mitchnick Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Actually, overnight mon into tues looks pretty good @ h5. Nothing great but definitely a decent look. Slower and more dig than previous runs. isn't that the 1/22 system a bit early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I will take two or three ians in a row and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 isn't that the 1/22 system a bit early? flow is so fast who knows which vort is which and how it will play out We just need one to get some kind of surface low south of us. Dealing with 50 mile needs and wishcasts on a global model is precarious. At least the period won't be boring. Well, except for Ji. I'll track anything so I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Parade of northern stream nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 flow is so fast who knows which vort is which and how it will play out We just need one to get some kind of surface low south of us. Dealing with 50 mile needs and wishcasts on a global model is precarious. At least the period won't be boring. Well, except for Ji. I'll track anything so I'm good. I figure something might Richmond us...though richmond tends to get Richmonded more than we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I figure something might Richmond us...though richmond tends to get Richmonded more than we do they are fun with realistic expectations. We share the same views. Dang cold upstairs and possible sub-freezing at the surface for any of them including dc. they seem to want to time at night. At least whatever falls will be high ratio and stick. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 they are fun with realistic expectations. We share the same views. Dang cold upstairs and possible sub-freezing at the surface for any of them including dc. they seem to want to time at night. At least whatever falls will be high ratio and stick. I'm in. I am sure most of us will be fine with a 1-2... true we would like more, but thats as much we usually get from a clipper anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 this would be a fun pattern if we lived in Greenville, SC where they are not suppose to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Once the pv parks n and ne of us the flow of ns vorts will change. gfs shows one getting below us on the 23rd. Flat flow out front doesn't do us any favors but it's a digital vort so who cares. 50/50 feature in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Once the pv parks n and ne of us the flow of ns vorts will change. gfs shows one getting below us on the 23rd. Flat flow out front doesn't do us any favors but it's a digital vort so who cares. 50/50 feature in place Yeah, GFS is a little closer to something interesting for the 23rd. Euro seems to like that period. Perhaps this a step in the Euro's direction. Having the 500mb low in eastern Quebec is better than Ontario, but it would be better farther east of course. We've got 4 vorts between tomorrow and next Thursday. I think we've got good odds that at least one of them will give most of us (i.e., everyone but DCA) a 1-2" with maybe isolated 3". And probably 1-2 cartoppers beyond that. I'm pretty good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yeah, GFS is a little closer to something interesting for the 23rd. Euro seems to like that period. Perhaps this a step in the Euro's direction. Having the 500mb low in eastern Quebec is better than Ontario, but it would be better farther east of course. We've got 4 vorts between tomorrow and next Thursday. I think we've got good odds that at least one of them will give most of us (i.e., everyone but DCA) a 1-2" with maybe isolated 3". And probably 1-2 cartoppers beyond that. I'm pretty good with that. I shouldn't have said 50/50. Just better h5 positioning and confluence. Last week of the month still looks fun. Broad trough in the east allows for longer tracks and a lot more moisture (potentially). Flow details are sketchy at best as far as track. We could get southern sliderdid, classic nw track disasterness, and the extremely rare bullseye. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 I will say one thing positive. Ncep has done a tremendous job with the model page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS gives us 4-6" around 26-28th...once we get a southern stream involved I'll get more excited, but that period has been highlighted for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 At least we have a d10.5 larger event to track now. It's THE ONE And man, it's dang cold on this run. People will be skating on the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Well, we got our modeled snow everyone has been complaining about. D15 threat is THE ONE's bodybuilding brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Well, we got our modeled snow everyone has been complaining about. D15 threat is THE ONE's bodybuilding brother. About time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 About time. Now we really have something to freak out over when it disappears...or verifies... I'm still impressed at how cold the run is. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS gives us 4-6" around 26-28th...once we get a southern stream involved I'll get more excited, but that period has been highlighted for sure At least we have a d10.5 larger event to track now. It's THE ONE And man, it's dang cold on this run. People will be skating on the canal. GFS is pretty nice door-to-door IMO. Certainly a storm signal for the 27th-ish. Can see a piece of the EPO/PNA ridge break off a bit over the top and form a bit of a west-based NAO, while the PV is underneath providing the confluence. Good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GFS is pretty nice door-to-door IMO. Certainly a storm signal for the 27th-ish. Can see a piece of the EPO/PNA ridge break off a bit over the top and form a bit of a west-based NAO, while the PV is underneath providing the confluence. Good look. Yes. GFS is showing one of the scenarios that would occur if the ridge breaks off. If that feature occurs, this will end any kind of dc snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That was definitely a good run except it has lost our heartbreaker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Now we really have something to freak out over when it disappears...or verifies... I'm still impressed at how cold the run is. Wow. All hail, JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 the Jan 25 storm will have 40:1 ratios. There is our 6-12 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 HM's popularity poll just put a hole in my roof. The one thing I really liked about the op run was no retreating of the cold. That's worrisome without a block. It's how we get rained on in between bookend freezer visits. Been there done that a couple times already. Maybe we won't this time. It's a different pattern than the last 2 cold periods. Retrograding pna & -epo reload FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 when southern stream is active....modeled storms don't typically disappear. But again, we are 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Pretty constant signal around the 26th-27th, but i'm actually kind of impressed with the GFS's consistency between D10-D16. While it's obviously out in lala land, we have seen the trough hold firm on every run for the past 48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You're missing the point here with the break off. Regardless of what happens over Greenland, the break off and pv to the east would lock cold air in as moisture intercepts. It would basically do what a -NAO would do, but maybe we have smaller room for poor timing or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 maybe we can have a new jan 25 storm to analog for the next 14 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I think one red flag indication that the gfs is wrong is that we are below to much below freezing for 11 days straight. I think a 1977 algorithm got installed before this run. When is the last time we went over a week straight below freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 the Jan 25 storm will have 40:1 ratios. There is our 6-12 storm Even has your 384 hr fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Canadian hits us hard with a Miller-B next Tuesday when GFS has the most potent clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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