Lava Rock Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 About the same at my place - there was still some cloud-fuzz around the moon at 10 last night. I don't know how long that persisted, but it couldn't have helped radiation. Might make a run at -20 tonight. QPF on gfs jumped from about 1/3" yesterday to over 1" this morning. We'll see if that persists or was just an oddball run. lol, 8F for the low at my house. -6F down at the bottom of the hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0.5" last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z EURO should make us all happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z EURO should make us all happy! Except those of us on the coastal plain. From what I'm hearing in the "technical" thread, it sounds like a front-end thump followed by rain. Would be great for the mountains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Euro has now been consistent with this track putting VT/NH/ME in the Baroclinic Leaf or Deformation Zone. It has been considered an outlier before but we shall see. Again I don't have access to the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z EURO should make us all happy! how "happy" we talkin'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BTV just pulled a Winter Storm Watch. I am surprised to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 be heading to sunday river thursday for some skiing on friday. Should be a nice, albeit heavy powder day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 BTV just pulled a Winter Storm Watch. I am surprised to see that. Yep, here are the first maps and some discussion that may brighten PF's day GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BTWN AMERICAN AND REST OF THE MODELS WL USE A BLEND BTWN HPC/ECMWF/GFS FOR QPF. THIS SUPPORTS TRACE TO 0.10 SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 0.50 TO 0.75" ACRS THE CPV AND MOST OF VT. EXPECTING A VERY SHARP EAST TO WEST GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA...MAKING FOR AN EXTREMELY CHALLENGING SNOWFALL FCST. USING A 12 TO 1 SNOW RATIO FOR THE VALLEYS AND 15 TO 1 FOR THE MTNS SUGGESTS 6 OR MORE INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM CPV AND POINTS EAST. THINKING AROUND 6 INCHES CPV...TO 6 TO 10 INCHES CENTRAL/EASTERN VT...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM KILLINGTON TO SUGARBUSH TO STOWE. THIS WL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES AND ULVL DYNAMICS CHANGE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. EXPECTING GFS/NAM TO TREND TWD THE ECMWF/UKMET AND GEM SOLUTIONS BY THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT. FCST TEMPS WL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 not bad. widespread 6-10, with 10+ in southern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll sign for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll take 6 on top of current snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think that's a good 'expected' forecast but it almost feels like, given the potency of the system coupled with the existing uncertainty of the exact track, a blend of a 50/50 event of 50% more or less than these #'s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How about this for 3 hour precip totals from 18z gfs 6z to 9z Friday...that would be like 4-6+" of snow over a wide area in just 3 hours around midnight if it verified like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Earlier today I made a bet that we would get 4" or more at Plymouth State. All I need to win is to get >4.0" measured on campus. Really, every model has more than that. Only slight bit of worry would be the fact that it's Plymouth and we will get slightly screwed compared to surrounding areas. But I would be shocked if we got less then 4", or even 8" for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Definitely some encouraging signs in the BTV discussion, especially in regard to potential banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Earlier today I made a bet that we would get 4" or more at Plymouth State. All I need to win is to get >4.0" measured on campus. Really, every model has more than that. Only slight bit of worry would be the fact that it's Plymouth and we will get slightly screwed compared to surrounding areas. But I would be shocked if we got less then 4", or even 8" for that matter. I'll be really happy with anything over 3 or 4" if it breaks that way over here. You guys in NH/ME look golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 what's your take on the torch next weekend, think it makes it into NNE? To be honest, I really haven't looked at it. Haven't really paid attention to after this storm in the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For all my complaining about lack of radiational cooling on dead calm nights, its nice to be the coldest amongst 35 other local wunderground station locations when the wind is kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BTV just pulled a Winter Storm Watch. I am surprised to see that. It seems so early, but presumably confidence is high – watches are out except off to the west in New York: The current point forecast has 4-8” for Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 -12F out right now and dropping like a rock. Took the dog out one last time and man is it crisp out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still 3F here. Winds are calm now so should make a drop to -5 or so but I doubt the -11 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Quiet here. Is this what nervous anticipation sounds like on a message board? All is well. Steady as she goes. I was just thinking. 