Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 you could see early on that the ns was not pressing SE, but ESE if it presses more south as it did on earlier runs, result is better It's a giant ball of spinning cold with a broad trough compared to the next 5 days. Logic says backside energy will dig. No worries here overall. We'll get asspiles of looks as we move forward. Good God the cold runs are stacking up now. I'm sharpening my skates. Potomac is going to jam somewhere. Good photo ops for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's the 0z. Toss it. Depressing last night as well. Something has to sneak up on us. Maybe sometime soon we get a 2-4 surprise. Ugh. Trying hard not to be despondent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's a giant ball of spinning cold with a broad trough compared to the next 5 days. Logic says backside energy will dig. No worries here overall. We'll get asspiles of looks as we move forward. Good God the cold runs are stacking up now. I'm sharpening my skates. Potomac is going to jam somewhere. Good photo ops for sure. Cold/dry. You know the tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 We always trend the wrong way. The weekend clippers are a joke. The jan 21-22 event has vanished. We never lose a modeled rainstorm ... You and I both know it will trend better. And then freak us out wirh a monster. And go the other way again. We'll get our fix of modeled snow. Ss is alive and well for somebody somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I feel like screaming. Northern stream nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 I feel like screaming. Northern stream nonsense. Look on the bright side. Any ns vort that farts .1 will be 20:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 we have a good chance at a 3" event before the month is over...that is the kind of event that is supported by the pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 How cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I like that CMC run-- (insert Matt calling it worthless) Wave along arctic front. Would be the rare "region wide" 4-8 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Disastrous Euro run, plus GFS op has almost no support from the ensemble members wrt 25-27 "storm". On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked if the January 22nd storm resurrects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 6z is also...disastrous if you are looking for a southern stream or modeled storms to follow. In the long or short range. If you are rooting for a Herculean northern stream that squashes everything in existence, that's the run for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'm creeping out onto the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 How cold? Increasingly concerned that "Tenman Johnson" is a bot account. Random and incoherent posts, usually late at night and with no continuity to the discussion or topic at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Increasingly concerned that "Tenman Johnson" is a bot account. Random and incoherent posts, usually late at night and with no continuity to the discussion or topic at hand. He has been doing that for 10 plus years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Individual op runs are not much use at medium range and esp in the pattern that is evolving. Yesterdays 12z GFS looked great, 0z not so much. Look at the pattern...with all the arctic air that is going to be around and the baroclinic zone just offshore, eventually one of these shortwaves will sharpen the trough and something is gonna pop along the coast. Canadian model is on-board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Individual op runs are not much use at medium range and esp in the pattern that is evolving. Yesterdays 12z GFS looked great, 0z not so much. Look at the pattern...with all the arctic air that is going to be around and the baroclinic zone just offshore, eventually one of these shortwaves will sharpen the trough and something is gonna pop along the coast. Canadian model is on-board.. Yes. I think Wes mentioned this as well. Whatever comes may be on short notice. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The Canadian model is always on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The Canadian model is always on board Yeah but it shows the type of storm this pattern is likely to yield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Individual op runs are not much use at medium range and esp in the pattern that is evolving. Yesterdays 12z GFS looked great, 0z not so much. Look at the pattern...with all the arctic air that is going to be around and the baroclinic zone just offshore, eventually one of these shortwaves will sharpen the trough and something is gonna pop along the coast. Canadian model is on-board.. Most probably realize this, but if we get a super cold arctic air mass we typically don't get tons of snow in the same period. 85 and 94 had some snow, but not a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Most probably realize this, but if we get a super cold arctic air mass we typically don't get tons of snow in the same period. 85 and 94 had some snow, but not a lot. Who is expecting tons of snow? Its not going to happen, at least initially. But light to moderate events seem realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Most probably realize this, but if we get a super cold arctic air mass we typically don't get tons of snow in the same period. 85 and 94 had some snow, but not a lot. There are exceptions to every rule. I well remember late January of 1966. On Friday January 28 it was mostly sunny and very cold with a high of 20 degrees. Saturday into Sunday, the 29th and 30th brought 16.5 inches of snow with a high of only 7 degrees and a low of 2............Those were the days and yes, it can happen........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 There are exceptions to every rule. I well remember late January of 1966. On Friday January 28 it was mostly sunny and very cold with a high of 20 degrees. Saturday into Sunday, the 29th and 30th brought 16.5 inches of snow with a high of only 7 degrees and a low of 2............Those were the days and yes, it can happen........ Your dates are a bit off but who cares about accuracy...Most significant daily Jan 96 max cold departures were a bit ho hum...-10 to -15...Two weeks later it was in the high 50s low 60s and all the snow was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Your dates are a bit off but who cares about accuracy...Most significant daily Jan 96 max cold departures were a bit ho hum...-10 to -15...Two weeks later it was in the high 50s low 60s and all the snow was gone. Your dates are a bit off but who cares about accuracy...Most significant daily Jan 96 max cold departures were a bit ho hum...-10 to -15...Two weeks later it was in the high 50s low 60s and all the snow was gone. My dates are exactly right my friend! They are from my personal diary for 1966....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 My dates are exactly right my friend! They are from my personal diary for 1966....................... My apologies, a bit of dsylexia...you are correct. I saw 96 where you typed 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 About half last nights ec members show accum snow in some fashion between the 22nd and 24th. Nothing fancy. Most bullish members are 4-5" but few of them. Ens mean for DCA snow during the 10 days is just 1.8" Just relaying the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 About half last nights ec members show accum snow in some fashion between the 22nd and 24th. Nothing fancy. Most bullish members are 4-5" but few of them. Ens mean for DCA snow during the 10 days is just 1.8" Just relaying the info. is it me or did the 11-15 day Euro ensembles not look as great? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 is it me or did the 11-15 day Euro ensembles not look as great? We start drier before the period but plenty of southern moisture verbatim. during the last 3-4 days. The problem is the 0z means sucked through d10. eta: just ran the loop. The means give us about .5 or so d11-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 is it me or did the 11-15 day Euro ensembles not look as great? Yeah they are getting that retrogression going in a hurry. Our concerns for a warm shot Feb 5-10 are definitely there. All ensembles agree on two major PV displacements between Jan 23-Feb 1. It will be behind each rotation that we watch for a threat. Right now, it was the Canadian Ensembles on the 00z run that had the most assertive EPO to NAO connection, forcing an ideal pattern at the end of the month for snow. Plenty of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The GFS has brought back the late January threat. That time frame seems to be the period to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Wouldn't the SLP in the Central Plains at Day 10 on the GGEM be forced below our latitude due the PV in Quebec? Yes I know Day 10 lala land, but wouldn't it suggest that it may grab some GOM moisture on its track and have potential for a east coast storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.