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Medium Range Model Disco


Ji

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Merged the three prior model tracking threads. I dunno how you guys want to do this but by week seems about the right length for 1000 post threads if you want to continue. Otherwise go to one of the 58 other threads about snow as you choose.  

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18z GFS / euro really displace the PV east this time next week, acting as a pseudo 50-50. This is all going on as the PNA surf goes up. Models send a small Pacific piece underneath the western ridge to get involved with the PJ behind the departing PV. That has "the look" for accumulating snowfall, should that Pacific piece come out and the PV positions like that. I think I like it...what kind of large-scale changes happen in a week to alter these two main players?

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...what kind of large-scale changes happen in a week to alter these two main players?

Because I'm paranoid....

Pv/pseudo block flexes too much and causes the necessary southern moisture into too much of an ene trajectory and it quietly slides off the coast below us....

Or it ends up just a bit too much n so slp pressure tracks the apps giving us sloppy firsts as everything jumps the coast off of OC and destroys nyc on north .

These aren't exactly large scale pattern changes but since we live in small scale make or break latitude I know what to look for really well from having too much experience

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which always begs the question, why have the NAM, America's short range model????

 

I haven't figured it out yet....I think it is good with severe weather.....Hi Res has a 3 hour or so event starting around midnight tomorrow night...maybe we can get 1/2"

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