powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man I am so done with this brutal cold stuff...-21F this morning. SLK hit -30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man I am so done with this brutal cold stuff...-21F this morning. SLK hit -30F. I've recorded 32 below zero 24-hour minima for mby this season so far and quite a few more that were right at zero or a degree or two above. In other words, cold cold cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 reached -12F this morning. Nice cold. Did anyone see the AFD out of Atlanta? It's well worth the entire read, but here are two paragraphs (with my bold), with language you just don't see too often: and Meanwhile the Atlanta mayor and Georgia Governor say "Only a half inch of inch? heck we survived two inches of snow. How much of an issue could ice be" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man I am so done with this brutal cold stuff...-21F this morning. SLK hit -30F. My outdoor sensor on the thermometer broke. It makes it easier when you don't know. That said we were only -8 this morning- hillside living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My outdoor sensor on the thermometer broke. It makes it easier when you don't know. That said we were only -8 this morning- hillside living. I thought having some elevation at our new house would help on the cold nights to some extent, but we're typically 5-15F warmer at 730' compared to 1-2 miles down the road at ~300'. I have to check, but I think we've only dropped below zero 3, maybe 4 times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Myself and a few other mets here at LSC are not too thrilled with this storm right now, despite the euro remaining steadfast. If I were west of the greens I'd definitely be even more worried. GYX and BTV have zero continuity near the VT/NH border with GYX 4-6" and BTV 8-10"...I'm leaning toward GYX right now. Too many moving parts to be too excited on the NW edge. First call: NEK west to the greens: 5-8" BTV: 3-6" RUT: 3-6" and downsloped like a mofo. East of the greens from Killington to LEB and southward: 8-14" Most of SW ME: 10-14" with 6-10" on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I thought having some elevation at our new house would help on the cold nights to some extent, but we're typically 5-15F warmer at 730' compared to 1-2 miles down the road at ~300'. I have to check, but I think we've only dropped below zero 3, maybe 4 times this winter. We typically run 5 to 10 degrees warmer at the house in the morning than the bottom of the hill. For example, we sit at 1288' and were -8 this morning while St. J was -18 at about 700 feet. We do usually run cooler first thing in the evening however. Here in St. j it is currently -11.7 (graph is up to date, box is not) http://www.fairbanksmuseum.org/CurrentConditions Peacham is up to 3.0 http://www.nkaf.org/weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 such lack of faith in the euro.I'm sticking with it. I'll take ctsnowstorm's totals and multiply them by 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've recorded 32 below zero 24-hour minima for mby this season so far and quite a few more that were right at zero or a degree or two above. In other words, cold cold cold. 34 times at my place, plus two more right at zero. Odd temp action overnight. It was -1 at 9 PM and, given the forecast, I was anticipating a run at -20. I was up briefly at 3 and it was -1, then after the alarm rang at 5 I looked again and it was still -1. By 6:45 when I headed in to work, temp had plunged to -12. At 9 last evening there was still some light wind, and I'm guessing there was just enough to keep lower levels mixed over the following 8 hr before things calmed down. Noted -24 at BML. I thought having some elevation at our new house would help on the cold nights to some extent, but we're typically 5-15F warmer at 730' compared to 1-2 miles down the road at ~300'. I have to check, but I think we've only dropped below zero 3, maybe 4 times this winter. That's what hills do. Check out CAR vs HUL on still cold mornings. CAR is 50 miles north of HUL, but it's sensor is at the hilltop AP while HUL's is on a valley flat. IZG vs GYX is another example, though being 30 miles farther from the coast also helps IZG. When I moved from the Ft.Kent flats to the back settlement, I gained nearly 500' elev, and 10-15F on cold mornings. On such mornings I'd make the left turn on the settlement road so I was facing the cedar mills in Canada, and if the smoke from their cone burners was layered at 100 yd or so above the ground, I knew our riverside office would be at least 10F colder than at home. However, on a windy day my place might be 3-5F colder, and on marginal-temp snowstorms I'd sometimes get 4-8" snow but no plowing because it was slop that wasn't sticking on the roads in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Myself and a few other mets here at LSC are not too thrilled with this storm right now, despite the euro remaining steadfast. If I were west of the greens I'd definitely be even more worried. GYX and BTV have zero continuity near the VT/NH border with GYX 4-6" and BTV 8-10"...I'm leaning toward GYX right now. Too many moving parts to be too excited on the NW edge. First call: NEK west to the greens: 5-8" BTV: 3-6" RUT: 3-6" and downsloped like a mofo. East of the greens from Killington to LEB and southward: 8-14" Most of SW ME: 10-14" with 6-10" on the coast. Bah humbug! care to throw out a number for the the MRV ob the east slope of the greens??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Because I am worried about a screw job in BTV with the cutoff I would want to go 1-3" (the emotional weeniecast) but for now I think 3-6" is a reasonable number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 there are some saucy graphics being posted in the main storm discussion thread that suggest quite a bit of moisture will be heading into central VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MRG weather blogger Josh Fox is extremely bullish. 15-30" by Friday. 