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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Boy, you would never guess that Richmond was part of the MA forum.  And while VB and the southeast isn't "technically" in, you would think that the NVa folks could handle being skipped a little better than this.  Thanks for the best wishes. 

 

This forum should really be called the DC forum, to be honest.

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Tisk tisk....We shouldn't be posting old images and pretending it's a model run for tomorrow or implying that a model run is good, when in fact it isn't. People are still learning on this board and can be confused :)

I'm not really learning or confused...I'm just a drunk tool sometimes

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Tisk tisk....We shouldn't be posting old images and pretending it's a model run for tomorrow or implying that a model run is good, when in fact it isn't. People are still learning on this board and can be confused :)

I don't mind a little teasing, it's part of the culture here and the newbies will figure it out.

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I am sure I will get blasted on this but I have been watching a little NW push in the subtopics on the Atlantic Satellite. When I said it last night that I thought this storm would move further northwest than the models indicated it was based on this WAH-(hunch). I may be completely insane but I am keeping one foot in the door that this storm gets at least a little push NW and we will get a little bit out of it at a minimum!

Mark

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I understand.  But everyone here loves snow.  I just can't understand why someone would root for someone else to get shafted.  I'll just go back to reading and get thicker skin I guess.

Snow is IMBY unless it's like 12 feet or something.  I'm not going to be upset if they score or anything but I'd rather it be me.  The southern VA crew has more or less secluded themselves over the years tho as people like Matt have pointed out our forum has huge disparities in winter climo so it only makes sense some of us chat with eachother more than others I suppose.  

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GEFS likes 2/8-9...DT "coincidentally" is targeting that period

To be fair, when I posted my CWG this was his comment

 

"POSITIVE TNH patterns... in JAN & FEB cant beat em  

 

since I correctly foresaw the December 8 and 10th events back on NOV 29th... and the January 3 coastal Low back on December 24-25 ...the JAN 21 event back on JAN 15-16 -- see the VIDEO this week in WEATHER 16 JAN 2014... I will take a crack at the next two significant snow events. 

 

There are 2 possible events of concern over the next 2 weeks. the FIRST one is for January 28 29... will be a significant snowstorm for Southeast Virginia and the eastern portions of North and South Carolina but will probably be a MISS for everyone else north of the Chesapeake Bay 

 

There remains a very strong signal from the 12z GFS ensembles as well as the Euro ensembles and the last 7 days of the CFS of a major winter storm FEB 3-4-5 or FEB 4-5-6. Of course those dates always have historical significance and the history of northeast U.S. snowstorms features a lot of activity in that time frame over the past 50 years. 

 

But in this case the change in the pattern into a split flow regime as well as the strong and persistent signals from the CFS and now 12z GFS ensembles lead me to be quite bullish that this far out in time that a significant winter storm is likely for much of the middle Atlantic c states as well as the Tennessee Valley." 

 

I guess he has Feb 3-9 covered for a major winter storm.    I kind of think JB is right that we'll have to have a cutter or good OH valley low before we get the cold are back in. 

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I'll make a deal with all the SE guys. Next storm that crushes us and misses them they can root like hell that it misses mby. Even voodoo dolls and stuff. Because I'm pretty confident that rooting against someones yard and stuff can't change the outcome. 

 

 

I'm rooting for them...I always like when the south gets snow...It is 40N that enrages me....

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To be fair, when I posted my CWG this was his comment

 

"POSITIVE TNH patterns... in JAN & FEB cant beat em  

 

since I correctly foresaw the December 8 and 10th events back on NOV 29th... and the January 3 coastal Low back on December 24-25 ...the JAN 21 event back on JAN 15-16 -- see the VIDEO this week in WEATHER 16 JAN 2014... I will take a crack at the next two significant snow events. 

 

There are 2 possible events of concern over the next 2 weeks. the FIRST one is for January 28 29... will be a significant snowstorm for Southeast Virginia and the eastern portions of North and South Carolina but will probably be a MISS for everyone else north of the Chesapeake Bay 

 

There remains a very strong signal from the 12z GFS ensembles as well as the Euro ensembles and the last 7 days of the CFS of a major winter storm FEB 3-4-5 or FEB 4-5-6. Of course those dates always have historical significance and the history of northeast U.S. snowstorms features a lot of activity in that time frame over the past 50 years. 

 

But in this case the change in the pattern into a split flow regime as well as the strong and persistent signals from the CFS and now 12z GFS ensembles lead me to be quite bullish that this far out in time that a significant winter storm is likely for much of the middle Atlantic c states as well as the Tennessee Valley." 

 

I guess he has Feb 3-9 covered for a major winter storm.    I kind of think JB is right that we'll have to have a cutter or good OH valley low before we get the cold are back in. 

 

 

Thanks...I'm not loving the period...but it is such good climo for us, we can always score something with a marginal air mass

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Thanks...I'm not loving the period...but it is such good climo for us, we can always score something with a marginal air mass

there probably will be one winter event between Feb 1 and 10. Even the GFS showed a winter storm(the one DT is jumping on) and maybe we can pull some snow before the cutter moves west of us

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I'm rooting for them...I always like when the south gets snow...It is 40N that enrages me....

 

I'll root for anybody who doesn't normally get snow. I think my post came off wrong. I was trying to say that when I'm getting snow I could care less who roots against me. All subforums get peeved overall to some extent when they are just on the outside looking in. Like you, I'm pretty self centered with my yard here. I almost started a civil war by joking around though. That was funny in itself. 

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