yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Meh... 0.1 line is nearby on the 15z SREFs... prob 20-30 miles SE of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Remember this? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/history/hgt.ao.1990.gif The PV that winter split around this time then too and the AO continued to decline. Same thing happened in other +QBO winters with similar forcings. Winter is far from over you pansies. Mid-Feb should see all major teleconnections come in negative, even the NAO which should begin its decline after the relaxation period. 7 major waves will exist next week from China to here, which is high-frequency for winter. This is again looking like December. Matt's specific window for a storm is embedded within a time period that most of the analogs suggest gets interesting. Some had several small events, ending with a big show (mid Feb 62' to early March nor'easter), while others came close to something noteworthy (like 91' but it had a pattern that could have produced something better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Remember this? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/history/hgt.ao.1990.gif The PV that winter split around this time then too and the AO continued to decline. Same thing happened in other +QBO winters with similar forcings. Winter is far from over you pansies. Mid-Feb should see all major teleconnections come in negative, even the NAO which should begin its decline after the relaxation period. 7 major waves will exist next week from China to here, which is high-frequency for winter. This is again looking like December. Matt's specific window for a storm is embedded within a time period that most of the analogs suggest gets interesting. Some had several small events, ending with a big show (mid Feb 62' to early March nor'easter), while others came close to something noteworthy (like 91' but it had a pattern that could have produced something better). Pansies has always been a great word...lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm back in on the midweek deal. SREFs look better last 2 runs, NAM is close, Canadian looks good, and even the EURO expanded west with a 100 mile area of flurries. Yeah, I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm in too. But I want another 75 miles to the west by 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Euro ens mean looks identical to the operational in terms of the western extent of the precip shield Thats good at least to see some flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DT just "woofed" for feb 8/9 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 LWX seems to like our chances tomorrow night in St. Mary's. 50% in central St. Mary's and 60% in the southern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think it implies light snow for me and you since we are well east of the western extent...maybe a cartopper to 1/2" as modeled I think we would want a bit more of a westward trend of the QPF shield (like 25-50 more miles) to see more than a dusting/cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I dont know if its cause its cold, but I am feeling that we will see some love with either the 18z NAM or the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 WSW for NOLA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 JMA is looking pretty wintry later in the run and usually the model runs warm. Has a system Feb 2 that would be snow. Then at hour 192..has a 994 low in NE Texas but plenty of HP to our north which would imply maybe a thump of snow at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We're close http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We're close http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif close only counts in horseshoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We're close http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif I don't know why nws thinks snow can accumulate in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Touché. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GEFS likes 2/8-9...DT "coincidentally" is targeting that period I'm in. My bday always brings snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm in. My bday always brings snow threats. odd are pretty good too. 50/50. It either snows or it doesn't. You better hope it does or the MA is going to hate your birthday for the rest of your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm in. My bday always brings snow threats. when is the last time we got snow on Feb 8 and 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 close only counts in horseshoes ...and hand grenades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 when is the last time we got snow on Feb 8 and 9? 2011 and 2010 on the 9th. It's at the tail end of our best climo tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 JMA is looking pretty wintry later in the run and usually the model runs warm. Has a system Feb 2 that would be snow. Then at hour 192..has a 994 low in NE Texas but plenty of HP to our north which would imply maybe a thump of snow at the start forgot about mid week on the JMA http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 forgot about mid week on the JMA http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif I weep looking down at NC and seeing those purples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM likes the idea of snow ponies on Assateague. Would make for nice pics.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nobody gonna comment on how good the NAM looks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nobody gonna comment on how good the NAM looks? nearest accumulating snow is a few hours drive away...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 nearest accumulating snow is a few hours drive away...... I was being sarcastic. I can't believe anybody thought this was gonna do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 for NC? Exactly........the only place that was ever getting snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'll be happy with a sweepable dusting.. .. seeing if this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 pretty disgusting that once again, the south will get a better snowstorm than the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.