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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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Well, another below zero morning here:  currently -9.

 

I've recorded 17 below zero minima for the month so far including a run of nine in a row now.  A couple of those (for the whole month) though were of the sneaky 7:01 am type minima.

 

15 negatives so far this month, plus one morning right at zero, and no cheapies as my obs time is 9 PM.  It was -10 and overcast (another storm OTS) at 6:30 this morning.  Without the clouds I might've seen -20, as it was down around -15 at 2:30 last night.

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12Z GFS looks good for next week's storm. Hopefully it holds. We will see if the Euro changes its tune.

All eye fodder at this point. I'm more interested in the weekend for sneaky advisory level snows. GFS came in with 0.25-0.5", and NAM at 84 was looking pretty juicy with overrunning. GGEM also in the 0.25-0.5" range on the 12z run. Will see what the ECM does with it.

Maybe we can thread the needle on that one.

GGEM has a CNE/SNE bomb for next week.

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34.2" at BTV to date which is around 82% of normal to date. Departure: -.7.5" (worst of the season so far I think).

 

This will change very shortly and certainly by the end of the winter, but I do find it staggering that my parents down in coastal Jersey have more snowfall to date at 37"...Their avg season is about 25".

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It is looking more likely next week's event will be tainted:

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW
FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH WSW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH
TRACK OF LOW. LOW WILL TRACK ALONG OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
SLOWLY EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER IN THE FORECAST.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN THERE MAY BE A BIT OF WARM AIR CAUSING A MIX OF
PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SYSTEM WILL END WITH SNOW AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.

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Elk Mountain, NC (Sugar Mountain Ski Resort) has a bigger depth than Mount Mansfield.

 

http://www.skisugar.com/conditions/

 

lol at 56-114".... I wonder how much snow is on the ground in the woods ;)

 

But honestly, we could say we have those depths (we do in places have over 10-15 feet on certain runs), but that's like laughable, haha.  I was looking at the snowmaking depths today when I was skiing around...there's a lot of places that are now more than fine for the spring season.  We'll be dozing it off the trails probably in May in spots, haha.

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It is looking more likely next week's event will be tainted:

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND

AWAY FROM OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW

FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FROPA. PARTIAL CLEARING IS

EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED

WITH WSW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THAT TIME. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY

THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME WITH

TRACK OF LOW. LOW WILL TRACK ALONG OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY

NIGHT...THEN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN

SLOWLY EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER IN THE FORECAST.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW TUESDAY

NIGHT...THEN THERE MAY BE A BIT OF WARM AIR CAUSING A MIX OF

PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY...THEN THE SYSTEM WILL END WITH SNOW AGAIN ON

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT

THIS TIME.

 

I don't know, I could see it shifting south again a bit... but then again, looking at the H5 plots, the vort max is wayyyy west of us, so hopefully it doesn't continue to wrap up over the next 5 days and keep moving north.  I just feel the progressive pattern and a little more oomph from the Pacific Jet may be able to keep it further south and zonal. 

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I saw that PF had posted the potential snowfall map in the thread about the weekend event, but I also think there should be a copy here in the NNE thread as well.

 

31JAN14A.jpg

 

The current point forecast for our area totals up somewhere in the 2-5” range with a sum of ~3.4” on the hourly weather forecast graph.  It looks like 1-3” is the call for the main Saturday night chunk of precipitation, but marginal temperatures could dictate how that goes.

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PF/J.Spin-

 

do you guys have any beta on current depths on the east and west slopes around 1500'-2500'? I was thinking about if/when to head to some backcountry spots for some hiking and turns- but I've got a feeling that it'll be pretty rough on the runout and I'm not about to trash new skis.

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PF/J.Spin-

do you guys have any beta on current depths on the east and west slopes around 1500'-2500'? I was thinking about if/when to head to some backcountry spots for some hiking and turns- but I've got a feeling that it'll be pretty rough on the runout and I'm not about to trash new skis.

Not even close...12" at 1,500ft on this side, but there's a lot of stuff poking out. No one is in the woods on the east side below 2,500ft.

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Not even close...12" at 1,500ft on this side, but there's a lot of stuff poking out. No one is in the woods on the east side below 2,500ft.

 

That's what I was figuring.  We need a solid, dense foot+ down in the valleys.  Hopefully that's not too far off.

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