ApacheTrout Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 -10F here in Orwell. Pretty darn cold. And a nasty stiff breeze. Has anyone noticed the remarkable departures from normal at BTV since November 1? Of the 82 days, 38 have double digit departures (21 negative and 17 positive). That's nearly half the days! Of those, 11 days of departure were in the + 20F range, and it looks like we'll be adding another four to five days before the month is over. Wow. Talk about a highly amplified pattern. This sure strikes me as extremely rare, but I don't have access to the daily data for the past sixty years to know if it's, instead, along the lines of an infrequent to unusual occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I was looking at the BTV NWS discussion to see how things were looking for the potential system this weekend, and they actually speak of two possible events – a clipper, and then a frontal boundary. If it was anything like this past weekend it could be good for the mountains: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROF WL CONT ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...RESULTING IN BLW NORMAL TEMPS AND SEVERAL CHCS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. OVERALL...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH INDIVIDUAL TRACK/TIMING OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TWD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW FIRST CLIPPER APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH 980MB LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ON SATURDAY. GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH WL BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM POTENT 5H VORT...AND SOME ENHANCED LVLL FORCING FROM 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. EXPECT SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV...PER LLVL JET PROFILE AND ASSOCIATED MINIMAL IN THE QPF FIELDS. EARLY INDICATIONS FOR SNOWFALL WOULD SUPPORT 2 TO 6 INCHES DACKS/NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS TO DUSTING TO 3 INCHES SLV/CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...GIVEN COLD THERMAL PROFILES EXPECT A HIGH FLUFF FACTOR 20 OR 30 TO 1. A SHARP ACRTIC BOUNDARY SWINGS ACRS OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE...GOOD RIBBON OF 925MB FGEN FORCING...AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT...WL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WL MENTION HIGH CHC TO CAT POPS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT TO COVER BOTH SYSTEMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I read that this morning. It was definitely encouraging. My car had a tough time cranking up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 I read that this morning. It was definitely encouraging. My car had a tough time cranking up this morning. At only -12°? You need to get that thing Vermonterized! Seriously though, cars and such handle this type of weather so much better today than when I was growing up. I can't remember the last car I had that I needed a block heater. Seems like 25-30 years ago we would have a much harder time getting cars to start in the cold, pipes freezing and other issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 -23F for the low here... brrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 -23F for the low here... brrrrr. That will put some hair on your ass Anyway back in my former home of NC there was a plume of lake effect off Kerr Lake this morning, which is near the VA border. A very rare event. Just thought that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I was looking at the BTV NWS discussion to see how things were looking for the potential system this weekend, and they actually speak of two possible events – a clipper, and then a frontal boundary. If it was anything like this past weekend it could be good for the mountains: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROF WL CONT ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7...RESULTING IN BLW NORMAL TEMPS AND SEVERAL CHCS FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. OVERALL...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH INDIVIDUAL TRACK/TIMING OF CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY TWD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW FIRST CLIPPER APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH 980MB LOW PRES TRACKING TO OUR NORTH. THIS WL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ON SATURDAY. GOOD 850 TO 500MB RH WL BE PRESENT...ALONG WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM POTENT 5H VORT...AND SOME ENHANCED LVLL FORCING FROM 925MB TO 850MB JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. EXPECT SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV...PER LLVL JET PROFILE AND ASSOCIATED MINIMAL IN THE QPF FIELDS. EARLY INDICATIONS FOR SNOWFALL WOULD SUPPORT 2 TO 6 INCHES DACKS/NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS TO DUSTING TO 3 INCHES SLV/CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS. ALSO...GIVEN COLD THERMAL PROFILES EXPECT A HIGH FLUFF FACTOR 20 OR 30 TO 1. A SHARP ACRTIC BOUNDARY SWINGS ACRS OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE...GOOD RIBBON OF 925MB FGEN FORCING...AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT...WL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO 4 OR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WL MENTION HIGH CHC TO CAT POPS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT TO COVER BOTH SYSTEMS. It looks very similar to what happened just a few days ago. The frontal passage looks pretty sharp right now... that could blast the mountains for a few hours. Hopefully it happens like it did the other time... I love when its just ripping at 4-6am when I'm driving to work and getting stuff ready for the day. Being all alone for an hour and a half in the Mtn Ops Center, looking over weather data, listening to the roof creak in strong NW winds, as it just rips heavy snow, chatting with the groomers and snowmakers over the radio. There's just something about being up at the mountains in the dark while its snowing and storming, especially when its not doing much in town or Burlington...no one has any idea a localized blizzard is occurring a few miles away, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What we do well up here is cold... look at some of these temps. And I thought the -23F here was cold...looks like similar elevation to here near that 700-900ft range on the west slope got down to -25F over in West Bolton, and then further north on the west slope in Franklin County put up some -28F and -29F readings. But holy crap on the Saint Lawrence Valley...they even out-did the SLK/Lake Placid area. Gouveneur co-op taking it home at -35F! NORTHERN NEW YORK GOUVERNEUR COOP -35 OGDENSBERG AIRPORT ASOS -33 GOUVERNEUR -31 BRASHER FALLS RAWS -30 MASSENA RICHARDS FIELD ASOS -30 SARANAC LAKE / ADIRONDACK ARPT ASOS -30 WANAKENA RNGR SCHOOL COOP -30 LAKE PLACID -29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 What we do well up here is cold... look at some of