ono Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Are we seeing the NAM and GFS in agreement on the backside deform/baroclinic leaf for Friday AM? Looks like both are showing a slug of moisture around 7AM. We'd be gettting smoked right around rush hour IF it confirms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Are we seeing the NAM and GFS in agreement on the backside deform/baroclinic leaf for Friday AM? Looks like both are showing a slug of moisture around 7AM. We'd be gettting smoked right around rush hour IF it confirms. The 12z NAM is like a 6-hour panel out of the real Valentine's Day storm in 2007. We had a heck of a lot more precip prior and after the band in that storm, but if correct, this could rival those rates briefly. This is the same signal that V-Day '07 had at its peak with 6-hour QPF in the 0.5-1.0" range. Latest SREF ensemble is putting us in the sweet spot for the deformation. Most of these members are big hits, and this is only a 3-hour snapshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 AWT VT people. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Light snow breaking out now here in Hanover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 AWT VT people. AWT. It was touch and go there yesterday for a bit...you could feel it tugging east into ORH/NH. Surprised it came back west. Now it needs to stop, if it's NW of progged it could be ADKs down to ALB lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 AWT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 just poked my head out the window. We actually have some flakes coming down here at 1300'. didn't expect that. Camel's Hump and Sugarbush are dissapearing from view. Hopefully don't see them again until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 No flakes yet here in Montpelier. Still a bit leery of the congrats and AWTs being thrown our way. In some years I wouldn't give it a second thought but there are years like this that seem to be difficult to get good snows (relative to NNE standards). Would love to experience 6" hour rates as reported in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 First tiny flakes in Stowe. Going to work at 4am in the morning should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 11:53 First flakes in st. Johnsbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lake Champlain is "99% frozen over" http://www.wcax.com/story/24714596/report-lake-champlain-99-percent-frozen BURLINGTON, Vt. (AP) - The National Weather Service in Vermont is estimating that Lake Champlain is 99 percent frozen over. National Weather Service meteorologist Andrew Loconto says it's the most ice on the lake since 2007, the last time the lake is believed to have frozen over completely. A century ago the lake would routinely freeze over during the winter. In the 1990s it froze completely only three times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VtWxWatcher Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Light flurries started about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It was touch and go there yesterday for a bit...you could feel it tugging east into ORH/NH. Surprised it came back west. Now it needs to stop, if it's NW of progged it could be ADKs down to ALB lol. We are going to get leveled per 12z Euro. Widespread 1.25" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 First flakes a couple minutes before noon. Very light so far, maybe 0.1" at 1:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 1.0" new 22.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 An encouraging sign: HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TOPERIODS OF FORECAST BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AVAILABLE 12ZGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TONIGHT MADE NEEDTO BE UPPED A FEW INCHES...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN VERMONT ANDMUCH OF NORTHERN NY. WILL WAIT FOR REST OF GUIDANCE TO MAKE ANYCHANGES TO EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It was tough to argue with a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the GOM. It's even tougher to argue with a 975 mb low going over Boston and heading up the coast of Maine. Just about an ideal track for most of VT. We are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We are going to get leveled per 12z Euro. Widespread 1.25" qpf Modeling seems to signify a death band hanging nearly north to south for many hours tomorrow morning. Wherever that sets up and maximizes will see amounts in excess of forecasted ranges. Latest models indicate that's probably going to set up somewhere between BTV-RUT and 1V4-LEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 It was tough to argue with a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the GOM. It's even tougher to argue with a 975 mb low going over Boston and heading up the coast of Maine. Just about an ideal track for most of VT. We are golden. Reading this from you, I am now fully invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah I am backing off my worried stance some. We should begin with the WAA light snow soon enough here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It was touch and go there yesterday for a bit...you could feel it tugging east into ORH/NH. Surprised it came back west. Now it needs to stop, if it's NW of progged it could be ADKs down to ALB lol. Yee of little faith! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 First flakes here at 2pm almost on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It was tough to argue with a 980mb low going over the Cape and into the GOM. It's even tougher to argue with a 975 mb low going over Boston and heading up the coast of Maine. Just about an ideal track for most of VT. We are golden. Agreed...climo speaking this is just a classic track. It's why I always say in the main threads that for up here, we want that low sitting in Boston Harbor. I threw caution to the wind and went 10-18" for a mountain ops forecast this morning for Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah I am backing off my worried stance some. We should begin with the WAA light snow soon enough here. CPV convergence and blocked flow tomorrow morning...you will do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 CPV convergence and blocked flow tomorrow morning...you will do great. Yeah I am definitely going to lose sleep tonight Euro paints a 12z crushing (or at least in the period of 6z-12z), Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yes please. Eek...wish you were here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 23.1F moderate snow vis 3/8 about 2" of snow but winds are starting to howl up here on the hill. Looking forward to the "deathband" which is moving in shortly. Will try to get a good one hour snow total as we enter the band. Where does the Euro show the deformation band setting up? Looks to be NW of here. These bands look to move into E VT and then come to a halt. Fun couple of hours ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow BTV not holding back on the Mansfield point and click forecast, lol. This afternoon...Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tonight...Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Friday...Snow. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -1. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 New Map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 30-35dbZ about to hit. http://www.newenglandwx.com/cam/cam.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.