVES TO SERN MAINE COAST. BUT
BLSN WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE...ALLOWING
GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN.

MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS OF SNOWFALL AMNTS TO SHOW SHADOWING THAT HAS
OCCURRED ESP IN THE CPV THROUGH THE OVERNGT HRS.
EXPECT HEAVIER
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING AND UPSLOPE TO STILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMNTS AS STORM TOTAL.

 

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Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.70” L.E.

 

I didn’t clear the snowboard at midnight last night, since there was only about an inch or so on it, and the snow had really shut off since we appeared to be in the dry slot of the storm.  This morning the board had 4.4” on it, and it was impressively dense with 0.57” of liquid in it.  This is just what the off piste and remaining natural snow trails needed though in terms of liquid equivalent, if this can be topped off with some fluff the skiing should be great.  The snow continues to come down heavily, with small flakes in general

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 4.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.57 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.7

Snow Density: 13.0% H2O

Temperature: 23.2 F

Sky: Snow/Heavy Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

 

 

 

 

Nice, J.Spin!  Thanks for the liquid analysis... I knew this stuff was ridiculously dense.  We have the QPF, but not the snowfall.  0.57" for 4.4" of snowfall sounds about right for what I'm seeing at the mountain.  This stuff is like cold concrete somehow.

 

Instead of 7.7 to 1 ratios, if we did like 15:1 as forecast, we'd probably be around 10" so far and dumping.  Although no complaints...the mountain off-piste snowpack just needed QPF in the form of snow...no matter if its 20" or 10".  Just get as much QPF into that base as possible.

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Visibility looks like fog outside in the heavy snow, but man these are the smallest flakes I've ever seen.  Almost like sleety flakes.

 

It’s hard to assess the snowfall rates compared to the bigger flakes we usually see, but this stuff is indeed accumulating quite quickly – I’ve got the J&E Productions Web Cam running and it looks like an inch an hour based on what we’ve received since the 6:00 A.M. clearing:

 

14FEB14B.jpg

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Just confirming this - Torrential downpour summer style t-storm then heavy sleet topped with 6" of glue overnight. All of that on top of 15" in the morning that was followed by sleet and 6+ hours of rain.

Crazy storm in the lower hv. Last night, we had a thunderstorm with pouring rain/sleet. The house was shaking. Got another 6" after that. Probably 20" total. Hope you guys are rocking it out. I'm heading up after work this afternoon. Sb reporting 12" as of 6:30. Let it roll.

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So did anyone in VT get 18-24"?

Wasn't that forecasted along the spine, mostly? It's still snowing, and with improved ratios and additional accumulations- somewhere probably could hit 18".  The ratios aren't as high as expected- shoveling this stuff wasn't fun. We had some fluff that fell last night here, and now it's compacted a bit in an upside-down scenario.  

 

Smuggs is reporting 8-12" overnight.  Add in an inch or two from yesterday, and another 3-5" today- and  you probably hit near that number.  The ratios were definitely off on the forecast- but it's tough to complain about a waking up to a nice dumping of snow, and a good addition to the snowpack

 

Wonder what PF will come in at from up top.

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Posted in the storm thread, but will post it here too.

 

Storm total was 13.4" with 1.33" of liquid. It wasn't 10:1 throughout though. Yesterday was 8.3"/0.62" and since midnight we added on 5.1"/0.71" with 1" of that being sleet.

 

Snow depth is now up to about 29-30". Deep deep winter.

 

Currently 27.6F with scattered -SHSN and BKN skies.

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border report:

 

woke up at 5 to 5" heavy snow

J had 6-8" to start the skin up, wicked awful out, heavy winds, heavy snow, just laughing how numb I am sometime, 2 laps, barely made it home with 6" new on the road and the plows unable to keep up

home at 7:45 to 10"

brightening now a bit, 1" new since 8:30 when I finished the driveway, winds are starting rip here now

 

overall not to bad since the moon was out last night when we went to bed

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Steady light snow in Peacham as I left around 9.  Measured about 7 am and came up with a 13 inch average for the total.  Drifting was not yet too much of an issue.  Looked like we got 11 after 5 yesterday with about 9 or 10 of that being after the lull.  I had to get out and shovel part of the roof first thing to clear a vent and prevent an ice dam from forming.  good times.

 

Eyeballing things in the backyard I would say we have about 22 inches on the ground in the undisturbed areas.  (this is based on how close the snowline is to the top of the fence around the vegetable garden.)