these temps. And I thought the -23F here was cold...looks like similar elevation to here near that 700-900ft range on the west slope got down to -25F over in West Bolton, and then further north on the west slope in Franklin County put up some -28F and -29F readings. But holy crap on the Saint Lawrence Valley...they even out-did the SLK/Lake Placid area. Gouveneur co-op taking it home at -35F! NORTHERN NEW YORK GOUVERNEUR COOP -35 OGDENSBERG AIRPORT ASOS -33 GOUVERNEUR -31 BRASHER FALLS RAWS -30 MASSENA RICHARDS FIELD ASOS -30 SARANAC LAKE / ADIRONDACK ARPT ASOS -30 WANAKENA RNGR SCHOOL COOP -30 LAKE PLACID -29 Interesting how it the coldest of the cold was held to the west while normal cod spots like Island Pond "only" got down to -19° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Interesting how it the coldest of the cold was held to the west while normal cod spots like Island Pond "only" got down to -19° It was a function of the storm to the SE... probably some wind or high clouds or something. They'll bottom out tonight for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Really liking the direction February may be headed for NNE...that trough axis looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Really liking the direction February may be headed for NNE...that trough axis looks pretty good. I do as well, Maybe we start to cash after being in a stall pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Well, its confirmed. This snow drought is my fault. back home in ny yesterday, I was just north of the banding and only got 4" while 5 miles south got a foot. but dont worry, I'm leaving saturday for BC, so its sure to start snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 50 or so of these Cedar Waxwing birds were going to town eating the berries off of my Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Snowmaking is cool at -15F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Nice pic, PF. What exactly do you do at Stowe? You head of mountain operations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 ART put up a -37F this morning...insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Nice pic, PF. What exactly do you do at Stowe? You head of mountain operations? Haha I wish... no I've got a bunch of titles, snow reporter/weather observer/operations communication, social media supervisor, staff forecaster, staff photographer. It's a hybrid of marketing and mountain operations, though I work out of the Mtn Ops Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What's the thinking for the White Mountains on Saturday? GYX seems thoroughly unenthusiastic... "THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SQUALLS." Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Only one reading above zero at MPV since 11:00 pm Monday. Got to 1F at the 3:51 pm reading yesterday. Wish we could have sustained a long stretch at or below 0F. -4F and falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Snowmaking is cool at -15F. image.jpg Love that shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Jesus h...already -12F here at home. I see -15F nearby in Underhill and at a PWS in Morrisville. Yikes if it's already this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Haha I wish... no I've got a bunch of titles, snow reporter/weather observer/operations communication, social media supervisor, staff forecaster, staff photographer. It's a hybrid of marketing and mountain operations, though I work out of the Mtn Ops Center. I think you missed POWDER TESTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Jesus h...already -12F here at home. I see -15F nearby in Underhill and at a PWS in Morrisville. Yikes if it's already this cold. I wonder if some lows tonight could beat the previous outbreak when we were below zero for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I wonder if some lows tonight could beat the previous outbreak when we were below zero for a few days. Last night's northern NY lows were incredible, like the -35F in Gouverneur and -37F at Watertown/ART. That's brutal stuff and they aren't usually ones to beat SLK in the cold sweepstakes. What's interesting is the 24hr at Mansfield summit is 3/-13, while MVL was 0/-23, so much colder daily temperatures in the lower elevations with this cold outbreak. One of the few types of air masses that can pull that off...low level brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Last night's northern NY lows were incredible, like the -35F in Gouverneur and -37F at Watertown/ART. That's brutal stuff and they aren't usually ones to beat SLK in the cold sweepstakes. What's interesting is the 24hr at Mansfield summit is 3/-13, while MVL was 0/-23, so much colder daily temperatures in the lower elevations with this cold outbreak. One of the few types of air masses that can pull that off...low level brutal cold. I can't even imagine what -37F is like. That is incredible. BTV is now thinking we will see ice crystals forming haze in the air overnight. I saw some of that on my "cold chase" when I got my -22F lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 -11.7 here. Coldest I have been in is -34 a few years ago in Whitefield. The sun was out and there was no wind so it wasn't that bad. A guy I was in school with back in the 90's told a story of the morning a cup of coffee spilled on him in his car at -37. the coffee froze instantly and he just brushed it off. I have no idea how much exaggeration there was but a good story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 -11.7 here. Coldest I have been in is -34 a few years ago in Whitefield. The sun was out and there was no wind so it wasn't that bad. A guy I was in school with back in the 90's told a story of the morning a cup of coffee spilled on him in his car at -37. the coffee froze instantly and he just brushed it off. I have no idea how much exaggeration there was but a good story. Back when I was in 6th or 7th grade (78 or 79) I remember walking through downtown Barre and the old bank thermometer reading -30. Then a couple of years later when I was living in Brookfield I remember the radio station that our bus driver was listening to saying that it was -40 at the studio in Randolph, which is located about halfway down the hill between the interstate and the village. Neither of these are "official" but they were damn cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 -11.7 here. Coldest I have been in is -34 a few years ago in Whitefield. The sun was out and there was no wind so it wasn't that bad. A guy I was in school with back in the 90's told a story of the morning a cup of coffee spilled on him in his car at -37. the coffee froze instantly and he just brushed it off. I have no idea how much exaggeration there was but a good story. I could see that happening at -37 haha. That's an incredible temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Is it me or are some Wunderground sites horribly off when it comes to temperature? I think someone has a blow dryer close to the Maple St. Park site in Essex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.