2-3 feet by Sunday (?). I'll be happy it we get 50% of the low end of that forecast. It should be a fun stretch- it'll be white and frozen- the rest is just gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If you are in BTV root for the Euro still, which is holding with a nice baroclinic leaf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You guys in VT should pull 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Back up here after a trip the past 3 days in SC/NC. I was in Columbia SC, Fayetteville NC and flew out of Charlotte yesterday AM. Pure panic mode down there. Looking forward to another 8-12" in this next storm. It seems like its hard for me to get more than 12" in these setups. I was looking at my climate data. Last time I hit 50F was on Nov 18th. 3 months coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hot off the presses!: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 New WSW up here has bumped to totals quite a bit. http://forecast.weat...ng#.UvvUg2JdXag Quote ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON248 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO1 PM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT INCLUDING THE WESTERNPORTIONS OF ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY THURSDAYNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANDBECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOWSHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. Oddly their map mostly show 8 to 11 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Game on from BTV!: FOLLOWING A GEM/UKMET/EURO SOLUTION SHOWS 996MB LOW NEAR CAPEHATTERAS ON 12 THURS...TRACKING TO SOUTHERN NJ BY 00Z FRIDAY ANDOVER CAPE COD BY 12Z FRIDAY AS A 975MB AREA OF LOW PRES.MEANWHILE...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED 85/7H/5H CIRCULATIONS WLTRACK FROM CENTRAL SC TO EASTERN VA TO SNE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS AVERY FAVORABLE SFC AND UPPER AIR TRACK FOR PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL ACRS MOST OF OUR CWA. THINKING STORM WL FEATURE TWO PERIODSOF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. 1ST WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL WAALIFT/FGEN FORCING ON THURS AFTN INTO THURS EVENING...WITH GREATESTIMPACTS ACRS CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. MEANWHILE...2ND ROUND OF MODERATESNOW WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WELL DEFINED BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/FGENFORCING ON FRIDAY MORNING. EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTPLACEMENT OF MESO-BANDING FEATURES 24 TO 36 HRS IN ADVANCE...BUT ALLTHE SYNOPTIC AND MESO SCALE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FORPLACEMENT ACRS OUR FA. ALSO...SHARP PRECIP GRADIENTS/SNOWFALL ARETYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH MESO-SCALE BANDING FEATURES. FOLLOWING THEECMWF PLACES STRONG 850 TO 700MB FORCING ALONG WITH RRQ OF 25H JETACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z THURS/FRIDAY....WITH PIVOT ZN ACRSNORTHERN/CENTRAL VT INTO THE CPV OVERNIGHT...WITH GOOD BACKSIDEDEFORMATION ZN. THIS WL BE ENHANCED BY SECONDARY WARM LAYERCONVEYOR BELT DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WELL DEFINEDMID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT AND WL BE LIFTED OVER THE LLVL COLD AIRCONVEYOR ACRS OUR REGION ON FRI MORNING. ALSO...NORTHERLY FLWDOWN THE CPV WL HELP ENHANCED LLVL LIFT TO PRODUCE ADDITIONALSNOWFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THESE BANDS WLBE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HR WITH VIS <1/2SM. I hope it pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MRG weather blogger Josh Fox is extremely bullish. 15-30" by Friday. 2-3 feet by Sunday (?). I'll be happy it we get 50% of the low end of that forecast. It should be a fun stretch- it'll be white and frozen- the rest is just gravy. He's busted badly many times this winter...just too high on every event. It hasn't been a good winter to be bullish in the Greens so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We've been telling you guys "congrats" for days...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Man 10-16" and some models still have us right on the edge. BTV pushes all the chips into the center of the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We've been telling you guys "congrats" for days...lol. This winter has caused some serious psychological issues to the VT crowd. Haha. I just don't like the American guidance keeping the banding a little east. If that sets up from Berkshires to Whites and ME foothills, we don't come close to 10" because we miss most of the WAA precip. It all hinges on that deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CON with -13F this AM. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 New WSW up here has bumped to totals quite a bit. http://forecast.weat...ng#.UvvUg2JdXag Quote Oddly their map mostly show 8 to 11 inch amounts. Not sure- could elevation play into it? Seems like the upper end would be slightly better ratios at higher elevations, while the map shows 8-11" in the population centers that are <1000' or so. Could be wrong, but they were talking about 12:1 in the valleys and slightly higher in the mountains yesterday in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CON with -13F this AM. Damn. Went from -21F this morning to +25F this afternoon... 46 degree diurnal spread, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 VT'ers... latest SREF mean is very juicy back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Boy that backside looks sick, think my forecast of 8-12" from earlier is too low. It seems like its been sometime since we have had a noreaster with intense backside snows, at least in NH. Am I forgetting them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hot off the presses!: That’s certainly a bump from the previous map; there’s a lot more 10-14” fuchsia on the map now. Winter Storm Warnings have pushed well west on the updated advisories map: I also see back to back heavy snow icons on our point forecast as well, which doesn’t happen every day. The current point forecast snowfall numbers for our location sum to 8-14”, which could make for the largest event of the season so far if the upper half of that range was to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Still not sold on this up here. I think BTV is too high. Thinking 6-10" for many in northern VT with 4-6"/ 5-8" type deal in the CPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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