SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. Yeah it is, not envious of you, NAM gets a decent scraping for the southern half of the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. Hope you get a few inches. Salisbury is an awful place for snow in general. Either too warm or fringed or dry slotted more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 DC to Philly is going to be in the "it could go either way" zone for this upcoming pattern. With the PNA going negative the trough axis is going to shift west. However, the AO looks to stay fairly negative as well and the CONUS is flooded with cold air so its not a lost cause, there will be plenty of cold around available if we can get any of the waves riding the boundary to stay south. What is going to determine how this ends up for the Mid Atlantic will be if we can get ANY help from the other indices. Either the NAO or the EPO could do the trick. The trend warmer yesterday was due to the EPO trending back towards neutral...with a -PNA and no help from the NAO that wont work. We either need the EPO to help us out OR the NAO. If either of those can get their act together some of these waves will likely slide under a pressing cold air mass. If both do us no good, this is probably going to be a great pattern for Binghamtom NY and wet for the mid atl. The models have been shifting all over with where to go with this so I doubt anything is settled yet. My gut says the GFS is more right then the euro. It's impossible to know where we sit. To add to your post, CPC d8+ and d11+ are full of all types of solutions. Snow, freezing rain, rain, and all of the above for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If the NAM is correct it would be fun to go down to Assateague Island, do some XC skiing on the beaches maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Weirdly, I root for DCA because I root for Matt, and H20 and Ian and Wes and others to do just as well as I am. And I want to do even better up my way, it's just how I am. So, yeah, a juicy southern system that dumps snow down in the coastal Carolina area and misses us is annoying to me. The clipper-on-steroids or whatever that was last week was an awesome surprise and a fun event, but I happen to really enjoy the moisture laden southern storms that dump qpf in the form of snow over us. The one last week was still moisture starved, but saved by ratios. It is what it is. This should all be in banter. I have confessed to being a snow dick over there. I get your point. But the southern stream looks to be active through February. We will get our chances before this winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. just stick with the NAM.....or toss it to the evening shift lol never mind, you probably want to keep your job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, tomorrow we 'll know how New England felt in feb 2010 oh you don't need to go that far north to feel the pain from 2010. the snow dome that year started in in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I get your point. But the southern stream looks to be active through February. We will get our chances before this winter is over. Did we all freek out in the early dec, pre-xmas, and mid jan warm spell? We got snow during the reload after each. It's hard to think otherwise unless it appears everything is breaking down which it clearly doesn't attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 in my mind, there's some good news both 1/03 and 1/10 featured decent southern snow storms that gave snow to the shores of VA & NC while we all whined after that, we had great FEBs if history repeats, I think this represents the peak of the arctic intrusions down south for the winter and we will do better from here (not necessarily as the FEBs that followed those winters, but OK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did we all freek out in the early dec, pre-xmas, and mid jan warm spell? We got snow during the reload after each. It's hard to think otherwise unless it appears everything is breaking down which it clearly doesn't attm. Exactly. Just give me an active southern stream with some HP to the north and I'm happy. Its really all we can ask for. Will some of the storms be rain or ice. Sure. But some COULD be snow. At this point I am all about getting a big event before the winter is done. Thats only gonna happen with an active southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More interestingly on the nam there's a new band of precip across south west and south central Virginia. That's the one to watch for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 People south of here don't deserve snow. I'd rather see mt tolland jackpot. Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did we all freek out in the early dec, pre-xmas, and mid jan warm spell? We got snow during the reload after each. It's hard to think otherwise unless it appears everything is breaking down which it clearly doesn't attm. Part of the problem is only the Fall line and NW folks did well in December. So for many here its just been the 2 events in January. I think I had 1.5 inches in December, but I'm not complaining. January has been great, as I like having snow on the ground for a week, and I like the bitter cold(to an extent). The mindset is different for those that are still well under climo, and now they see a possible return to a pattern that may produce for the N MD crew, but the DC area maybe not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 in my mind, there's some good news both 1/03 and 1/10 featured decent southern snow storms that gave snow to the shores of VA & NC while we all whined after that, we had great FEBs if history repeats, I think this represents the peak of the arctic intrusions down south for the winter and we will do better from here (not necessarily as the FEBs that followed those winters, but OK) I'm expecting -20s in March don't declare January over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More interestingly on the nam there's a new band of precip across south west and south central Virginia. That's the one to watch for dc. Yeah, that was quite a big shift in the NW extent of the precip from 6z. I'd be real happy if we could keep the trend going and get a surprise 1-2 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm expecting -20s in March don't declare January over yet remind me why you're here again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 remind me why you're here again?Mostly just to own you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Mostly just to own you I knew the walking on water thing would go to your head, just knew it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 People south of here don't deserve snow. I'd rather see mt parkton jackpot. Climo. me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ahem... getting close 48 hrs. RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 36 hr. RGEM in case you wondered what it looked like before the map above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RGEM supporting the NW movement of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 These southern storms often foreshadow fun for us a few days / weeks later. OBX cashed in around this time in 2003. And central VA was the jackpot 1.30.10 with 15" some places...only to be beat badly 7 days later 100 miles further north. Lots of potential if Wednesday is a swing and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 give it up(wednesday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 give it up(wednesday) frankly, I more or less had but the RGEM makes it close again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 give it up(wednesday) Not with the NAM/RGEM trending closer to DC. If the GFS weenies out at 12z definitely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 High res rgem stripes 95 with .02 - .04 ETA: pics are better. Wes approves of this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 High res rgem stripes 95 with .02 - .04 Good ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Good ratios? Damn right. 40:1 odds that we get SnowTV™ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Damn right. 40:1 odds that we get SnowTV™ Here in Greenbelt they are getting in urgent need of a snowpack refresher. Not quite so urgent in Columbia, but certainly by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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