Mid-Winter Report Card

[KamuSnow]

Seems like a good time weather wise to take a look back at the 1st half of the winter and give it a grade, along with rationale and comments.

A through F grading system.

If less than an A, what would need to happen in the 2nd half to bring the grade up?

If already an A, what has to happen if anything to keep it from falling?

 

[iceman56]

Seems like a good time weather wise to take a look back at the 1st half of the winter and give it a grade, along with rationale and comments.

A through F grading system.

If less than an A, what would need to happen in the 2nd half to bring the grade up?

If already an A, what has to happen if anything to keep it from falling?

B+ - even though I've had at least plow piles since early December, I could do without the warm spikes.   Lack of -AO/-NAO

has been the only negative so far.   I think we've got a month to go before we switch to a prevailing warmer pattern so maybe

we can get some sustained blocking in the meantime to get some heavier snows to go with the expected cold rather than

the cold, warmup w/ rain, cold over and over.

[KamuSnow]

Here's my grade:

 

B+ for the 1st half. A white Christmas and about 4" more inches of snow would have gotten it to an A. I'm trying to not be too influenced by the big improvement over last winter's first half, although relativity does come into play.

 

For the 2nd half, to maintain the B+, getting the IMBY total from the current 19.6" to 30" would probably do it.

Getting it over that with 3 or more events which include a significant coastal event would likely get it to an A.

[Redmorninglight]

C+

  We (southerners) missed out on pretty much the entire gradient pattern in December.  The two cold shots were impressive, but rather short-lived.  The warmth in between the cold has over-performed in almost every case and the rain has too (like today).  On the positive side, we did get nearly 8" of snow earlier this month which is half our climo and during the last cold snap, we got to ice skate on a local pond for about 2 days before the thaw.  

 

I think this winter for us will improve and could even bring the overall grade up to a B+ or higher if the pattern would slow down and lock some cold in and if we receive another plowable snow.  

Cheers all.

[Winter Wizard]

A- (Compared to expectations, climo, and the last two winters: A+)

 

Positives:

 

- Two 6"+ snowstorms, including a surprise 8.5" on 12/8, which was my biggest storm since 1/26/11.

- The snowpack from the 12/8 and 12/10 storms lasted for nearly two straight weeks.

- 1/3-4 and 1/7-8 brought the coldest temperatures to my area since 2004.

- I've already had four days off of school this year due to winter weather, including an unprecedented cold day on 1/7.

- I've had almost twice as much snow as the last two winters combined, and am almost at my seasonal average. I am running nearly 300% of average so far.

 

Negatives:

 

- The snow from 1/2-3 was completely gone after the rainstorm on 1/5-6.

- Big torch from 12/20 - 12/24

- Overall, it wasn't a great pattern; -EPO saved us.

 

Overall, a pretty great start to the winter; the only one I can remember that had a better start than this was 09/10, and that was pretty much because of one storm. If we get at least one KU and another arctic outbreak, the grade will remain in the A range, and may possibly move up to an A+, depending on the severity/significance of those events.

[Ralph Wiggum]

B+

A KU storm will move this grade into the A range.

Positives: Bitter cold outbreaks, already near seasonal average snowfall, and one 6-10" storm up this way (missed out up here in kdyl during the mega band in early December).

Negatives: Warm spell after Christmas, no blocking, lack of a big storm.

[KamuSnow]

B+

A KU storm will move this grade into the A range.

Positives: Bitter cold outbreaks, already near seasonal average snowfall, and one 6-10" storm up this way (missed out up here in kdyl during the mega band in early December).

Negatives: Warm spell after Christmas, no blocking, lack of a big storm.

 

While it may not be in the cards, a KU would round this winter out nicely for lots of folks.

[LVblizzard]

I give it a solid A-. We've already had 2 6"+ storms, a few other nickel-and-dime events and historic cold. Periods of warm weather have not lasted long. To give it an A, a storm of 12"+ is needed, or 2 more 6"+ storms. For an A+, the rest of the winter must be cold with not many warmups, along with a KU storm and a couple more 2-4" or 3-6" events.

[RedSky]

Give it an A with 22" snow locally. Far above normal for first half of winter, matter of fact only 1996 had more snow in the first half of winter

 

Yes two big torches wiped the snow but that comes with the territory in the MA, not like this is interior Maine. The arctic cold made up for the pre christmas torch imo. Also had snow on both eve's

 

I am an early winter person, really bugs me when we get to the halfway point of the season with little snow

[Quakertown needs snow]

A.

 

trace : Nov.
2.1" : 12/8
5.5" : 12/10
0.5" : 12/12
4.0" : 12/14 : 1.0" sleet
2.0" : 12/17
Trace : 12/24
0.5" : 12/26
0.5" : 12/31
7.5" : 01/03
2.0" : 01/10

24.6"

 

Then there was the 2 below 0 temps.

