J.Spin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Same exact thing going on up here... the stars are out but yet it is snowing big fluffy flakes. Very odd to see the sky very clearly and yet have it snowing out and a little more than just flurries. It was still going on when I finally left the house, with another couple of tenths of an inch down on the boards. I set up the web cam to see the extent of any additional accumulations – but with the fluffy nature of the snow I suspect anything will probably sublimate before I get a chance to measure any more of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It was still going on when I finally left the house, with another couple of tenths of an inch down on the boards. I set up the web cam to see the extent of any additional accumulations – but with the fluffy nature of the snow I suspect anything will probably sublimate before I get a chance to measure any more of it. It's really fluffy stuff where each additional flake adds a tenth or two haha. I realized these are the snow globe flakes we've missed out on a bunch this year. Usually January features a lot of fluffy orographic snow (like those stretches where you have measurable for 24 of the 31 days of the month) with just flakes in the air, but not so much this year without any persistent moisture in a NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well here is to hoping for the higher end of the range here for a solid advisory event tomorrow. We had some flurries this morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some very fluffy snow (absolutely massive fluff flakes) still falling, and we may pick up an inch or so. This photo was from over an hour ago, but if you put a ruler in this and look at eye level, there's about 0.5" of snowfall. However, there are still gaps in the snow one can see how low ratio this can be for a half-inch of depth. The flakes are really just large clumps of snow that put down accumulation with each single flake. Still snowing in semi-blue skies with some sun...flakes the size of the palm of your hand at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For the 2/10 system, it is a swing and a miss for 2/10 on the 0z GFS (op run). Good. We got em just where we want 'em. Big big snows incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good. We got em just where we want 'em. Big big snows incoming. LOL yeah. I just realized I was quite tired when writing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's the same stuff I had yesterday for about 90 minutes towards the tail end of the storm. It put down at least 3" in that time and I had at least 9" otg fr a while. When I actually measured about three hours later there had been a period of small, wet grains that packed everything down and the best totals I found were a hair over 6". Some very fluffy snow (absolutely massive fluff flakes) still falling, and we may pick up an inch or so. This photo was from over an hour ago, but if you put a ruler in this and look at eye level, there's about 0.5" of snowfall. However, there are still gaps in the snow one can see how low ratio this can be for a half-inch of depth. The flakes are really just large clumps of snow that put down accumulation with each single flake. fluff.JPG Still snowing in semi-blue skies with some sun...flakes the size of the palm of your hand at times. sun_snow.JPG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ended up with almost an inch of fluff this morning. Probably 40-50:1 ratios haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some very fluffy snow (absolutely massive fluff flakes) still falling, and we may pick up an inch or so. This photo was from over an hour ago, but if you put a ruler in this and look at eye level, there's about 0.5" of snowfall. However, there are still gaps in the snow one can see how low ratio this can be for a half-inch of depth. The flakes are really just large clumps of snow that put down accumulation with each single flake. fluff.JPG I love snow like this. You get a few inches of it and you can see right through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12Z NAM clown map has 15" plus for all of Central and much of NNE except the guys way up north. Overdone but still fun to watch. Love the 6Z GFS weather porn map for the end of the weekend. Something is going to happen but will it be OTS or come up over SE Mass?. Love the active pattern, much better than endless sunny cold day. Enjoy! Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 BTV is 10.1" below normal in snowfall to date. We are looking for this midweek storm to give us a boost, but it looks like it will be sub-warning criteria. Probably a solid advisory snow. Well, since we are likely at another seasonal snowfall nadir today with a storm in the forecast, I ran my numbers as of this morning prior to the unanticipated flakes. At the present time we are definitely at the greatest departure of the season in essentially every way I look at the snowfall in my records. At our location, season snowfall for this date is currently: 32.0 inches below the mean 65.7% of the mean 1.12 standard deviations below the mean in the bottom 13% of seasons I’m not really one to gripe, but for those that do enjoy that sort of thing, that should provide a bit more ammunition if you are discussing deviations from average in areas of the Northern Greens. Based on the way our numbers run in step with the mountains around here, I suspect that at this point the deviations in inches at local ski areas are probably greater than many annual snowfall averages in SNE. Oh and one more item of note, and perhaps the one I find most intriguing… January. Indeed, with 15.8 inches of total snowfall, January 2014 did come in very low. Actually, it was rock bottom low, and interestingly, the next lowest January was actually last January with 21.9 inches of snowfall. And, this past January wasn’t just lower than any January in my records, it was lower than any December, January, or February in my records. Obviously some month has got to hold the low position in the data, but for January to come in well below all those other midwinter months, it suggests that it was quite a special weather pattern. And, the statistics say that it was so, with this January being a whopping 1.86 standard deviations below the midwinter monthly mean of 39.4 inches, putting this January in THE BOTTOM 3% OF ALL MIDWINTER MONTHS according to my data set. So, if anyone wants to complain about this past January’s snowfall in this part of the Northern Greens, know that the statistics say you are well within your rights to do so. January snowfall was even less than November snowfall this season, and that’s got to be pretty rare as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Great stats J.Spin...I knew we were griping for a reason, lol. That was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And November is still the snowiest month of the season so far on Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What are