snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yup, I guess cold and dry is better than warm and dry? I mean-- it feels like winter and all. for me, yes...I like smaller snow events...others dont care for them or like to play the lottery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 While the pattern change looks promising and ample opportunities are on the table...the big takeaway I see are the more likely threats are for Philly to NYC to Boston. BWI and DCA fringed with teaser events at best. Unless the Gulf opens up for business, I see the action North of our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Helluva GFS run, maybe even good enough to make Ian less of a Snow Eeyore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This is why I don't get all excited when 40N people wax about an "epic" pattern NYC average snow - 25.1", My average snow - 17.7" 2012-13: NYC - 26.1", IMBY - 5.0" 2010-11: NYC - 61.9", IMBY - 12.5" 2008-09: NYC - 27.6", IMBY - 10.25" 2005-06: NYC - 40.0", IMBY - 17.5" 2004-05: NYC - 41.0", IMBY - 17.0" 2003-04: NYC - 42.6", IMBY - 13.5" 2000-01: NYC - 35.0", IMBY - 9.0" Now of course there are years where we are closer or I beat them,...I cherry picked... but often recently there is no "WE"..."we" means failure for me... But you left out the biggest "we"; 2009-2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 The only thing the lr gfs really did was show a possible active southern stream and plenty of cold. It was a good run but hardly a harbinger. Except maybe that we do get some sustained cold. Lots of support for that. The rest is much up in the air. The last few gefs runs showed plenty of wet solutions but some didn't include frozen and others were wet and frozen in other places. No being a deb. Just realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 An active southern stream and plenty of cold is enough to peak interest. We have not seen that look a lot in recent years.I think it is fair to be interested in seeing if the other globals pick up on that combo, and if future runs of the GFS hold with an active southern stream and cold. The exact details obviously don't matter - for me, I just want to see those two things start to show up on the modeling and hope it eventually plays out in a way that gives us chances. Speaking for myself, clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This is why I don't get all excited when 40N people wax about an "epic" pattern NYC average snow - 25.1", My average snow - 17.7" 2012-13: NYC - 26.1", IMBY - 5.0" 2010-11: NYC - 61.9", IMBY - 12.5" 2008-09: NYC - 27.6", IMBY - 10.25" 2005-06: NYC - 40.0", IMBY - 17.5" 2004-05: NYC - 41.0", IMBY - 17.0" 2003-04: NYC - 42.6", IMBY - 13.5" 2000-01: NYC - 35.0", IMBY - 9.0" Now of course there are years where we are closer or I beat them,...I cherry picked... but often recently there is no "WE"..."we" means failure for me... Well, and IAD's average is not far from NYC's-- 3" difference seasonal-- and IAD did not do much better than you did in any of these above season. Your 05/06 and 08/09 totals beat IADs'. Even solid posters from NYC/Boston who fondly remember 03/04 and 04/05 seem surprised to learn that the winters were mediocre at best southwest of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-for-february/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Any thoughts on the warming event(s) the models have been showing at 10-30 mb? Is it going to be a real SSW event, one that can have an impact on the PV and be a catalyst for a -NAO in early Feb? Hey, sorry for the late response. I think, as far as the longer-term/seasonal factors and the subseasonal factors we are seeing now, this all seems precursory to a PV split in February. This isn't exactly the coldest signal for the USA post-split. It is actually colder for us leading up to it because the tropospheric waves that upwell for a wave 2 usually bring us the cold (NE PAC ridge / eastern European Ridge). This is exactly what we are seeing on the modeling for late Jan-early Feb. Our friends in the UK will of course be watching this closely since splitters usually aid in significant easterlies there and Siberian flow. Having said that, ultimately, this could carve out NAO blocking mid February. Again, we could also get a brief west -NAO with this EPO/PNA ridge "break off" behind the polar vortex in late Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Having said that, ultimately, this could carve out NAO blocking mid February. Again, we could also get a brief west -NAO with this EPO/PNA ridge "break off" behind the polar vortex in late Jan. HM, I think the euro op showed this progression d8-10. I'm not 100% sure that it's what you describe but it sure looked like it to me. If you get a chance and look I would appreciate feedback so I can lock it into my memory bank for future years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 HM, I think the euro op showed this progression d8-10. I'm not 100% sure that it's what you describe but it sure looked like it to me. If you get a chance and look I would appreciate feedback so I can lock it into my memory bank for future years. Yes, both the operational and EPS have significantly headed in that direction, like the GFS suite. This is going to be a large breaker with a pretty ridiculous air mass trapped to its SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Im telling people that if they want some warmth during this cold stretch, to buy a ticket to Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro ens mean shows precip on wed and again thurs next week so some members must be picking up on the clippers that the op stole. d9 threat doesn't have as strong of a signal on the means but it's hard to tell. Looks