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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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While the pattern change looks promising and ample opportunities are on the table...the big takeaway I see are the more likely threats are for Philly to NYC to Boston.  BWI and DCA fringed with teaser events at best.  Unless the Gulf opens up for business, I see the action North of our latitude.

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This is why I don't get all excited when 40N people wax about an "epic" pattern

NYC average snow - 25.1", My average snow - 17.7"

2012-13: NYC - 26.1", IMBY - 5.0"

2010-11: NYC - 61.9", IMBY - 12.5"

2008-09: NYC - 27.6", IMBY - 10.25"

2005-06: NYC - 40.0", IMBY - 17.5"

2004-05: NYC - 41.0", IMBY - 17.0"

2003-04: NYC - 42.6", IMBY - 13.5"

2000-01: NYC - 35.0", IMBY - 9.0"

Now of course there are years where we are closer or I beat them,...I cherry picked... but often recently there is no "WE"..."we" means failure for me...

But you left out the biggest "we"; 2009-2010!

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The only thing the lr gfs really did was show a possible active southern stream and plenty of cold. It was a good run but hardly a harbinger. Except maybe that we do get some sustained cold. Lots of support for that. The rest is much up in the air. The last few gefs runs showed plenty of wet solutions but some didn't include frozen and others were wet and frozen in other places. 

 

No being a deb. Just realistic. 

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An active southern stream and plenty of cold is enough to peak interest. We have not seen that look a lot in recent years.I think it is fair to be interested in seeing if the other globals pick up on that combo, and if future runs of the GFS hold with an active southern stream and cold. The exact details obviously don't matter - for me, I just want to see those two things start to show up on the modeling and hope it eventually plays out in a way that gives us chances.

 

Speaking for myself, clearly.

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This is why I don't get all excited when 40N people wax about an "epic" pattern

 

NYC average snow - 25.1", My average snow - 17.7"

 

2012-13: NYC - 26.1", IMBY - 5.0"

2010-11: NYC - 61.9", IMBY - 12.5"

2008-09: NYC - 27.6", IMBY - 10.25"

2005-06: NYC - 40.0", IMBY - 17.5"

2004-05: NYC - 41.0", IMBY - 17.0"

2003-04: NYC - 42.6", IMBY - 13.5"

2000-01: NYC - 35.0", IMBY - 9.0"

 

 

Now of course there are years where we are closer or I beat them,...I cherry picked... but often recently there is no "WE"..."we" means failure for me...

Well, and IAD's average is not far from NYC's-- 3" difference seasonal-- and IAD did not do much better than you did in any of these above season. Your 05/06 and 08/09 totals beat IADs'.

 

Even solid posters from NYC/Boston who fondly remember 03/04 and 04/05 seem surprised to learn that the winters were mediocre at best southwest of them.

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Any thoughts on the warming event(s) the models have been showing at 10-30 mb? Is it going to be a real SSW event, one that can have an impact on the PV and be a catalyst for a -NAO in early Feb?

Hey, sorry for the late response. I think, as far as the longer-term/seasonal factors and the subseasonal factors we are seeing now, this all seems precursory to a PV split in February. This isn't exactly the coldest signal for the USA post-split. It is actually colder for us leading up to it because the tropospheric waves that upwell for a wave 2 usually bring us the cold (NE PAC ridge / eastern European Ridge). This is exactly what we are seeing on the modeling for late Jan-early Feb. Our friends in the UK will of course be watching this closely since splitters usually aid in significant easterlies there and Siberian flow.

Having said that, ultimately, this could carve out NAO blocking mid February. Again, we could also get a brief west -NAO with this EPO/PNA ridge "break off" behind the polar vortex in late Jan.

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Having said that, ultimately, this could carve out NAO blocking mid February. Again, we could also get a brief west -NAO with this EPO/PNA ridge "break off" behind the polar vortex in late Jan.

 

HM, I think the euro op showed this progression d8-10. I'm not 100% sure that it's what you describe but it sure looked like it to me. If you get a chance and look I would appreciate feedback so I can lock it into my memory bank for future years. 

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HM, I think the euro op showed this progression d8-10. I'm not 100% sure that it's what you describe but it sure looked like it to me. If you get a chance and look I would appreciate feedback so I can lock it into my memory bank for future years.

Yes, both the operational and EPS have significantly headed in that direction, like the GFS suite. This is going to be a large breaker with a pretty ridiculous air mass trapped to its SE.

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Euro ens mean shows precip on wed and again thurs next week so some members must be picking up on the clippers that the op stole. 

 

d9 threat doesn't have as strong of a signal on the means but it's hard to tell. Looks like 2 areas of precip move up from the gulf in a short time. Probably a mixed bag of slower and faster solutions for the same storm. 

 

D11-15 looks like the southern stream is there. Progressively wetter along the gulf coast and northeastward as time goes forward.  

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Euro ens mean shows precip on wed and again thurs next week so some members must be picking up on the clippers that the op stole. 

 

d9 threat doesn't have as strong of a signal on the means but it's hard to tell. Looks like 2 areas of precip move up from the gulf in a short time. Probably a mixed bag of slower and faster solutions for the same storm. 

 

D11-15 looks like the southern stream is there. Progressively wetter along the gulf coast and northeastward as time goes forward.  

 

Jan 27-Jan 33 is looking pretty tasty

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I think we will see 15-20 inches before winter ends. And then about 70-90 next winter

 

I'm trying not to buy into a real period of snow. Heck, I don't even remember what one looks like. But I'm starting to believe we get a couple half decent snows in the next 2-3 weeks. And it will actually stick to the roads and be around more than 3 hours after sunrise. 

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D to the T sent me this unsolicited but maybe he posted it elsewhere too .. good quick read:

 

From what I can see there are three possible snowstorm threat for the East Coast or some portion of the East Coast. JAN 21-22 JAN 24-25 and JAN 28

 

The first one is the event of January 21 - 22. Yesterday the models are quite bullish on this system but today they have backed off somewhat. That may just be model variants but we are dealing with systems which are diving out of the great lakes and swinging rapidly through into the mean trough position on the East Coast. This is why were getting these clipper systems because is simply do not have enough time to gather significant moisture or to develop a significant low level circulation. However as the polar vortex comes southward its massive size of the system is going to change the shape and the position of the pattern across North America. The energy for the JAN 24-25 system actually enters the country over Montana and North Dakota - NOT over the Great Lakes -- and this allows it to develop because it swings through the Plains and the Midwest and it has a better chance to gather significant moisture bought time and reaches. the East Coast The arctic front continues to sink southward and there may be a significant LOW pressure development on the gulf coast along the arctic front JAN 27-28 that could become a significant East Coast snowstorm JAN 28-29.

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Looking through the 0z and 12z euro op and ensemble indices caught my eye. There was a noteworthy trend toward towards a -ao/nao combo. Gfs and gefs have the trend but not as obvious as the euro.

We've been talking about lack of blocking constantly but now I'm not totally sold that we won't have Atlantic help this month.

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Looking through the 0z and 12z euro op and ensemble indices caught my eye. There was a noteworthy trend toward towards a -ao/nao combo. Gfs and gefs have the trend but not as obvious as the euro.

We've been talking about lack of blocking constantly but now I'm not totally sold that we won't have Atlantic help this month.

yep, I'd have to agree Bob on the help idea but disagree that GFS ain't showing it so much

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html

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0z gfs op doesnt connect the ns and ss energy next week. This run will make no friends. Players on the field but they aren't a team this go around

you could see early on that the ns was not pressing SE, but ESE

if it presses more south as it did on earlier runs, result is better

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