the drawbacks of the BTV WRF? Does it have a harder time with the scale of larger events versus more mesoscale events? The models are throwing out decent QPF- not what everyone was hoping for, but the latest GFS has nudged north a bit with .5" QPF widespread save for the Canadian border- something decent. For Central/Northern Greens, GFS shows .5" through tomorrow night, BTV WRF shows Mansfield-Bolton-Camel's hump around .5-.75", while the NAM is showing .75"+. I've stopped looking at the NAM, really. But it's kinda fun to see the outlier once in a while. As it stands, it seems like the ~.5" QPF (or a bit more) coupled with decent temps should be able to produce a decent snowfall. BTV was a bit bearish with QPF in the morning AFD, noting in one past discussion that orographics are not going to play much of a role due to a lack of low level winds/instability. If anyone knows why is the WRF is throwing out those higher numbers in the higher terrain I'm all ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings now out up to Canada. BTV took amounts up about 2" across the board in NVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ono, the BTV WRF is usually a little moist but it's online with the GFS/ECM right now which both have over 1/2" melted for BTV-MVL and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings now out up to Canada. BTV took amounts up about 2" across the board in NVT. Yep, bumped MPV up to 6.9" from 5.3" earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here is the new BTV map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice, Hopefully it verifies Upgraded to a warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice, Hopefully it verifies Upgraded to a warning now. Now you can stop looking for apartments in Labrador City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Latest GYX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some very fluffy snow (absolutely massive fluff flakes) still falling, and we may pick up an inch or so. This photo was from over an hour ago, but if you put a ruler in this and look at eye level, there's about 0.5" of snowfall. However, there are still gaps in the snow one can see how low ratio this can be for a half-inch of depth. The flakes are really just large clumps of snow that put down accumulation with each single flake. fluff.JPG Nice PF, that’s the same stuff we were getting this morning. We picked up 0.3” before 6:00 A.M., and then another 0.2” by the time I was heading out around 7:00 A.M. As we’ve talked about before, I don’t really know of an objective way to discount the accumulation because there are still gaps in the fallen snow that show the underlying surface. One has to just look across it at eye level and see how high it hits on your ruler. That’s just the nature of this sort of fluff; it’s not going to bolster the snowpack, but it’s an accumulation just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 that's a nice looking map. Looks like no school tomorrow. J.Spin, thanks for posting the numbers on the snow fall to date. The last two years have been pretty paltry for snow down here in the lower Champlain Valley, with 2011 coming in around 35 inches total (with no plow events) and 2012 only marginally better with around 45 inches (only one plow event). This year is only around 25 inches to date (some events were so windblown that it was impossible to measure), so hopefully we'll be adding substantially to that over that next 7 days. The kids will be happy to get a snowday for school tomorrow, as well as all trails open at the Middlebury Snowbowl for the first time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nice PF, that’s the same stuff we were getting this morning. We picked up 0.3” before 6:00 A.M., and then another 0.2” by the time I was heading out around 7:00 A.M. As we’ve talked about before, I don’t really know of an objective way to discount the accumulation because there are still gaps in the fallen snow that show the underlying surface. One has to just look across it at eye level and see how high it hits on your ruler. That’s just the nature of this sort of fluff; it’s not going to bolster the snowpack, but it’s an accumulation just the same.A friend posted this photo from this morning to social media...classic orographic/north country flakes. Look at those crystals...beautiful dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings now out up to Canada. BTV took amounts up about 2" across the board in NVT. Yeah, good news; there are just the Saint Lawrence Valley, the northern Champlain Valley and Coos County showing Winter Weather Advisories, with Winter Storm Warnings everywhere else: Here is the new BTV map That’s certainly showing some decent increases up in the north; our forecast sums to the 5-10” range now, with the hourly weather forecast graph numbers hitting right in the middle of that with 7.3” of snow from 0.58” of liquid. If the mountains could get something in that range or beat it by a bit, it would be a great addition to the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Now you can stop looking for apartments in Labrador City LOL it has to verify first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That’s certainly showing some decent increases up in the north; our forecast sums to the 5-10” range now, with the hourly weather forecast graph numbers hitting right in the middle of that with 7.3” of snow from 0.58” of liquid. If the mountains could get something in that range or beat it by a bit, it would be a great addition to the snowpack. The melted precip is what I"m now more obsessed with, haha. I'm a QPF queen for now because that's what the snowpack really needs....some water weight but not in the form of rain or ice, lol. Its not about getting a big snowfall total and more about getting some weight onto the snow for the off-piste and woods. If we can get near a half inch of melted that would be a pretty big win considering the last 4-6 weeks where any appreciable liquid equiv has come as rain or freezing rain. The snowfalls have been pretty light and fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well, here is my final call for NNE. DDH-VSF-CON: 10-14" RUT-LEB-PYM: 8-12" MPV-1V4-BML: 6-10" St. Albans- Newport-Jackman: 4-8" Hopefully the BTV crew can score in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well, here is my final call for NNE. DDH-VSF-CON: 10-14" RUT-LEB-PYM: 8-12" MPV-1V4-BML: 6-10" St. Albans- Newport-Jackman: 4-8" Hopefully the BTV crew can score in this one. I agree mostly with your forecast but think it'll be more latitude oriented...ie like SLK may get the same as 1V4. With the exception of the northern CPV which should see dry air at the SFC funnel down in light northerly flow. The track looks a little different than the one earlier in the season that sort of took a more SW-NE line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Solid. This would go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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