 

Outlook looks cold for next few weeks.

Add some more white and A continues.

​The rain storms sucked so no A+.

[RedSky]

A.

 

trace : Nov.

2.1" : 12/8

5.5" : 12/10

0.5" : 12/12

4.0" : 12/14 : 1.0" sleet

2.0" : 12/17

Trace : 12/24

0.5" : 12/26

0.5" : 12/31

7.5" : 01/03

2.0" : 01/10

24.6"

 

Then there was the 2 below 0 temps.

 

Outlook looks cold for next few weeks.

Add some more white and A continues.

​The rain storms sucked so no A+.

I have to start making snow you are winning

[Plokoon111]

So if winter doesn't do to good for his/her 2nd report card, will he have to stay for summer school?

[Kevin Reilly]

Seems like a good time weather wise to take a look back at the 1st half of the winter and give it a grade, along with rationale and comments.

A through F grading system.

If less than an A, what would need to happen in the 2nd half to bring the grade up?

If already an A, what has to happen if anything to keep it from falling?

 

 

Hey by the way Great Thread!!

 

Regardless of what happens going forward comparatively to the past two winters; I would give this winter a B+.  We have finally experienced some sustained winter between cold and snow for a few weeks at least.  I was calling for 15-23" at the Philadelphia International Airport this year so my personal expectations have been met.  

 

In terms of the Wild temperature Changes I am okay with that at this point because it fosters WildWeather!

 

In order for this winter of 2013-2014 to receive an "A" for me we would need to tack on 15" more or just receive one last big storm giving an area-wide 12"

 

Finally it is a REAL shame that the NAO is not negative because if it where with the other teleconnectors in place we would really be digging out this year!

[Absolute Humidity]

B -

Snowfall total is impressive so far, but at least in my neck of the woods snow cover days have sucked arse. The impressive cold was great, but with no snow cover, it made it feel just a bit warmer than it actually was. Obviously the winter is young so lots of room for improvement. Jan 2010 stunk horses butt, but then came the best Feb ever. Grade improves to an A if 35" is met along with at least ten consecutive snow cover days of at least 4".

[KamuSnow]

Hey by the way Great Thread!!

 

Regardless of what happens going forward comparatively to the past two winters; I would give this winter a B+.  We have finally experienced some sustained winter between cold and snow for a few weeks at least.  I was calling for 15-23" at the Philadelphia International Airport this year so my personal expectations have been met.  

 

In terms of the Wild temperature Changes I am okay with that at this point because it fosters WildWeather!

 

In order for this winter of 2013-2014 to receive an "A" for me we would need to tack on 15" more or just receive one last big storm giving an area-wide 12"

 

Finally it is a REAL shame that the NAO is not negative because if it where with the other teleconnectors in place we would really be digging out this year!

 

Thanks Kevin. Like you (and Redsky) said, having a nice 1st half could count for more than half the grade for some. Even with the current lull, it looks like there will be "opportunities" for more, which is a good place to be.

[KamuSnow]

So if winter doesn't do to good for his/her 2nd report card, will he have to stay for summer school?

 

lol...nah...maybe for March?

[famartin]

I'll grade this for PHL, ACY and ABE based on temps and snow compared to previous winters...

 

PHL

Temps: C... while there's been plenty of cold shots, also plenty of warm shots which have negated the cold

Snow: A/A+... one of the highest on record (though 1996, 2010 and 2011 are still ahead of this year)

Overall:  B/B+

 

ACY

Temps:  C... while there's been plenty of cold shots, also plenty of warm shots which have negated the cold

Snow:  A-... among the higher on record, though quite a few years were ahead of this year.

Overall:  B-/B

 

ABE

Temps:  B... significantly higher in the rankings than PHL for cold, but 1996 and 2011 were colder, among quite a few others

Snow:  A... one of the highest on record (though 1996 was still ahead of this year by a LONG shot)

Overall:  B+/A-

[KamuSnow]

C+

  We (southerners) missed out on pretty much the entire gradient pattern in December.  The two cold shots were impressive, but rather short-lived.  The warmth in between the cold has over-performed in almost every case and the rain has too (like today).  On the positive side, we did get nearly 8" of snow earlier this month which is half our climo and during the last cold snap, we got to ice skate on a local pond for about 2 days before the thaw.  

 

I think this winter for us will improve and could even bring the overall grade up to a B+ or higher if the pattern would slow down and lock some cold in and if we receive another plowable snow.  

Cheers all.

 

Nice!

(Good luck this coming Saturday and the rest of the winter!)

[JCT777]

A- grade for December and first half of January.  Would like to see one big snow event (10"+) before the end of winter and IMO that would bring the grade up to an A.

