eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yesterday's trace at BTV has allowed the departure to return to -6". Tomorrow's event looks to be a similar setup ahead of another week of dry weather. The Euro is a little more robust with this one, which could be good news for the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Another wasted weekend of no riding, .5" here, .5" their not going to cut ittrail reports looked decent in some areas. County is probably mint now.upcoming week looks dry. Don't care,going riding somewhere.reciprocity weekend coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 trail reports looked decent in some areas. County is probably mint now.upcoming week looks dry. Don't care,going riding somewhere.reciprocity weekend coming up County should be mint after yesterday and tomorrow, The rich will be getting richer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 trail reports looked decent in some areas. County is probably mint now.upcoming week looks dry. Don't care,going riding somewhere.reciprocity weekend coming up County should be mint after yesterday and tomorrow, The rich will be getting richer heading to caribou end of Feb for 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 28094G104MPH (peak wind 118 MPH) -22 giving us a wind chill of -71 at MWN. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 28094G104MPH (peak wind 118 MPH) -22 giving us a wind chill of -71 at MWN. Not bad. LOL yeah whiteface in the Adirondacks reported a -61F windchill this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Really cheap midnightish high of 20F. Currently 5.8/-11.0Guess it wasn't too "cheap" after all. Up to 16.4F.I thought we'd have a cooler midday given the strong CAA overnight and this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well I am prepared for more downsloping tomorrow. Hopefully things look up for when I return from my little trip next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I don't get it. When I read the forecast this morning, BTV said a 50% chance of snow tonight and tomorrow. So, I think to myself, looks like this second clipper isn't going to produce. Then, with the updated afternoon package, suddenly it's a trace-2" tonight and a total through tomorrow night of 4" to 6". Now, I understand the higher totals are for the higher elevations mostly west of here closer to the spine, but what changed? I didn't see a big difference on the 12z runs and the new BTV afternoon discussion reads like this was the idea all along. I also don't see a snow map like they issued for the clipper yesterday. I'm not complaining, mind you...I just don't get it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 my point click is for 1-3 tonight and 3-5 tomorrow. I don't think I will be seeing 4-8 somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My point and click was less than 1/2" and now is 1-3". If it is similar to last time I am more inclined to take the low end, unless we luck out with a squall with the front itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 My point and click was less than 1/2" and now is 1-3". If it is similar to last time I am more inclined to take the low end, unless we luck out with a squall with the front itself. BTV had some pretty aggressive snow totals from what I could see. I'm inclined to agree for the higher elevations, not so much for the valleys. I kind of stuck close to totals similar to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well today did not suck. The snow-boards had totals of 6-7" but it skied a lot deeper than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 BTV had some pretty aggressive snow totals from what I could see. I'm inclined to agree for the higher elevations, not so much for the valleys. I kind of stuck close to totals similar to last night. Yeah we were blanked until a tenth or two fell with a snow shower after midnight and that was about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mansfield stake went up 11" in the past two days, on 5.5" of snow. With the high winds, there may be some drifting affecting that depth increase, but the co-op was a little low by a couple inches, too. Now up to 42" depth though which crests the 40-inch woods rule for the higher elevations. Its pretty fluffy on the top 15" or so (as you can see by the pictures) but we are getting close to being able to go in the woods for more than a turn or two on the side. Still pretty low tide below 2,500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 12z Euro would be what we want for the 4th. Obviously chasing each run right now is not advisable this far out, but at least there is a ray of hope there. As for the latest GFS it now keeps everything to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 12z Euro would be what we want for the 4th. Obviously chasing each run right now is not advisable this far out, but at least there is a ray of hope there. As for the latest GFS it now keeps everything to the south. The ECMWF ensembles have a strong signal for this one, Even the 0z ensemble was south of the op run and would keep us frozen up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Geeens have now had two events in a row where they performed normally or better than forecast (after duffing for a month straight)...you can tell BTV has picked up on that. It's starting to get back to the normal clipper program of 3-6" with locally higher amounts, so hopefully this trend continues. "Light snows develops over the area after midnight with accumulations by Monday morning generally a dusting to 2 inches. Expect the lowest amounts in the Champlain Valley where a modest 925-850mb south/southwesterly jet of 30-45kts will provide some shadowing...while higher elevations especially along the northern