like 2 areas of precip move up from the gulf in a short time. Probably a mixed bag of slower and faster solutions for the same storm. D11-15 looks like the southern stream is there. Progressively wetter along the gulf coast and northeastward as time goes forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Euro ens mean shows precip on wed and again thurs next week so some members must be picking up on the clippers that the op stole. d9 threat doesn't have as strong of a signal on the means but it's hard to tell. Looks like 2 areas of precip move up from the gulf in a short time. Probably a mixed bag of slower and faster solutions for the same storm. D11-15 looks like the southern stream is there. Progressively wetter along the gulf coast and northeastward as time goes forward. Jan 27-Jan 33 is looking pretty tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Jan 27-Jan 33 is looking pretty tasty It really does. It's wet down south streaming up and dang cold overhead on the means. I think the 32nd might be the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It really does. It's wet down south streaming up and dang cold overhead on the means. I think the 32nd might be the big one. I think we will see 15-20 inches before winter ends. And then about 70-90 next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 I think we will see 15-20 inches before winter ends. And then about 70-90 next winter I'm trying not to buy into a real period of snow. Heck, I don't even remember what one looks like. But I'm starting to believe we get a couple half decent snows in the next 2-3 weeks. And it will actually stick to the roads and be around more than 3 hours after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Can I buy one deluxe Mid-Atlantic special please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Can I buy one deluxe Mid-Atlantic special please? Only if SNO allows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 D to the T sent me this unsolicited but maybe he posted it elsewhere too .. good quick read: From what I can see there are three possible snowstorm threat for the East Coast or some portion of the East Coast. JAN 21-22 JAN 24-25 and JAN 28 The first one is the event of January 21 - 22. Yesterday the models are quite bullish on this system but today they have backed off somewhat. That may just be model variants but we are dealing with systems which are diving out of the great lakes and swinging rapidly through into the mean trough position on the East Coast. This is why were getting these clipper systems because is simply do not have enough time to gather significant moisture or to develop a significant low level circulation. However as the polar vortex comes southward its massive size of the system is going to change the shape and the position of the pattern across North America. The energy for the JAN 24-25 system actually enters the country over Montana and North Dakota - NOT over the Great Lakes -- and this allows it to develop because it swings through the Plains and the Midwest and it has a better chance to gather significant moisture bought time and reaches. the East Coast The arctic front continues to sink southward and there may be a significant LOW pressure development on the gulf coast along the arctic front JAN 27-28 that could become a significant East Coast snowstorm JAN 28-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 18 z GEFS is also pretty bearish on Jan 25-26th. Basically none if its members look like the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looking through the 0z and 12z euro op and ensemble indices caught my eye. There was a noteworthy trend toward towards a -ao/nao combo. Gfs and gefs have the trend but not as obvious as the euro. We've been talking about lack of blocking constantly but now I'm not totally sold that we won't have Atlantic help this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looking through the 0z and 12z euro op and ensemble indices caught my eye. There was a noteworthy trend toward towards a -ao/nao combo. Gfs and gefs have the trend but not as obvious as the euro. We've been talking about lack of blocking constantly but now I'm not totally sold that we won't have Atlantic help this month. yep, I'd have to agree Bob on the help idea but disagree that GFS ain't showing it so much http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z gfs op doesnt connect the ns and ss energy next week. This run will make no friends. Players on the field but they aren't a team this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z gfs op doesnt connect the ns and ss energy next week. This run will make no friends. Players on the field but they aren't a team this go around Back to the awful qpfless runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z gfs op doesnt connect the ns and ss energy next week. This run will make no friends. Players on the field but they aren't a team this go around you could see early on that the ns was not pressing SE, but ESE if it presses more south as it did on earlier runs, result is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Back to the awful qpfless runsAt least it's gonna be cold. But probably not Weatherbell cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Back to the awful qpfless runs I totally expect a roller coaster. Phasing ns and ss energy at long leads is never fun. If it's not there at 5 day leads the big red panic button will be flashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 We always trend the wrong way. The weekend clippers are a joke. The jan 21-22 event has vanished. We never lose a modeled rainstorm ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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