Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 They do for North Jersey which is where he lives...very nice post, but of no use to us... I agree that further north is clearly favored but disagree about the post being no use to us. The position of the pv in se canda is pretty important. If we're going to get a cross country vort track to stay below us this is the feature that will keep it below us. Confluence is necessary at our latitude without preferred blocking. As phin said, epic patterns are very rare. The progged pattern is definitely not epic for the ma. But its not a bad pattern. If there's a neutral vort south of our latitude over the MS river with a pv in se Canada does happen we'll all be drooling over our 3-6 and not care about nyc's 30-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Fun fact: 14 of DCA's last 30 Febs have had less than 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Fun fact: 14 of DCA's last 30 Febs have had less than 1" of snow. So, Greater than 50% chance of over an inch! YES!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z GFS looks great if you like desert conditions.. the most consistent I've seen it in months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z GFS looks great if you like desert conditions.. the most consistent I've seen it in months. Payback for there now being four weather channels. Most boring decade ever ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Fun fact: 14 of DCA's last 30 Febs have had less than 1" of snow. Rhetorical, but how is that fun? Now use your stat stuff to tell me how this really plays out. Are we getting a KU this year or not? Statistically speaking, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Payback for there now being four weather channels. Most boring decade ever ahead. I only get one Weather Nation , maybe i will get rewarded with Ji's 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 0z GFS looks great if you like desert conditions.. the most consistent I've seen it in months. Worst run of the season and its had a lot of bad runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Rhetorical, but how is that fun? Now use your stat stuff to tell me how this really plays out. Are we getting a KU this year or not? Statistically speaking, of course. In DC and Balt I gotta think not. We're well on our way to another bad winter in this neck of the woods at least. I mean, it can be fixed pretty quick but I think persistence in short, long, and forever term argues against it (a KU) at least IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Tho should clarify. I don't think a bad winter is a foregone conclusion. We aren't in the worst shape ever at this pt. I'd be gunning for another event that gives me 3.5" over anything else for now. We should probably have a subforum edict to not refer to averages.. At least in DC they don't really tell you what to expect anymore if ever. Expectations in the city should realistically be about a half foot lower per season than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 In DC and Balt I gotta think not. We're well on our way to another bad winter in this neck of the woods at least. I mean, it can be fixed pretty quick but I think persistence in short, long, and forever term argues against it (a KU) at least IMBY. I should have looked at the norm Feb for DCA. I'm guessing, but what is it? Maybe 5"? Whether it's over or under, I wonder that it isn't impressive when one considers the initial statement you made. It seems it's feast or famine for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I should have looked at the norm Feb for DCA. I'm guessing, but what is it? Maybe 5"? Whether it's over or under, I wonder that it isn't impressive when one considers the initial statement you made. It seems it's feast or famine for the MA. It's 5.7" officially but last 30 it's 4.9". Removing 10 and 03 which are huge outliers even among the big Febs of late it's more like 3-3.5" with a median in the same range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Worst run of the season and its had a lot of bad runs Cold and mood flakes every 48 hrs till 168... that's a bad run? I like the last week of Jan setup.. seems consistent in the large scale. Perfect for the MA? No. But I'll take it over 75% of other possible solutions for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's 5.7" officially but last 30 it's 4.9". Removing 10 and 03 which are huge outliers even among the big Febs of late it's more like 3-3.5" with a median in the same range. 3.25'ish? Ballpark same latitude, what is that, Salisbury? Even Ocean City? Windmills offshore? Sorry, I'm bantering. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 euro tuesday, heartbreaker - 2-3" Mixy coastal at day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 euro tuesday, heartbreaker - 2-3" Mixy coastal at day 9 Tom Tasselmyer on Channel 11 here in Baltimore is very conservative but on tonight's newscast he already started honking about the Tuesday storm. He rarely honks 6 days out so i am getting a little excited that maybe we get something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 (Joe Bastardi: "Economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US.") https://twitter.com/SwellTheChorus/status/423555797700730881 The CONUS might see mean January temperatures of -1F, which will prove globular worming is a lie! DCA January temp departure forecast: -1.