[chubbs]

B+

 

For all the hype temps are about average so far. Snow has been very good but we haven't had a big one. Solid cold period coming up. Need that late Jan/Feb KU to ace the final.

[KamuSnow]

B+

 

For all the hype temps are about average so far. Snow has been very good but we haven't had a big one. Solid cold period coming up. Need that late Jan/Feb KU to ace the final.

 

lol....it's just about unanimous for the KU for the A grade. Probably to the point that if it happened, winter could coast the rest of the way.

[White_Mtn_Wx]

B+ - even though I've had at least plow piles since early December, I could do without the warm spikes.   Lack of -AO/-NAO

has been the only negative so far.   I think we've got a month to go before we switch to a prevailing warmer pattern so maybe

we can get some sustained blocking in the meantime to get some heavier snows to go with the expected cold rather than

the cold, warmup w/ rain, cold over and over.

Couldn't agree more. The winter has been good so far but I'm looking at brown soggy ground on Jan 15. The extreme cold has been fun but 0-60-0-60 is something that should be reserved for the Turnpike and not a weekly Hi Lo reading on my thermometer in an A winter.

[ChescoWx]

This has been a clear A+ winter so far let's review through yesterday

 

Since December 1st we are averaging 1.6 degrees below normal (just under 60% of all days since 12/1 have been below normal)

5 low temps below 10

1 sub zero low (lowest temp since 1996)

1 day with a high below 10 degrees

17 days with below freezing highs

7 snow events of greater than 1" this season

Snow has been on the ground for 20 days this season

24.3" of snow (+229% to normal) 

December with 15.1" of snow was 281% to normal

Seasonal snow thru 1/18 is already 96% of normal snow for the season.....through the end of February

[Mitchell Gaines]

Mt Holly only 

 

Grade- B

positives: We've done very well with the snow chances we've had including a very memorable Eagles game in great snowfall rates.

- Already two 6+ snows - At least some cold periods with mainly a -EPO

 

Negatives:

+ NAO making for progressive patterns at times, to many wild swings with temps. rapid snowmelt before the PV earlier this month.  Lacking of smaller snows. 

[KamuSnow]

Mt Holly only 

 

Grade- B

positives: We've done very well with the snow chances we've had including a very memorable Eagles game in great snowfall rates.

- Already two 6+ snows - At least some cold periods with mainly a -EPO

 

Negatives:

+ NAO making for progressive patterns at times, to many wild swings with temps. rapid snowmelt before the PV earlier this month.  Lacking of smaller snows. 

 

Progressive indeed! January 2nd through the 11th featured a significant snow with cold temps, (2) warm rains with temps 50 to 60 degrees, thunder and lightning during one, (2) impressive cold snaps (to the point of record challenging for the dates), serious fog, freezing rain, ice jams...am I missing anything? All in 9 days!

[ME_wannabe]

By Wed am my grade should be A+.

[KamuSnow]

By Wed am my grade should be A+.

 

You and a few other people! 

[snowwors2]

NOTICE:

 

Let it be known that on this 7th day of March, 2013, upon review and consensus and, as set forth by this Review Board, "Very Old Man Winter" (student) has been expelled due to failing grades for his performance during the winters of 2011-12 & 2012-13!

 

Upon his successful completion of (sweltering) Summer School courses in "Philly Area Winter Meteorology" and a written commitment to over-perform during the Winter of 2013-14 ad infinitum, his records will be examined by Head Master (aka "HM") to determine his eligibility for re-admittance! 

 

"Mother Nature" is hereby required to acknowledged and sign receipt of this Notice!!

Mid-semester grades have been mailed home...

"Old Man Winter has a much better grasp of the subject material! Assuming a successful outcome to today's "exam", OMW will receive an A+ Grading but must maintain his focus and commitment throughout the balance of the 2013-14 Winter semester to avoid summer school!!

[Winter Wizard]

If we get at least one KU and another arctic outbreak, the grade will remain in the A range, and may possibly move up to an A+, depending on the severity/significance of those events.

 

With today's MECS giving us our first double digit snowfall since January 2011, and our third 6"+ snowfall of the season, I think it's safe to say that this winter deserves an A, especially with another, more prolonged arctic outbreak coming up, and more chances for storms afterwards. In order to get an A+, IMO, February will have to deliver at least average snowfall, preferably with another moderate-significant storm, and not be a torch.

[White_Mtn_Wx]

Couldn't agree more. The winter has been good so far but I'm looking at brown soggy ground on Jan 15. The extreme cold has been fun but 0-60-0-60 is something that should be reserved for the Turnpike and not a weekly Hi Lo reading on my thermometer in an A winter.

With this storm and extended arctic cold to follow, this is revised to an A.