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NNE Winter Part 3


mreaves

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Zilcho here in Colchester, snowing at maybe 8 flakes per hour haha

 

Its weird because it doesn't seem like its snowing that hard (but it is adding up to some degree) but the visibility is way down.  I see MPV hasn't gone above 1/2sm in a couple hours and we've been the same up here at the mountain...its a steady 1/4-1/2sm snow of little flakes.  I see even MVL is now down to 3/4sm so its saturating in the valley. 

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Its weird because it doesn't seem like its snowing that hard (but it is adding up to some degree) but the visibility is way down.  I see MPV hasn't gone above 1/2sm in a couple hours and we've been the same up here at the mountain...its a steady 1/4-1/2sm snow of little flakes.  I see even MVL is now down to 3/4sm so its saturating in the valley.

 

Agreed, the snowfall rate is very deceptive, but it seems to keep chugging along at about ½” per hour.  Perhaps it’s the small flakes (1-2 mm diameters here) that we’re not as used to seeing relativel to bigger upslope dendrites.

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While I had a break I drove over to the Richmond exit and the visibility crashed to 1/2 mile or so. I am in Williston at my parent's to do laundry and the vis is under a mile here (no washer and drier at the apartment).

 

Visibilities have been quite low, even though the snowfall isn't all that excessive.

 

Radar shows the Lake Champlain downslope and then upslope again into the mountains.  Obviously judging by obs elsewhere around VT and MPV, the snow is extending eastward but the beam is just getting too high to see it.

 

 

Jan25.gif

 

Jan25c.gif

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Visibilities have been quite low, even though the snowfall isn't all that excessive.

 

Radar shows the Lake Champlain downslope and then upslope again into the mountains.  Obviously judging by obs elsewhere around VT and MPV, the snow is extending eastward but the beam is just getting too high to see it.

 

 

Jan25.gif

 

Jan25c.gif

 

Yeah it appears Burlington Downtown/Winooski/Colchester may get entirely blanked until maybe a passing snow shower with the front itself.

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A little less than Cardinal Winds but it has been pretty windy at times and my snowboard is blown clear so measuring there wouldn't do much good. Could be anywhere between .25 and an inch. Glad I waited until today to change the tire on my snowmobile trailer, 19F felt downright balmy!

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Wow, Smuggs just came in with 4-6" of snow today on the other side.
 

Jay Peak with 5-7", but they reported 3-4" as of 11am... but Smuggs didn't show any snowfall until 4pm when they went to 4-6". 

 

Meanwhile Bolton reported 1" at 4pm. 

 

Very interesting ski area reports this afternoon, haha.

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It looks like in the CPV it will be another downslope screw job with similar wind directions, so not expecting much. Hopefully February delivers. It is good to see the ski areas getting something. Unfortunately I won't go tomorrow as planned with brutal wind chills anticipated.

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Event totals: 1.8” Snow/0.13” L.E.

 

I cleared the boards and ran an analysis on the snow at 2:00 P.M. – at 7.2% H2O, the accumulation was actually loftier than I would have thought with the small flakes.  We headed up to the mountain after that, and I’d say there was probably 2-4” new by the time we got there – I suspect they’ll update their most recent 1” report by tomorrow.  It was definitely tricky driving coming down the Bolton Valley Access Road, and Route 2 through Bolton Flats toward Waterbury was filled with quite a good shot of snow as well – I’m not sure it’s been plowed much.  As of 5:00 P.M. there’s another 1.7” of snow down here on the snowboard, and I’ll run an analysis on that later this evening.  The flake size has definitely increased as of late, so the next round of snowfall might come in drier.  I doesn’t look like there will be any problem reaching the 2-5” range in the BTV NWS forecast, since there’s 3.5” down already.  It’s interesting to note that this is now the largest storm of the month for our location.

 

Details from the 2:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.13 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 13.8

Snow Density: 7.2% H2O

Temperature: 20.5 F

Sky: Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

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Nothing in Burlington today, really.  Definitely a downslope event.  The sky looked ready to go at times, but the 'dacks foothills came in and out of view as flurries came and went in and around Burlington.  It seemed we never really had a chance today in the valley. It's weird to convince friends  that it's snowing in the mountains, that there is  a snowstorm occurring- just not here in the Valley. It happens. But good reporting by the resorts and webcams showing the snow helps a lot. 

 

The BTV forecast is a bit bullish on the point forecast with 3-5" possible overnight for higher terrain around Smuggs/Mansfield.  In any event, it seems the forecast busted low for the Champlain Valley and is already above the high-end forecasted accumulations for the mountains.  I would have loved an inch or so of mood flakes, but I'd rather see near half-foot in the mountains on the ground, and potential for another several inches tonight.  

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I am up to 4.2" so far as of 8pm. Snowfall has slowed to 1/3rd of an inch per hour or so.