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 euro tuesday, heartbreaker - 2-3" Mixy coastal at day 9 normally, I would get more excited but the reason why it improved for us is that it became....yep, more progressive if things follow the script for most of this winter, the system will fly by us with only flurries (at best) hopefully, this is the exception Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 At least it showed something. I am amused every time we get an epic pattern post somewhere the gfs responds with a barren wasteland run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 They do for North Jersey which is where he lives...very nice post, but of no use to us... No use? How so...He is discussing the large scale pattern and how it may evolve. I thought it was a pretty well done analysis of how this pattern may play out, and if it goes anything like the guidance is advertising, even DC will have some good ops to get out of its snowless funk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 No use? How so...He is discussing the large scale pattern and how it may evolve. I thought it was a pretty well done analysis of how this pattern may play out, and if it goes anything like the guidance is advertising, even DC will have some good ops to get out of its snowless funk. Pessimism pays off 99% of the time in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looks like we're getting our modeled snow now...lol I scanned over everything and while not perfect it's still a pretty good progression imo for some chances. We're stuck in a tightly spaced amplified pattern with fast moving and relatively dry vorts through mid next week. Trough in the east broadens and it looks like the gulf will possibly be tapped. Going forward there is a lot of cold to the north and op and ens runs show plenty of moisture across the south. GEFS members have some pretty wet solutions and the op runs are starting to show this as well. Arctic boundary won't be static. It will retreat and press with reinforcing cold shots from what I see. Would could poorly time something and end up wet before we get cold/dry but we could also time moisture streaming up from the ms valley into cold air. Who knows really. Just speculation. Any big wrapped up storms are likely to be miller B's and we know those problems. Could also have stuff cut to the west or overhead with no block. At least it looks like cold holds overhead and nearby for a week to 10 days and there are growing signs of gulf and split flow. Should be a fun week or 2 with plenty of rollercoaster threats. Euro ensembles have been very steady with the lw pattern from mid next week on. Once the pna retros we'll have much better chances at an accum event. Looks like places north might get pounded. We're used to that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Ideally there would be some accountability for this hyperbole when that doesn't pan out. The potential for making money off the financial markets is large if u have clout or media access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This pattern that looks to set up starting middle of next week is really interesting and it looks really good. The best pattern we've seen in a while probably, so we will have shots of snow. It's going to take time for the models to pinpoint storms and get them right, so sit back and wait. It's a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 almost none of the analogs showing up had decent snow events....I think this is more of a cold pattern than snow one...hopefully get an event or 2 that is more than a cartopper, but I doubt I get any event more than 1-3" IMBY before end of January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 almost none of the analogs showing up had decent snow events....I think this is more of a cold pattern than snow one...hopefully get an event or 2 that is more than a cartopper, but I doubt I get any event more than 1-3" IMBY before end of January... well, my hope, fwiw, is that this pattern is still in transition and by the time we hit the 10-15 day analog period we will be out of this pattern if it was stable pattern or the pattern we were transitioning to, then I'd have less hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 well, my hope, fwiw, is that this pattern is still in transition and by the time we hit the 10-15 day analog period we will be out of this pattern if it was stable pattern or the pattern we were transitioning to, then I'd have less hope yeah..but I am also looking at 11-15 day analogs...The type of pattern that is consistently being advertised, usually won't bring us anything more than a small snowfall..which is fine...1-3/2-4 to me is most likely with localized higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This is why I don't get all excited when 40N people wax about an "epic" pattern NYC average snow - 25.1", My average snow - 17.7" 2012-13: NYC - 26.1", IMBY - 5.0" 2010-11: NYC - 61.9", IMBY - 12.5" 2008-09: NYC - 27.6", IMBY - 10.25" 2005-06: NYC - 40.0", IMBY - 17.5" 2004-05: NYC - 41.0", IMBY - 17.0" 2003-04: NYC - 42.6", IMBY - 13.5" 2000-01: NYC - 35.0", IMBY - 9.0" Now of course there are years where we are closer or I beat them,...I cherry picked... but often recently there is no "WE"..."we" means failure for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 yeah..but I am also looking at 11-15 day analogs...The type of pattern that is consistently being advertised, usually won't bring us anything more than a small snowfall..which is fine...1-3/2-4 to me is most likely with localized higher... Kinda standard jan fare so hardly a shocker. I remember very few big jan storms but plenty of small ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 almost none of the analogs showing up had decent snow events....I think this is more of a cold pattern than snow one...hopefully get an event or 2 that is more than a cartopper, but I doubt I get any event more than 1-3" IMBY before end of January... Yup, I guess cold and dry is better than warm and dry? I mean-- it feels like winter and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.