PWMan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, I guess the question then is how far north does that make it and where is the cut-off. There should be subsidence north of that in a pretty sharp gradient. We'll probably see the snow totals under played for someone but then likewise north of that band will be over-played. This week could put me officially over the edge, with today's system coming north just enough to hit SNE and the next system slipping south so they jackpot. I have to say that the chorus of "Don't worry, fronto will save NNE" isn't as comforting as it would have been prior to the last big system which buried SNE and completely whiffed up here. Before that one we were told not to worry about modeled QPF trends. And while there'd been a steady SWFE drumbeat on the midweek system, it's now looking more and more like a Miller B that's racing off to our south. I'm not saying that we'll be shut out this time, but it is discouraging to once again be relegated to the fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I noticed something strange yesterday. Decided to ski Wildcat. Left my house in Bartlett with 1-2 in of fresh snow, and assumed that Wildcat, being higher in elevation and further north, would have gotten a similar or possibly greater amount. Instead, it seems that the Pinkham notch area got rain or wet snow. How is that possible??? Is some strange microclimate issue at play? Just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I noticed something strange yesterday. Decided to ski Wildcat. Left my house in Bartlett with 1-2 in of fresh snow, and assumed that Wildcat, being higher in elevation and further north, would have gotten a similar or possibly greater amount. Instead, it seems that the Pinkham notch area got rain or wet snow. How is that possible??? Is some strange microclimate issue at play? Just curious... It was probably precipitation intensity driven? How many miles away is Bartlett from Pinkham? You may have just gotten into a better band or something at your house. Very similar to the system in December when S.VT up to C.NH and S.ME had like 6-8" of heavy wet snow, while it rained to the summits up here in northern VT. The snow was all intensity and banding related and if you just had prolonged light precip, it was rain no matter the elevation or latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I would go 2-4" for BTV as well at most. The Euro has gone south with Sun/Mon so it may be time to think of warming the bath water . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It was probably precipitation intensity driven? How many miles away is Bartlett from Pinkham? You may have just gotten into a better band or something at your house. Very similar to the system in December when S.VT up to C.NH and S.ME had like 6-8" of heavy wet snow, while it rained to the summits up here in northern VT. The snow was all intensity and banding related and if you just had prolonged light precip, it was rain no matter the elevation or latitude. Might be... it's 15 miles, going from 800 feet in Bartlett (South of Mt Washington) to about 2000 ft at the base at Wildcat (East of Mt Washington). It was definitely very strange! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z gfs now under 0.30" qpf for AUG/RUM/WVL for midweek. Still time for movement but the trend is toward WWA, at best. The late weekend storm is also undergoing qpf reduction run by run. Nice run for my old NNJ homeland, though - 3 events for 25-30" verbatim (including the one in progress there.) lol GFS is also the model with the least qpf and a shade south of the other guidance, Euro has been stead fast and has over .50" i think qpf here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here lets pick up the spirits a bit and give some of you something to at least look at for now, And lol at some writing off the storm for next Monday 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here lets pick up the spirits a bit and give some of you something to at least look at for now, And lol at some writing off the storm for next Monday 7 days out Lines up with the BTV map I posted above. I'm not really all that down. I'd like to see this one come in at the top end of my forecasted range 6" or 8" and then get another one of at least the same. I don't need the big totals as long as I can a bit of snowpack built up, I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lines up with the BTV map I posted above. I'm not really all that down. I'd like to see this one come in at the top end of my forecasted range 6" or 8" and then get another one of at least the same. I don't need the big totals as long as I can a bit of snowpack built up, I'll be happy. Haha, well yeah that would of course work, those are huge totals for this year. 6-8" would be the biggest single day snowfall event of the season for me, and then if we got another one of at least that much after it, that would be epic for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here is the BTV snowfall map for Wednesday. Sort of meh looking but I will take what I can get at this point. I’ve added this afternoon’s updated advisories and projected accumulations maps from BTV below – Our current point forecast calls for accumulations in the 3 to 5 inch range, which could make it the largest event of this year depending on where it falls in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I’ve added this afternoon’s updated advisories and projected accumulations maps from BTV below – Our current point forecast calls for accumulations in the 3 to 5 inch range, which could make it the largest event of this year depending on where it falls in that range. My P&C calls for 4"-8" from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Like I said, I'll take it and be happy in this winter of my discontent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lines up with the BTV map I posted above. I'm not really all that down. I'd like to see this one come in at the top end of my forecasted range 6" or 8" and then get another one of at least the same. I don't need the big totals as long as I can a bit of snowpack built up, I'll be happy. Same don't need to jack, Just enough to ride on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Despite my whining earlier I'll gladly take whatever