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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Crap, the EURO has the PV coming down into the Lakes Day 6 with -24c h85 temps over the Ohio river. Here comes the PV hype again...

We're already calling today's cold in Florida as PV related. Nahnahnah. 

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IMO- the run is kind of a disaster of sorts. We don't need a massive -ao and pv intruding. Kills the ss chances. This run shows that pretty well. It's a squasher on many levels. 

 

This run only goes to Jan 27 12z. I'm not sure how you can say this pattern leading up to the end of the month potential is anything other than good. I guess my only complaint would be to see more of a "Pacific break-through" of moisture by the end of the month.

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This run only goes to Jan 27 12z. I'm not sure how you can say this pattern leading up to the end of the month potential is anything other than good. I guess my only complaint would be to see more of a "Pacific break-through" of moisture by the end of the month.

 

Only calling it a bit of a disaster verbatim. Yesterday we talked about having the pv in se canada with pac energy diving over the pna and backside of the gyre. It was a snow look. Now we have a massive medicine ball cold dome getting pushed hard core into the US. So the snowy look is gone until it relaxes sometime in d10-15. 

 

You'll never hear me complain about an -ao/nao like the one shown because if it really happens it will be tough to get rid of for a while. But it's still a disappointing run. And it will change many times over the next week. I'm hugging the gfs/gefs ;)

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We're already calling today's cold in Florida as PV related. Nahnahnah. 

 

lol...I almost want this whole thing to fail. Some epic quotes are probably on the way after today's 12z runs.

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the JMA and GGEM are pretty much qpfless for us in their respective runs. Thats pretty alarming

 
Euro ens mean is in agreement through 15 days. If I hadn't recently experienced getting missed in all directions multiple times I would laugh at the panel. Now I cry. 
 
Control looks like the exact opposite of 0z so we have that going for us too. 
 
post-2035-0-58283900-1389994862_thumb.jp
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GFS at 162 still has those western vorts I'm interested in. Let's see what happens...

The way this pattern is likely to evolve with the trough axis retro grading its likely eventually the region gets a snow just a shame that it may happen towards the end of the cold and thus waste the cold and when it finally snows the thaw follows and it's gone.
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GFS at 162 still has those western vorts I'm interested in.   Let's see what happens...

I think that first system to come out of the west at day 8 is our first chance, but I really like the second and third waves.  I think the trough is likely to shift west and flatten out more as this evolves and that will give each wave greater and greater chance to tap the gulf for some moisture and amplify.  Of course eventually without a -NAO we are also running the risk of something cutting but with all the cold around I will take my chances.  I also think as we get into Feb there is a chance we get a more favorable NAO.  I made a post with my thoughts on my facebook blog...yes shameless promotion. 

https://www.facebook.com/hoffmansmidatlanticwinterweatherpage

GF thinks if I am going to waste so much time following weather I may as well do something productive with it.  I would love to get more people to comment and contribute.

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very enouraged by the Euro ensembles for after day 10....top 7 analogs all have snow..3 of them significant snow...3, 1-3" type events...and one with a T-1"......Getting the PV to our northeast makes all the difference in the world

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very enouraged by the Euro ensembles for after day 10....top 7 analogs all have snow..3 of them significant snow...3, 1-3" type events...and one with a T-1"......Getting the PV to our northeast makes all the difference in the world

That's good to hear. It's become pretty clear that until the pna retrogrades some we are stuck with dry little vorts. None have a chance to amplify and none can get the gulf or pac moisture involved. It is what it is though. OTOH- euro ensemble members a lot more enthused for d6-10 than the op or previous ens run. It's a marked improvement. DCA mean is back up to 2" but plenty of members show modest hits...and a couple solid 6"+ hits...lol

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I think that first system to come out of the west at day 8 is our first chance, but I really like the second and third waves.  I think the trough is likely to shift west and flatten out more as this evolves and that will give each wave greater and greater chance to tap the gulf for some moisture and amplify.  Of course eventually without a -NAO we are also running the risk of something cutting but with all the cold around I will take my chances.  I also think as we get into Feb there is a chance we get a more favorable NAO.  I made a post with my thoughts on my facebook blog...yes shameless promotion. 

https://www.facebook.com/hoffmansmidatlanticwinterweatherpage

GF thinks if I am going to waste so much time following weather I may as well do something productive with it.  I would love to get more people to comment and contribute.

cool. I am fan. Nice to see a pessimist with a facebook page

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very enouraged by the Euro ensembles for after day 10....top 7 analogs all have snow..3 of them significant snow...3, 1-3" type events...and one with a T-1"......Getting the PV to our northeast makes all the difference in the world

what 3 analogs?

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very enouraged by the Euro ensembles for after day 10....top 7 analogs all have snow..3 of them significant snow...3, 1-3" type events...and one with a T-1"......Getting the PV to our northeast makes all the difference in the world

wish I had access to the euro analogs but I know today's GFS day 8 analogs were impressive...number 1 analog was a day after the January 1961 HECS, and the Feb 4 1995 storm showed up in the 3rd analog.  Most were from years that had some snow during the week before or after. 

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wish I had access to the euro analogs but I know today's GFS day 8 analogs were impressive...number 1 analog was a day after the January 1961 HECS, and the Feb 4 1995 storm showed up in the 3rd analog.  Most were from years that had some snow during the week before or after. 

 

Those analogs keep showing up, and they are fine, but 1995 was thread the needle and a lucky quick event....The 2 end of January 1961 storms were nice of course, but the 1st could easily have busted

 

I want to see the PV to our NE, for DC metro to have a good chance to get anything more than a 2-4/3-5" event...euro ens have that

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Those analogs keep showing up, and they are fine, but 1995 was thread the needle and a lucky quick event....The 2 end of January 1961 storms were nice of course, but the 1st could easily have busted

 

I want to see the PV to our NE, for DC metro to have a good chance to get anything more than a 2-4/3-5" event...euro ens have that

You are right but there are only a few events in history where it wasn't a "close call" or a near miss.  1996 and 2010 type events are very very very rare so having a list of analogs where decent to good snow events show up tells me at least the pattern has potential.  nothing more nothing less

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very enouraged by the Euro ensembles for after day 10....top 7 analogs all have snow..3 of them significant snow...3, 1-3" type events...and one with a T-1"......Getting the PV to our northeast makes all the difference in the world

That's good to hear.  I don't see it's analogs unless the other Matt sends them to me for a post.  

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One of these vorts is going to pop for us in the next 5-6 days. I'm kinda feelin it. The vort moving through right now got fat up to game time. Yes, it's a further n event but still. Gfs is now dropping some cookie crumbs. We might be short changing ourselves by focusing on late next week for a satisfying event. I'm gaining a little confidence for the next 5 days or so.

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