ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I could see the models come further west with the precip shield. I mean 100 miles in one run isn't insignificant....Likely no dice, but it isn't like I have anything else going this week. I am still going to look at the models. The European ones are always the hottest. The short American ones never did it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ocean City/SE VA are not that far of a drive if anyone needs another snow fix. they only have like 3 plows so don't expect to drive back quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEFS looks good on the means. AOA for the from the 2nd-6th and solid below after through the end of the run. Looks more like the 5th is the end of the warmup fwiw. If it verifies it will be just another 3-5 day warm spell in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEFS looks good on the means. AOA for the from the 2nd-6th and solid below after through the end of the run. Yup, but it's a gradient pattern. Our NE friends are probably as giddy as we are gloomy. Big -WPO connecting into a probable -AO. As long as we can keep that gradient pressing south, we can do well, but it's a borderline thing as we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEFS looks good on the means. AOA for the from the 2nd-6th and solid below after through the end of the run. Looks more like the 5th is the end of the warmup fwiw. If it verifies it will be just another 3-5 day warm spell in between. It looks better than the EURO EPS. Some people hate the phrase "warm/wet, cold/dry" but this is pretty much the case on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEFS looks good on the means. AOA for the from the 2nd-6th and solid below after through the end of the run. Looks more like the 5th is the end of the warmup fwiw. If it verifies it will be just another 3-5 day warm spell in between. isnt the 5th when the Feb 4-5 "snowstorm" is suppose to end:)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yup, but it's a gradient pattern. Our NE friends are probably as giddy as we are gloomy. Big -WPO connecting into a probable -AO. As long as we can keep that gradient pressing south, we can do well, but it's a borderline thing as we know. I think the most significant piece of the look d11-16 is the ridging over socal. Centers the trough in the oh valley. We'll see. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I could see the models come further west with the precip shield. I mean 100 miles in one run isn't insignificant....Likely no dice, but it isn't like I have anything else going this week. I am still going to look at the models. to north for southern sliders....too south for Northern Stream Miller B's...too west for an out to sea coastal...too east for clippers(ok--that makes no sense but we are too something for clippers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 isnt the 5th when the Feb 4-5 "snowstorm" is suppose to end:)? Considering the euro op is now cold and dry on the 3rd....who knows man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Considering the euro op is now cold and dry on the 3rd....who knows man. lol is it really? what about the 4th and the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 lol is it really? what about the 4th and the 5th You don't want to know.... Big precip maker with huge snows in the midwest and a 1040+hp pushing down....but the heights in front spell trouble for us. It's a central IL destruction. Run isn't done yet but it's not going to work for us this time I dont think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's out to 204hr(2/4) and there is a solid low over Louisville which looks to go to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 See Bob. This is why we are pessimistic. I don't remember a storm in recent years on the models before 192 to go from a big rain maker to a good snowstorm. It always seems to happen the other way around. Give me some hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You don't want to know.... Big precip maker with huge snows in the midwest and a 1040+hp pushing down....but the heights in front spell trouble for us. It's a central IL destruction. Run isn't done yet but it's not going to work for us this time I dont think. Euro takes it right overhead while the GFS takes it up over Pittsburgh. I'd still watch it…all depends on how suppresive the PV over Eastern Canada will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 does it at least give us the usual front end mix before changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro takes it right overhead while the GFS takes it up over Pittsburgh. I'd still watch it…all depends on how suppresive the PV over Eastern Canada will be. About half the eps members had snow solutions for us overnight. Some solid strikes too. Considering how close this run is it wouldn't surprise me to see a bunch of members drop snow again. As it stands with the run we get clipped up front with an inch or 2. PA gets pummeled. Far from resolved for sure. We need to root for strong confluence. Verbatim it shows some pretty big hp pushing down from the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 does it at least give us the usual front end mix before changeover? Token T-2" I95 and west. North half of pa is crushed. And most of SNE of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Token T-2" I95 and west. North half of pa is crushed. And most of SNE of course. looks like it improved from last night. Winter cancel uncancel. Feb is going to rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 looks like it improved from last night. Winter cancel uncancel. Feb is going to rock A lot of things can make this work for us in some fashion. could be a nice front end to dryslot. could be a weaker wave that can't push as hard north. It's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Oh Bob, that's why we love you, models could show a week of 70's and sun and you would still have hope :-) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 A lot of things can make this work for us in some fashion. could be a nice front end to dryslot. could be a weaker wave that can't push as hard north. It's a good run. the models can't even decide what will happen mid week, why should we (and I don't mean anyone in particular) think that anything over the weekend and beyond is even close to being resolved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 the models can't even decide what will happen mid week, why should we (and I don't mean anyone in particular) think that anything over the weekend and beyond is even close to being resolved I want to be on the winning side as much as anyone but we're walking the line in this pattern. Can't do anything except watch it unfold. Euro is pretty cold across the conus by d9-10 too except for the far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anyone got a picture of the EURO? Stuck on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Anyone got a picture of the EURO? Stuck on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's a pretty significant expansion of the precip on the euro....I would consider it a win if some in the immediate DC area got an inch from this....I'm still watching from afar....and laughing at Ji lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's a pretty significant expansion of the precip on the euro....I would consider it a win if some in the immediate DC area got an inch from this....I'm still watching from afar....and laughing at Ji lol I think you would have to be down towards EZF and Wes to see an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think you would have to be down towards EZF and Wes to see an inch Maybe....but who knows...might have to be down in VAB for that...I consider Wes part of this immediate circle...I'm not using the normal boundaries...just the ones I made up in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Meh... 0.1 line is nearby on the 15z SREFs... prob 20-30 miles SE of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Remember this? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/history/hgt.ao.1990.gif The PV that winter split around this time then too and the AO continued to decline. Same thing happened in other +QBO winters with similar forcings. Winter is far from over you pansies. Mid-Feb should see all major teleconnections come in negative, even the NAO which should begin its decline after the relaxation period. 7 major waves will exist next week from China to here, which is high-frequency for winter. This is again looking like December. Matt's specific window for a storm is embedded within a time period that most of the analogs suggest gets interesting. Some had several small events, ending with a big show (mid Feb 62' to early March nor'easter), while others came close to something noteworthy (like 91' but it had a pattern that could have produced something better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Remember this? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/history/hgt.ao.1990.gif The PV that winter split around this time then too and the AO continued to decline. Same thing happened in other +QBO winters with similar forcings. Winter is far from over you pansies. Mid-Feb should see all major teleconnections come in negative, even the NAO which should begin its decline after the relaxation period. 7 major waves will exist next week from China to here, which is high-frequency for winter. This is again looking like December. Matt's specific window for a storm is embedded within a time period that most of the analogs suggest gets interesting. Some had several small events, ending with a big show (mid Feb 62' to early March nor'easter), while others came close to something noteworthy (like 91' but it had a pattern that could have produced something better). Pansies has always been a great word...lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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