06-07 was a miserable inferno of a start to winter. Worse than this season. Then came vday and it turned. Vday '14, the sequel, part deux. Obviously not anticipating anything like the original, but curious coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like BTV has upped the ante to a warning now. Still calling for 6"-8" on the map that was updated early this morning. I'm not greedy, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The updated advisories and snowfall maps from the BTV NWS are below – it’s an interesting advisory map thus far with the stripe of Winter Storm Warnings down the middle and Winter Storm Watches still off to the sides; the areas to the west are where the snowfall gradient appears to be tight as outlined in the BTV discussion below. The general accumulations for the Winter Storm Watch areas are anticipated to be in the 8-12” range” …SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...USED A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS/SREF/HPC QPF ALONG WITH CLIMO SLR RATIOS TO ARRIVE AT MY CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ESTIMATE. UKMET TOO ROBUST AND WITH ITS LOWER RESOLUTION HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE MIX. BASED OFF THIS BLEND...MY CONFIDENCE HAS RISEN HIGH ENOUGH TO CONVERT EXISTENT WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF OUR VERMONT COUNTIES...LEAVING CURRENT WATCHES AS IS FOR NOW ACROSS FAR NW VT INTO NY WHERE PCPN GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. THIS SEEMS THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE FOR NOW AND ALLOWS NEEDED WIGGLE ROOM TO ASSESS FUTURE MODEL RUNS LATER TODAY. SO FOR NOW...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING IN THE 8 TO 12 INCH RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA...AND LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WHERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER. It was encouraging listening to Roger Hill’s broadcast this morning – for North-Central Vermont he was going with a general 6-12” snowfall forecast with the first storm on Thursday-Friday, then another light accumulation for the Saturday follow up; he didn’t give numbers, but I’d guess that means 1-3”, depending on what the mountains do, and then 3-6” or 4-8” for the Tuesday storm. For Tuesday he mentioned that we’d have to watch out for mixed precipitation, with the line getting as far north as the Barre-Montpelier area for his estimation at this point. It could be a good several days of snow though with a couple of synoptic storms; that’s something we haven’t seen much this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 -16 & snow on the way. Deep winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am definitely nervous about ending up just west of that cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just a little FYI. MRG has a Valentines day special $14 on Friday. Only catch- you gotta kiss someone (?). Good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just a little FYI. MRG has a Valentines day special $14 on Friday. Only catch- you gotta kiss someone (?). Good timing. I have a feeling there might be a line at the single. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 reached -12F this morning. Nice cold. Did anyone see the AFD out of Atlanta? It's well worth the entire read, but here are two paragraphs (with my bold), with language you just don't see too often: AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE SNOWFALL IS...AND MAKE NO MISTAKE THESE ARESOME IMPRESSIVE TOTALS...IT IS THE ICE THAT WILL HAVE THECATASTROPHIC IMPACTS. A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE NORTHERNEDGE OF THE ICE. FOR EXAMPLE AT AHN...THE GFS WARM NOSE IS A LITTLECOOLER THAN THE NAM AND WOULD RESULT IN MORE SLEET THAN FREEZINGRAIN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEPTH OF THE WARM NOSE...AM STILLLEANING TOWARD KEEPING QUITE A BIT OF FZRA IN THAT AREA. SO WITHTHAT...ICE TOTALS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OUT BUTTHINK THE 1/4 INCH LINE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND MAX TOTALSALONG THE EAST I-20 CORRIDOR ARE BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO OVER AN INCH.ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN CASE IT HASNT BEENMADE CLEAR ALREADY...THESE ARE CATASTROPHIC AND CRIPPLING TOTALSWHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FORDAYS. IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BETOO LATE. and PRETTY SURE THAT THERE ARE SOME THINGS I HAVENT COVERED HERE BUTHOPEFULLY THIS LIGHT READING MATERIAL IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GETEVERYONES DAY STARTED. THE BOTTOM LINE...AS THE ENTIRE WEATHERENTERPRISE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR DAYS NOW...THIS-IS-AN-EVENT-OF-HISTORICAL-PROPORTIONS!!CATASTROPHIC...CRIPPLING...PARALYZING...CHOOSE YOUR ADJECTIVE. THISIS A VERY VERY BIG DEAL ESPECIALLY FROM METRO ATLANTA EAST ALONG THEI-20 CORRIDOR...GENERALLY ANYWHERE SOUTH OF I-85 AND NORTH OF I-16WHERE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ICE TOTALS ARE FORECAST. STAY SAFE OUTTHERE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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