84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GGEM actually gets us into a little something on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm going to try and appreciate that we have gotten a little better each year the last 3 winters, and hope for 10" and that the next one is better.....DC gets snow in February 85% of the time...and FMA, 90% of the time.,..Hopefully it will be of the 1"+variety and not the 0.3" variety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This was relaxation was expected. The flattening PNA ridge has been well advertised, we never have had any meaningful blocking and still no sign of it, and the AO is headed positive for early Feb. The pattern is setting up to be a milder one for a time, and we will see what happens after that. My guess is Feb overall ends up normal, and we get some shots with an active ss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'd say let's wait until the end of next week before we start with the despondency. Models have been changing the medium range with just about every run. I still have some faith in a rockin early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 the curse of the HM storm If I could throw something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 onto next winter with maybe an El Nino. We are going to do an entire winter without a -NAO. Pretty impressive that we finished the year with near normal snow If only you would be near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Day 10 progs not working out? Shocker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'd say let's wait until the end of next week before we start with the despondency. Models have been changing the medium range with just about every run. I still have some faith in a rockin early Feb. We really blow around in the wind a lot. Weren't we just talking about an epic Feb a day or two ago? I don't see any reason to abandon all hope…or really any hope of a solid respectable February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If only you would be near normal. and half the other members in our forum, good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Day 10 progs not working out? Shocker.. Right? People looking at day 10 stuff as gospel, regardless of what it says or how much agreement there is, is kind of ridiculous. Until we get exascale computing, models past day 4-5 are always going to be subject to extreme variation and inaccuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 its every model... it's one day's worth of runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One mild day, disappearing snow-pack...lots of testiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Right? People looking at day 10 stuff as gospel, regardless of what it says or how much agreement there is, is kind of ridiculous. Until we get exascale computing, models past day 4-5 are always going to be subject to extreme variation and inaccuracy. Ensemble guidance has been pretty good this year at longer leads. Run to run is always bouncy but overall relaxations and reloads have been modeled pretty well in the d10-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really blow around in the wind a lot. Weren't we just talking about an epic Feb a day or two ago? I don't see any reason to abandon all hope…or really any hope of a solid respectable February. I swear half the people in here are bi-polar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I swear half the people in here are bi-polar. Thats the mildest form of mental illness found on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I swear half the people in here are bi-polar. get out of my head (see banter thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I like the late season stuff, but most people dont care for it It's cool if it's legit. The late Mar storm was neat last year. I don't need 1/2" events in March though. Feb has truly been feast or famine here of late so it's a little frustrating seeing the pattern "fall apart." That said, two "shovelable" snows in DC is way better than recent winters if for some reason we didn't get another. Another would make it pretty passable overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One mild day, disappearing snow-pack...lots of testiness. Not from me. I want to be able to ride my bike to work, so I'm ready for the W&OD trail to lose its snow and ice pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What if this becomes the next March 2010? Remember when nearly every forecaster (don S, usedtobe, etc) expected a repeat of feb 2010? Given that we've been getting regular dumps from the Arctic since November I have a hard time seeing March be a giant torch but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One mild day, disappearing snow-pack...lots of testiness. The warmer it gets, the more snow to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That moment when people with 80-125% of entire seasonal climo shower us with wisdom...I dont recall any of this in 2011-12, but maybe I am forgetting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That moment when people with 80-125% of entire seasonal climo shower us with wisdom...I dont recall any of this in 2011-12, but maybe I am forgetting move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 move north See? Wisdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This looks like a banter thread more than anything right now.... Because the pattern (apparently) sucks. Per the models.Today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If I could throw something.... you can....a tantrum like JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I recall a lot of dire doom and gloom in late December too... just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I recall a lot of dire doom and gloom in late December too... just sayin There you go! Although this forum is very informative and useful, it's unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Call me a wishcasting model huggin weenie, but I dont think thats a bad look on the 12z GFS for next Tuesday, right before truncation. Goes all to hell after that, but with the crapola resolution beyond hr 192, I pay it no mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Fozz, the difference now is when you give up the 1st week of February you are on borrowed time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The EURO ensembles have been pretty consistent in showing positive 850 tempersture anomalies during the 1st week of FEB. Initially this was a short period but has extended until nearly the end of it's forecast period. It has trended warmer too. I think this is telling of our upcoming pattern and it's lack of favorability in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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