Lamoille County totals that are now several hours old. No surprise the coop is low, high winds today probably made it difficult to catch in the can.

..LAMOILLE COUNTY...

JEFFERSONVILLE 6.0 453 PM 1/25 1500 FEET

JOHNSON 4.0 453 PM 1/25 PUBLIC

STOWE 3.5 555 PM 1/25 PUBLIC

2 SSW JEFFERSONVILLE 3.5 458 PM 1/25 PUBLIC

MOUNT MANSFIELD 2.6 400 PM 1/25 CO-OP OBSERVER

1 SSE SMUGGLERS NOTC 2.5 300 PM 1/25 STOWE MOUNTAIN RESORT

HYDE PARK 2.0 442 PM 1/25 PUBLIC

MORRISVILLE 1.5 537 PM 1/25 PUBLIC

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Nothing in Burlington today, really.  Definitely a downslope event.  The sky looked ready to go at times, but the 'dacks foothills came in and out of view as flurries came and went in and around Burlington.  It seemed we never really had a chance today in the valley. It's weird to convince friends  that it's snowing in the mountains, that there is  a snowstorm occurring- just not here in the Valley. It happens. But good reporting by the resorts and webcams showing the snow helps a lot. 

 

The BTV forecast is a bit bullish on the point forecast with 3-5" possible overnight for higher terrain around Smuggs/Mansfield.  In any event, it seems the forecast busted low for the Champlain Valley and is already above the high-end forecasted accumulations for the mountains.  I would have loved an inch or so of mood flakes, but I'd rather see near half-foot in the mountains on the ground, and potential for another several inches tonight.  

 

It is going to be a tough stretch in the CPV. If the next clipper doesn't produce due to downsloping there isn't much ahead for awhile. Hopefully there will be something with the front itself tonight. I am glad the mountains are getting some though for the ski conditions. I only wish the conditions on the summits were going to be much less harsh tomorrow.

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Nice JSpin...same amount here, almost 3.5" now and almost an inch in the past hour.

It is dumping big fat flakes...noticeable different from a couple hours ago. This is more upslope style flakes.

 

As of 9pm I have 2" even for the day.  Still coming down, though very light.  Flakes still small, though. No fatties this far east.

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Mansfield stake is reporting in at 36", which is getting very close to the 40" mark.  But given recent observations in and about the 1800- 2000' level, the backcountry is far from ready.  Maybe 2500-3000'+ elevations are good, but one must still contend with some run-outs, which needs another foot or two to be safe.  There's still not much of a base. A nor'easter/synoptic foot would really be the game changer- though a bunch of these clippers will make up the difference given enough time.  

 

Maybe that's what we're looking at- these over performing clippers for now.  We're looking at 6"+ at elevation of moderate fluff.  That works.  Nickel/Dime, repeat.  Let the good times roll.

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Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.30” L.E.

 

I cleared the snowboard at 10:00 P.M. and there was an additional 2.0” of snow on it; no precipitation was falling and I could even see some stars in the sky.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.17 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.8

Snow Density: 8.5% H2O

Temperature: 19.2 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

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Looks like 4.4" total at home. First board clearing was 2.0" yesterday late afternoon, and this morning 2.4". The uptick in flake size certainly helped yesterday evening.

I see on the PNS that there was a report from Moscow (which is in the town of Stowe) of 5.8" so someone just south of here must've gotten it a bit harder than here.

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Event totals: 3.9” Snow/0.30” L.E.
 
There was a final 0.1” of snow on the board this morning to finish off the event.
 
Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:
 
New Snow: 0.1 inches
New Liquid: Trace
Temperature: -3.1 F
Sky: Clear
Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches
 
With this storm complete, I added the north to south listing of storm totals I’ve seen from the Vermont ski areas below.  It looks like the storm wasn’t focused on just the northern areas, with another peak in accumulations around Killington, and decent numbers all the way south to Mount Snow.  Being near the spine of the Greens may have been important for this event, as off to the east, Burke was the odd man out, reporting just an inch of new snow.
 
Jay Peak: 10”
Burke: 1”
Smuggler’s Notch: 8”
Stowe: 7”
Bolton Valley: 6”
Mad River Glen: 5”
Sugarbush: 5”
Middlebury: 5”
Pico: 10”
Killington: 10”
Okemo: 5”
Bromley: 6”
Magic Mountain: 4”
Stratton: 6”
Mount Snow: 5”

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Up to 4.1" - for January.  I've had 13 days with at snowflakes this month and 7 with measurable.  Largest calendar-day accum was 1.1" on the 3rd; storm total was 1.9", which looks to finish as the month's biggest.  Temp is at -2.8 thru yesterday and will probably finish between 3 and 4F below my avg, while total precip is 130% of my avg for the full month.  Different...

 

Edit:  My cheap high came at my 9 PM obs time, with 21.  Down to about 2 at present.

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