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Medium Range Model Disco


Ji

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models are pretty much useless with discrete events at medium range...read Wes's articles

 

 

I recommend everyone to put the most weight by far using h5 panels. And comparing them to the previous runs. Timing and amplitude mean everything for the foreseeable future. Pay attention anytime any h5 panels look similar to this or any other pass underneath. 

 

 

post-2035-0-55113700-1389729750_thumb.jp

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I recommend everyone to put the most weight by far using h5 panels. And comparing them to the previous runs. Timing and amplitude mean everything for the foreseeable future. Pay attention anytime any h5 panels look similar to this or any other pass underneath. 

 

 

attachicon.gifvorts.JPG

 

I never really liked 1/10-1/30 for anything more than a mangled event....I have a feeling 1/22-3 will be a dryslot nightmare...I think we will have to wait and hope the pattern becomes stable for a couple weeks..maybe around 1/25 we start rocking?..kick it off with another 2-4" now that we know we can get a 2-4" event

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I never really liked 1/10-1/30 for anything more than a mangled event....I have a feeling 1/22-3 will be a dryslot nightmare...I think we will have to wait and hope the pattern becomes stable for a couple weeks..maybe around 1/25 we start rocking?..kick it off with another 2-4" now that we know we can get a 2-4" event

 

Agreed. I was only pointing out what I focus more on in the short/medium leads rather than verbatim surface. To me a 1-3 / 2-4 is an event worth watching unfold. I know you think similarly. 

 

Once the pna ridge retros and -epo reloads I think the door opens for more prolific precip makers. December had a moisture connection all the way to hawaii underneath the epo ridge for a while but there was too much toughing in the west. Made it tough on temps here and made it easy for a nw track.  Pretty close to here scored nicely though.

 

Now with the cold anomalies progged to be centered more in the eastern half of the country and possible southern connection it could be good. We'll see how things shake out over time. 

 

One encouraging sign is how stable the heights are around the pole. Whatever the pattern ends up being it looks to stick around for a while. Not some hit and run. 

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At first you don't succeed....

If it keeps the same track and amps as we get closer we will surely see better solutions.

Models are bearish on even a weak surface reflection popping east of the mountains. We need some kind of low level circ or we get mountain squeezed leftovers

Should I have waited until the 16th to post here?

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Its close, but the flow is too fast. Maybe in future runs it can slow and sharpen a bit more. Otherwise its going to come together offshore.

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