we can get out of this (as if I have a choice!). Way too much bare ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 MBY is in the middle of the 4-6" color - would be the first event to reach advisory level (for snow, anyway) since 2013. All snow is good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I’ve added this afternoon’s updated advisories and projected accumulations maps from BTV below – Our current point forecast calls for accumulations in the 3 to 5 inch range, which could make it the largest event of this year depending on where it falls in that range. The new forecast map brings the 6-8 inch band into Addison County, and introduces a higher 10-14 range into southern Vermont. Earlier, I named it a borderline plow event. If this verifies or pulls even further north, this is a definitive plow event for Addison County, and a bonifide school closure (compared to when schools closed on Thursday morning ahead of a forecasted 4-8" event over a 48 hour period, yeesh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yep looks like a 2-4 snoozer for BTV. We still can't buy a warning level event. Ahh well it is better than none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yep looks like a 2-4 snoozer for BTV. We still can't buy a warning level event. Ahh well it is better than none. Big, big winter incoming 2014-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's gon' snow, dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's gon' snow, dudes. Was it over when the Germans boned Pearl Harbor?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Where has ekuasepinniW been? Cant remember the last time I saw a post from him. Just was looking at the GYX snow map and saw the lakes region and started to wonder. Will be nice to get some snow on top of the stuff that used to be snow that's been on the ground since early Dec. Feels cold out tonight after the last few nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was wondering the same thing about eek. Hope all is well with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was wondering the same thing about eek. Hope all is well with him. He's probably living it up in Key West with 70 degree dews, just checked, dew of 73 there right now. Could not imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Eek is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For the 2/10 system, it is a swing and a miss for 2/10 on the 0z GFS (op run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Slight bump north in moisture with the 00z GFS/NAM....gets 1/2" melted closer to the BTV-1V4 axis. Looks like the sort of deformation area has increased in strength. Would love to get to 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was it over when the Germans boned Pearl Harbor?! LOL, of course not! This thread seemed like Delta House after getting put on double secret probation. I was wondereing about eek too. Tell him we say hi, Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Event totals: 0.3” Snow/Trace L.E. When I went out back to confirm the snow depth at the stake this morning, I was greeted by some surprise snowfall. It was actually partly cloudy out, but the air was filled with snow globe flakes floating down in that ever so slow and leisurely way they do. Checking the board revealed 0.3” of fluff, but it contained less than 0.01” of liquid, so it will go down as a trace. The snow is still going, with a similar tenth of an inch down at least – there’s not much mention of the event in the BTV NWS discussion, but it sounds like it’s from the low cloud deck that is hanging out in the Champlain Valley area spilling over toward us, because indeed the clear sky and stars that I see are off to the east, and overhead and to the west is dark: FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING...MUCH OF THE CVLY AND POINTS WEST INTO THE ST LAW VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MEANDERING LOW CLD DECK THAT HAS BEEN OVER AREA THRU THE NIGHT. SLOW DISSIPATION OF THESE CLDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PSUNNY/MSUNNY CONDITIONS. SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH NO ACCUM POTENTIAL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THRU MID MORNING. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Sky: Light Snow/Flurries (5-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Event totals: 0.3” Snow/Trace L.E. When I went out back to confirm the snow depth at the stake this morning, I was greeted by some surprise snowfall. It was actually partly cloudy out, but the air was filled with snow globe flakes floating down in that ever so slow and leisurely way they do. Checking the board revealed 0.3” of fluff, but it contained less than 0.01” of liquid, so it will go down as a trace. The snow is still going, with a similar tenth of an inch down at least – there’s not much mention of the event in the BTV NWS discussion, but it sounds like it’s from the low cloud deck that is hanging out in the Champlain Valley area spilling over toward us, because indeed the clear sky and stars that I see are off to the east, and overhead and to the west is dark: FOR A PORTION OF THE MORNING...MUCH OF THE CVLY AND POINTS WEST INTO THE ST LAW VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MEANDERING LOW CLD DECK THAT HAS BEEN OVER AREA THRU THE NIGHT. SLOW DISSIPATION OF THESE CLDS WILL GIVE WAY TO PSUNNY/MSUNNY CONDITIONS. SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH NO ACCUM POTENTIAL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA THRU MID MORNING. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: Trace Sky: Light Snow/Flurries (5-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0 inches Same exact thing going on up here... the stars are out but yet it is snowing big fluffy flakes. Very odd to see the sky very clearly and yet have it snowing out and a little more than just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I’ve added the latest BTV NWS advisories and projected accumulations maps below – we’re actually under a Winter Storm Warning here in Washington County, although with our point forecast suggesting something in the 4-6” range, I assume it’s more to cover southern areas of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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