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NNE Winter Part 3

mreaves

By mreaves,
in New England

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

An interesting note from BTV's afd: COULD
ALSO BE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN OVERNIGHT AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE
ALONG LAKESHORE OF CHITTENDEN/ADDISON COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NY.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I'm glad we're not really close rather than missing that band by 20 miles or something.

Yeh makes it more enjoyable to watch from a met standpoint.

Hopefully the cold relaxes in Feb and these lows end up tracking up into Baston Hahbur instead of way out near the Benchmark and SE.

Until then there are some clipper chances, but I would like a decent synoptic storm. Have yet to get a decent QPF snow event...either fluff or freezing rain haha. Could go for a 1.0" QPF at 20F and 12" of snow type deal. Doesn't have to be huge, but a solid warning event with some heft will be the next item on the list.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Naturally.  After all those cutters, what should we have expected?

 

However, it was fun lurking on the NYC-area forum.  My old stomping grounds in NNJ are getting hammered  - hvy snow with temps in the teens.  Good for them.

 

A good kick in the nuts would be our next big event being a cutter

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted

Interesting how much more snow the valleys around here have. Up on lava rock, due to all the inversion/rain of past, we might have 2-4" and not much more in the woods. Drive down the road 1mile and ~300' lower and it's like a whole different world. Probably double the snow or a bit more. Lava rock not only disappoints in the low temp at night dept., but also retaining any snowpack, at least during cutter events. 2-4" forecast for tomorrow? :rolleyes:  I hope, but doesn't look real hopeful. The noose comes back out if only for show :lol:

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Nope i was told it can't happen with no blocking, I mentioned this a few weeks back when it looked like this cold pattern was taking shape, When i see arctic highs just to our north, That fear always comes to fruition

I'm always worried about suppression...even more so than you guys in ME. You often get in on events that are too suppressed for us, lol.

I think it's also a function of this forum. We are the northern edge of the posting populous, so when everyone can collectively enjoy a storm we are often on the outside looking in. I always wonder what the dynamic would be if we were the southern part of the posting region (say a huge group of posters from Quebec and we didn't interact with people south of here as much)...I think then we'd be worried of storms going to far north and watching everyone post and enjoy a storm while we rain.

It's funny, if it's suppressed in the Mid-Atlantic, no one really cares and it's easier to take, because we don't really post with them. When it's in New England somewhere, you want to join in on the fun. Just an interesting forum born thing I think.

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dryslot

dryslot

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I'm always worried about suppression...even more so than you guys in ME. You often get in on events that are too suppressed for us, lol.

I think it's also a function of this forum. We are the northern edge of the posting populous, so when everyone can collectively enjoy a storm we are often on the outside looking in. I always wonder what the dynamic would be if we were the southern part of the posting region (say a huge group of posters from Quebec and we didn't interact with people south of here as much)...I think then we'd be worried of storms going to far north and watching everyone post and enjoy a storm while we rain.

It's funny, if it's suppressed in the Mid-Atlantic, no one really cares and it's easier to take, because we don't really post with them. When it's in New England somewhere, you want to join in on the fun. Just an interesting forum born thing I think.

 

I watched many of these that we are seeing today happen in 09/10, From Jan 20th on the rest of the winter i saw 6" of snow while SNE and the Mid Atlantic set records for snowfall, Lets just hope that we don't see any repeats over the next 10 days or there will be more melting NNE posters........ ;)

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
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I'm always worried about suppression...even more so than you guys in ME. You often get in on events that are too suppressed for us, lol.

I think it's also a function of this forum. We are the northern edge of the posting populous, so when everyone can collectively enjoy a storm we are often on the outside looking in. I always wonder what the dynamic would be if we were the southern part of the posting region (say a huge group of posters from Quebec and we didn't interact with people south of here as much)...I think then we'd be worried of storms going to far north and watching everyone post and enjoy a storm while we rain.

It's funny, if it's suppressed in the Mid-Atlantic, no one really cares and it's easier to take, because we don't really post with them. When it's in New England somewhere, you want to join in on the fun. Just an interesting forum born thing I think.

 

One side effect of tis truth is that it makes me cautious about bragging up the big dumps in my area, because most events that are great here are slopfests or rainers for most of the New England crowd.  Only rarely do we get a big snowfall like 12/6-7/03 that's great for almost everyone.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I watched many of these that we are seeing today happen in 09/10, From Jan 20th on the rest of the winter i saw 6" of snow while SNE and the Mid Atlantic set records for snowfall, Lets just hope that we don't see any repeats over the next 10 days or there will be more melting NNE posters........ ;)

I think it also has to do with how close you come to the snows...like this one didn't bother me at all, was never in the game. I was irate in a lot of the Dec/early Jan stuff when you guys in NH and ME were getting a parade of storms. Dendrite with a 22" snowpack while there's 4" up here sort of thing. It's harder to stomach when it's close. If DC and PHL are getting clocked, I really couldn't care less (good for them type deal).

This winter continues to prove my theory that I don't like deep winter cold for snow, even though Will/ORH will say the composite patterns of the snowy winters are all decently colder than normal. Maybe that's how the overall winters turn out or maybe that's how H5 turns out, but really cold patterns are not good for big snow up here. Maybe when it relaxes we get good snows but I'm not a huge fan of arctic outbreaks for snow. That's why our snowfall is more tied to precip than temps, which this winter has found a way to get around on both accounts haha.

It's obvious why SNE wants the arctic air masses though and why Ginxy and Jerry and those guys look for the coldest winters they can get. Snow relates more to temps down there.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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I think it also has to do with how close you come to the snows...like this one didn't bother me at all, was never in the game. I was irate in a lot of the Dec/early Jan stuff when you guys in NH and ME were getting a parade of storms. Dendrite with a 22" snowpack while there's 4" up here sort of thing. It's harder to stomach when it's close. If DC and PHL are getting clocked, I really couldn't care less (good for them type deal).

This winter continues to prove my theory that I don't like deep winter cold for snow, even though Will/ORH will say the composite patterns of the snowy winters are all decently colder than normal. Maybe that's how the overall winters turn out or maybe that's how H5 turns out, but really cold patterns are not good for big snow up here. Maybe when it relaxes we get good snows but I'm not a huge fan of arctic outbreaks for snow. That's why our snowfall is more tied to precip than temps, which this winter has found a way to get around on both accounts haha.

It's obvious why SNE wants the arctic air masses though and why Ginxy and Jerry and those guys look for the coldest winters they can get. Snow relates more to temps down there.

 

Same here, I would rather not have the arctic cold, It only hurts the storm track up here, SNE and the mid Atlantic need it, Thats why when i saw this next shot that we are in right now, My eyebrow raised, This may not be the only one we miss over the next couple week, Then we will have a relaxation and get a cutter

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PWMan

PWMan

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One side effect of tis truth is that it makes me cautious about bragging up the big dumps in my area, because most events that are great here are slopfests or rainers for most of the New England crowd. Only rarely do we get a big snowfall like 12/6-7/03 that's great for almost everyone.

Yeah, more often than not there are crickets on the forum when NNE is getting slammed. I've also observed that being downstream means that most of the forum couldn't care less about our obs; they don't have any implications for their back yards. The one exception to this is when folks in SNE are looking for signs of cold drain during marginal p-type events: then you'll see people obsessing over the temp and DP in Bangor.
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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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we will get ours.....

 

So we have been told since the 1st of Jan

 

Just looking at last year's snowfall through end of Jan and we were at a miserable 26". Currently at 35", so at least we're ahead of last year, but still looks pretty dry through next week.

 

Saturday snow showers, Monday possible clipper/miller b

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