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...ADDISON COUNTY...
CORNWALL 10.0 831 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
3 N SALISBURY 7.1 800 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
ORWELL 6.0 821 AM 2/14 PUBLIC

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...
3 NNW SHEFFIELD 11.4 800 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
4 N WALDEN 10.5 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
LYNDONVILLE 10.1 700 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
WEST BARNET 10.0 923 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
2 SW SUTTON 9.9 702 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 S WHEELOCK 8.5 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
1 W LYNDONVILLE 8.0 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
2 NE SUTTON 7.2 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO 7.1 851 AM 2/14 NWS OFFICE
MILTON 7.0 900 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
2 SE SOUTH BURLINGTO 6.0 735 AM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 NNW WILLISTON 5.5 848 AM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 E NASHVILLE 5.3 645 AM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
4 NNE UNDERHILL 5.2 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
2 NW WESTFORD 4.7 700 AM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 N MALLETTS BAY 4.5 730 AM 2/14 NWS EMPLOYEE

...ESSEX COUNTY...
1 ENE AVERILL 14.1 800 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
LUNENBURG 7.0 600 AM 2/14 BROADCAST MEDIA

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
5 SE MONTGOMERY 7.1 740 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
SWANTON 7.1 815 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
8 NNW FAIRFAX 6.7 740 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
2 NNE ST. ALBANS 6.0 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
MORRISVILLE 14.0 730 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
JEFFERSONVILLE 12.0 820 AM 2/14 FAA EMPLOYEE
EDEN 8.0 730 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
SW STOWE 6.7 730 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
3 NE HYDE PARK 5.8 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
5 N JEFFERSONVILLE 5.5 730 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
STOWE 5.3 530 AM 2/14 750 FT ELEVATION
2 NE JOHNSON 5.0 823 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ORANGE COUNTY...
TUNBRIDGE 17.0 848 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
CORINTH 15.7 645 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
RANDOLPH 14.0 800 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
2 NW CHELSEA 8.5 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
NEWPORT 9.6 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 WNW WESTFIELD 9.0 800 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
3 ENE BARTON 8.5 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
2 NW DERBY CENTER 8.3 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS

...RUTLAND COUNTY...
MT. HOLLY 23.5 900 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
MT. TABOR 15.3 909 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
1 N WEST RUTLAND 13.4 815 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
WEST RUTLAND 13.0 730 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
PITTSFORD 13.0 549 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N RUTLAND 12.7 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
NORTHFIELD 17.0 824 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
EAST MONTPELIER 12.0 600 AM 2/14 BROADCAST MEDIA
2 SE WAITSFIELD 12.0 730 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
5 NNE WATERBURY 11.9 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
MARSHFIELD 11.5 700 AM 2/14 1600 FT ELEVATION
4 ESE MARSHFIELD 11.5 700 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N NORTHFIELD 9.0 715 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
PLAINFIELD 9.0 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 SW MONTPELIER 9.0 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
4 WNW BERLIN 8.5 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
2 SW EAST CALAIS 8.5 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
3 NE WATERBURY 8.0 530 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
3 NW WATERBURY 6.0 600 AM 2/14 COCORAHS

...WINDSOR COUNTY...
3 N POMFRET 18.3 700 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
3 S LUDLOW 18.3 906 AM 2/14 TRAINED SPOTTER
WINDSOR 18.0 700 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
BRIDGEWATER CORNERS 17.0 922 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
N HARTLAND RES 15.5 700 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
BETHEL 15.5 600 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
WOODSTOCK 15.0 800 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER
CHESTER 14.0 820 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
ROCHESTER 14.0 822 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
WILDER 13.3 824 AM 2/14 PUBLIC
1 WSW LUDLOW 12.5 800 AM 2/14 COCORAHS
1 S ROCHESTER 12.0 629 AM 2/14 CO-OP OBSERVER

 

 

 

Forecast worked out well for eastern and southern VT. Not so much in the CPV...where everyone lives.

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More details in the obs thread (including my adventure in driving), but I'll say here that I'm glad I measured twice.  The 8.0" thru 9 last night was 11:1, a bit denser than I'd thought, but the 3.0" of warm-tongued rimey things overnight had a ratio of 3.4 to 1, which isn't much better than IP, though I didn't see nor hear any pingers.  Two different types of snow.  Snowpack at 29" and massive, probably has about 7-8" of water in it.

 

Still snowing here in AUG, though there's also freezing fog/dz blowing by, I think.

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Looks like PF missed some of the good stuff. Morrisville reporting 14" and a colleague who lives in Elmore said 15" at her house. Her husband, who is a Stowe police officer says there is more than 6" in parts of Stowe. Looking at the reports it almost looks like the Waterbury-Stowe-Hyde Park/Johnson corridor got shadowed. Another colleague who lives in Moretown said about a foot at her house. I had 13" at my house sw of Barre City at about 1250'.

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Looks like PF missed some of the good stuff. Morrisville reporting 14" and a colleague who lives in Elmore said 15" at her house. Her husband, who is a Stowe police officer says there is more than 6" in parts of Stowe. Looking at the reports it almost looks like the Waterbury-Stowe-Hyde Park/Johnson corridor got shadowed. Another colleague who lives in Moretown said about a foot at her house. I had 13" at my house sw of Barre City at about 1250'.

Something tells me they will catch up at Stowe once the low gets a bit further east and the flow goes more to the NW and W than N.  I could be wrong but I think this will give them some upslope soon enough.  PF will know better.

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Something tells me they will catch up at Stowe once the low gets a bit further east and the flow goes more to the NW and W than N.  I could be wrong but I think this will give them some upslope soon enough.  PF will know better.

I think you're right, they'll catch up, they always catch up.
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