Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Does the Euro give us any precip on 22-23rd? Not a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Not a drop Not a drop yeah..doesnt phase in time so wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 so we are back to qpfless model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Not a drop But that's good right? Because we don't need models to show an actual storm, because the pattern is so awesome-sauce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'd keep his identity private dude...please delete done but he is on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 But that's good right? Because we don't need models to show an actual storm, because the pattern is so awesome-sauce? We'll get some good runs in before it goes away again. Digital qpf won't be a problem. It's the first chance at a southern moisture feed. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 so we are back to qpfless model runs Friday night could become more robust...certianly looks a bit better than the useless 45 degree event tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 nothing on JMA/GGEM through 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 nothing on JMA/GGEM through 240 canadian has a few events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 nothing on JMA/GGEM through 240 We don't need actual storms. We are just gonna pattern our way to snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 We don't need actual storms. We are just gonna pattern our way to snowfall. models are pretty much useless with discrete events at medium range...read Wes's articles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 models are pretty much useless with discrete events at medium range...read Wes's articles I will. And do. Hope you and Bob and Wes are right, but seeing storms at some point would be nice too. Plus, trying my hand at Ji-style trolling. It's kinda fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Friday night could become more robust...certianly looks a bit better than the useless 45 degree event tomorrow night Local mets down here going for C to an 1 ROA and LYH. Seems optimistic with temps. Flakes-- YES, actual accums, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 canadian has a few events same events we have had for the past 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 models are pretty much useless with discrete events at medium range...read Wes's articles I recommend everyone to put the most weight by far using h5 panels. And comparing them to the previous runs. Timing and amplitude mean everything for the foreseeable future. Pay attention anytime any h5 panels look similar to this or any other pass underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The northern stream can kiss my arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I recommend everyone to put the most weight by far using h5 panels. And comparing them to the previous runs. Timing and amplitude mean everything for the foreseeable future. Pay attention anytime any h5 panels look similar to this or any other pass underneath. vorts.JPG I never really liked 1/10-1/30 for anything more than a mangled event....I have a feeling 1/22-3 will be a dryslot nightmare...I think we will have to wait and hope the pattern becomes stable for a couple weeks..maybe around 1/25 we start rocking?..kick it off with another 2-4" now that we know we can get a 2-4" event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I never really liked 1/10-1/30 for anything more than a mangled event....I have a feeling 1/22-3 will be a dryslot nightmare...I think we will have to wait and hope the pattern becomes stable for a couple weeks..maybe around 1/25 we start rocking?..kick it off with another 2-4" now that we know we can get a 2-4" event Agreed. I was only pointing out what I focus more on in the short/medium leads rather than verbatim surface. To me a 1-3 / 2-4 is an event worth watching unfold. I know you think similarly. Once the pna ridge retros and -epo reloads I think the door opens for more prolific precip makers. December had a moisture connection all the way to hawaii underneath the epo ridge for a while but there was too much toughing in the west. Made it tough on temps here and made it easy for a nw track. Pretty close to here scored nicely though. Now with the cold anomalies progged to be centered more in the eastern half of the country and possible southern connection it could be good. We'll see how things shake out over time. One encouraging sign is how stable the heights are around the pole. Whatever the pattern ends up being it looks to stick around for a while. Not some hit and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Are we going to have an 1800z model thread too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 60% chance we bust on a 25% boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 NAM is dry as a bone.. never a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Days and days of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Days and days of fast pattern fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I heard from a well respected met that we really get waxed by the 18z Brazilian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Wow. This is a really depressing thread. Just sayin'. Thank God for the stable heights around the Pole. . It is what it is and Bob is right saying that 1.5 to 2 is worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Someone should make a general Model discussion thread for short lead threats, since we know this upcoming pattern is gonna be chock full of storm chances, hints of chances, and GFS fantasies. Maybe change the title of this thread...Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_093_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=093&group=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 hard to believe this couldnt produce a better clipper for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 At first you don't succeed.... If it keeps the same track and amps as we get closer we will surely see better solutions. Models are bearish on even a weak surface reflection popping east of the mountains. We need some kind of low level circ or we get mountain squeezed leftovers Should I have waited until the 16th to post here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_093_200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht_s.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06¶m=200_wnd_ht%7C500_vort_ht%7C1000_500_thick%7C850_temp_ht&fhr=093&group=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 hard to believe this couldnt produce a better clipper for us Its close, but the flow is too fast. Maybe in future runs it can slow and sharpen a bit more. Otherwise its going to come together offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 And why not just make one general model discussion thread instead of making a new one everyday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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