Green Mountain spine above 1500ft will see the greatest amounts. With increasing clouds and winds overnight...early evening lows are expected from -5f to +15f north to south before warming into the teens to lower 20s by sunrise Monday. && Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/... as of 324 PM EST Sunday...aforementioned clipper system continues to track northwest of the region Monday with the attending Arctic front prognosticated to traverse the area from west to east through the day. A strong thermal gradient along the front will once again enhance the potential for snow squalls...mainly across northern New York as well as into the northern greens of Vermont where a quick 2-3" is possible. Much like the last clipper...also expect to see some isolated higher snow amounts along the northern Green Mountain spine and downwind into portions of central and northeast Vermont. Isolated storm totals of 4-6" will be possible across these areas though mainly above 1500ft." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The ECMWF ensembles have a strong signal for this one, Even the 0z ensemble was south of the op run and would keep us frozen up here I think Dendrite brought up a good point about the ensembles timing difference washing out some of the warmer individual solutions...can anyone see the individual members to get a feel for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think Dendrite brought up a good point about the ensembles timing difference washing out some of the warmer individual solutions...can anyone see the individual members to get a feel for it? I can't see the individuals unfortunately, And i only have the regional view as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 There's probably a dozen warm members that get CON above 0C at H85. Half of those get 2m above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think Dendrite brought up a good point about the ensembles timing difference washing out some of the warmer individual solutions...can anyone see the individual members to get a feel for it? You are gettin desperate for your first warning event. Individual ens memebers for a day 9 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just realized I didn't post my total this morning: 2.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just realized I didn't post my total this morning: 2.4" Was that the event total for you?! I had an extra 2" and there's still an even 4.0" on the uncleared half of my snowboard, even with settling. That would be a decent difference between the two of us, considering the event last week we were identical at 6.5". There was a 5.8" report out of Moscow, last night...wonder if there was a sharp gradient in town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You are gettin desperate for your first warning event. Individual ens memebers for a day 9 event. Haha nahhh but it's all we've got to talk about as far as larger storms at this point...it's why the Feb thread is getting traffic. I was more curious about the comment Dendrite brought up about the mean washing out the individual members warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You are gettin desperate for your first warning event. Individual ens memebers for a day 9 event. He may not be, but I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Got to admit, I'm a little disappointed, not even a coating from WAA. Maybe some a little later? Edit: Well, my P&C has the old heavy snow icon, haven't seen much of that this year. It is calling for 3"-5" mainly before 3:00 pm so I hope that was just being impatient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Got to admit, I'm a little disappointed, not even a coating from WAA. Maybe some a little later? Edit: Well, my P&C has the old heavy snow icon, haven't seen much of that this year. It is calling for 3"-5" mainly before 3:00 pm so I hope that was just being impatient. I looked at my forecast when you mentioned the “heavy snow” icon, and indeed we’ve got that as well, with 3-7” in the point and click, and 4.4” on the associated hourly weather forecast graph. Today Occasional snow showers, mainly before 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 12 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -5. South wind 9 to 18 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. That would require some vigorous snowfall, but the synopsis on the forecast discussion is at least in the same ballpark with 3 to 5 in the higher terrain. It’s always a question of how much of that makes it down to the lower elevations along the spine. Further down in the discussion, they mention some 1”/hr snowfall rates upstream in Western New York, which is presumably what it would take to get such accumulations AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 702 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS AND 20S TODAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS. A CHILL DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK WINDS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. Snow was actually starting up at the house around 7:00 A.M. – I’ve also cleared the snow off the back deck last night, so the web cam with the reference measurement blocks is reset for anyone monitoring the snowfall in the Waterbury area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Light snow to rain.only in this winter can we have days of arctic air be replaced by one 40f day and precipitation that falls as liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As expected we are being downsloped to death here with not a flake so far. Whatever we get will likely be with the front itself (maybe a quick dusting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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