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Medium Range Model Disco


Ji

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Honestly, I'm not sure why there's such doom and gloom in here. This is the BEST look we've seen in years. Might mean nothing but even the thought of something is better than the last two years. They were horrific.

 

I figure at some point the have nots have to at least reach 75% of climo...so it isnt like it cant snow...unless 3-5" is the new norm for some people...which would suck

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One of the best GFS runs in quite a while. Looks like numerous possibilites as we get to the end of January. The storms that have been forming offshore lately may finally be shifting west. Is that because of better ridging out west?

I thought the ridging out west was too far to the east but has shifted west now and will be in a better spot. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

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One of the best GFS runs in quite a while. Looks like numerous possibilites as we get to the end of January. The storms that have been forming offshore lately may finally be shifting west. Is that because of better ridging out west?

 

yes...plus Masco like the N Atl ridge, and I suppose he is right that that feature could help us where it is versus 50-50

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I figure at some point the have nots have to at least reach 75% of climo...so it isnt like it cant snow...unless 3-5" is the new norm for some people...which would suck

After the past two years and watching that Day after Christmas storm in 2010 blow up past us... I'm willing to take any snow amounts and be happy. I think we all needed a reality check.

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I could see us getting 1" this weekend in DC..i know that won't excite most, but we are in good climo now...

I could too,  of the three events, the third clipper will be colder so it has the most legs.  Plus if you slow down the following northern stream I think the vort approaching us sat would stay stronger longer. 

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After the past two years and watching that Day after Christmas storm in 2010 blow up past us... I'm willing to take any snow amounts and be happy. I think we all needed a reality check.

I don't really care what others like at this point...if people don't like 0.5" events so be it...Though I do think there is more insanity in not caring about the small ones but always chasing a big one...

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I could too,  of the three events, the third clipper will be colder so it has the most legs.  Plus if you slow down the following northern stream I think the vort approaching us sat would stay stronger longer. 

Isn't that sort of the problem with this progressive pattern Wes? That's not sarcastic by the way... I seriously want to know.  :weenie:

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I could too,  of the three events, the third clipper will be colder so it has the most legs.  Plus if you slow down the following northern stream I think the vort approaching us sat would stay stronger longer. 

 

Hopefully the euro still has it...I don't think anyone was ever too into Wednesday.If I see a couple mangled mood flakes wednesday night I'll consider it a victory

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Bob Chill is not feeling funny or humored by 12z gfs op. Bob Chill also likes his chicken spicy. 

 

Bob Chill has observed all vorts to come in more amplified as leads shorten. This observation leaves Bob Chill remaining interested in the weekend and the 22nd-23rd. 

 

Bob Chill thinks the euro better come in good or Ji's thread is a disaster of epoch propositions. 

 

Like Boxing Day 2010?  A point in history that serves as a reference for that which comes after?

 

Perhaps a period of time punctuated by events so disastrous that they will be forever remembered?

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Isn't that sort of the problem with this progressive pattern Wes? That's not sarcastic by the way... I seriously want to know.  :weenie:

That makes it tougher but it still a matter of timing and we don't know the timing of the upstream trough.  The saturday event isn't likely to be a huge deal even with a stronger vort but would have more potential to give the dc area  a 1-3 or 2-4  inch snow rather than a dusting to inch.  Of course there is still potential for the Saturday event to miss us entirely. 

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is that the vort the GFS has for Saturday night or different one?

thx

 

no..it is the vort the GFS has for FRiday night...both have essentially the same solution

 

Euro has nothing Sat night...never develops, though there is something well to our north

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I should have kept count on the number of times I've seen "this is the best pattern since forever"  

yeah, instead of snow storms missing us to the east, west, north, or south, now they go right over us a wave while they drop little to nothing on us

we finally have all the ways covered to miss snow, so we got that going for us which is niscch

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yeah, instead of snow storms missing us to the east, west, north, or south, now they go right over us a wave while they drop little to nothing on us

we finally have all the ways covered to miss snow, so we got that going for us which is niscch

 

I think the good pattern everyone is bullish about is after the 21st or so...anything before then is kind of a bonus...of course the advertised pattern might not yield anything either...

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