mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 but most of that precip is from the rain next week and early next week. You take that out and its below normal precip you don't know that to be the case now you're just looking for an excuse to be negative dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm not sure what everybody is expecting. We are definitely getting s warmer period in early Feb. It's been talked about for a while now. Whether it's 3 or 5 or even 7 days, we just don't know. All guidance points to below normal again inside of 2 weeks. Broad conus trough and now weak ridging along socal is showing on the means. -Epo runs the whole period and some blocking (not optimal) has been showing for days. Feb is not going to be door to door cold at all. Even if we get snow it's prob not going to stick on the ground for a week. We're most likely past that part of the year. Just focus on the weekend wave. It's not resolved at all. If the next week's storm is strong it's going to cut. Any wrapped up storm is going to cut for a while. Just root for weaker solutions, hp pressing, and more zonal flow for now. I'm glad we're most likely getting the warmer period out of the way early in the month. This is the 3rd time this winter we've seen ridging in the east as everything reloads. I'm not sure why there is so much negative talk. I should probably take a break from this thread until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 but most of that precip is from the rain next week and early next week. You take that out and its below normal precipTrue those maps dont mean snow necessarily. We could have 2 massive 45 degree rainstorms and 3 weeks of dry cold and verify that without a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bob, I think people are negative because on the models we are getting warm with a storm around. At least that is how I feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Bob, I think people are negative because on the models we are getting warm with a storm around. At least that is how I feel At 6-10 day leads nothing is resolved. We're on the edge here. We'll probably see a bunch of flips this week. Some great, some notsomuch. Maybe I'm the only one expecting it. Our chances of snow on any storm from the weekend through mid next week are 50/50 at best. And we'll have no idea for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 True those maps dont mean snow necessarily. We could have 2 massive 45 degree rainstorms and 3 weeks of dry cold and verify that without a flake. Yes, theoretically it's possible, but warm/wet, cold/dry mantra aside, how likely is that to actually happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like 12Z NAM is going to try to tease those to the S/E of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DC to Philly is going to be in the "it could go either way" zone for this upcoming pattern. With the PNA going negative the trough axis is going to shift west. However, the AO looks to stay fairly negative as well and the CONUS is flooded with cold air so its not a lost cause, there will be plenty of cold around available if we can get any of the waves riding the boundary to stay south. What is going to determine how this ends up for the Mid Atlantic will be if we can get ANY help from the other indices. Either the NAO or the EPO could do the trick. The trend warmer yesterday was due to the EPO trending back towards neutral...with a -PNA and no help from the NAO that wont work. We either need the EPO to help us out OR the NAO. If either of those can get their act together some of these waves will likely slide under a pressing cold air mass. If both do us no good, this is probably going to be a great pattern for Binghamtom NY and wet for the mid atl. The models have been shifting all over with where to go with this so I doubt anything is settled yet. My gut says the GFS is more right then the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yes, theoretically it's possible, but warm/wet, cold/dry mantra aside, how likely is that to actually happen? depends... January it would be very hard to do, but February, got to remember the avg highs start creeping up the second half of the month. You can be below normal in DC and still not cold enough for snow. Its unlikely but wouldn't be unheard of to end the month -2 temps but below normal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12Z NAM says road trip to Ocean City. Came in a good bit NW of 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 My bar is one more area wide moderate event. I think we have a shot at that. It has been a real winter so far for us NW'ers. I am ok with a long weekend of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. Yeah, I'd say. surprised how far NW the NAM came in. It's a pretty good hit for the lower eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. Yeah it is, not envious of you, NAM gets a decent scraping for the southern half of the eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. Hope you get a few inches. Salisbury is an awful place for snow in general. Either too warm or fringed or dry slotted more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 DC to Philly is going to be in the "it could go either way" zone for this upcoming pattern. With the PNA going negative the trough axis is going to shift west. However, the AO looks to stay fairly negative as well and the CONUS is flooded with cold air so its not a lost cause, there will be plenty of cold around available if we can get any of the waves riding the boundary to stay south. What is going to determine how this ends up for the Mid Atlantic will be if we can get ANY help from the other indices. Either the NAO or the EPO could do the trick. The trend warmer yesterday was due to the EPO trending back towards neutral...with a -PNA and no help from the NAO that wont work. We either need the EPO to help us out OR the NAO. If either of those can get their act together some of these waves will likely slide under a pressing cold air mass. If both do us no good, this is probably going to be a great pattern for Binghamtom NY and wet for the mid atl. The models have been shifting all over with where to go with this so I doubt anything is settled yet. My gut says the GFS is more right then the euro. It's impossible to know where we sit. To add to your post, CPC d8+ and d11+ are full of all types of solutions. Snow, freezing rain, rain, and all of the above for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If the NAM is correct it would be fun to go down to Assateague Island, do some XC skiing on the beaches maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Weirdly, I root for DCA because I root for Matt, and H20 and Ian and Wes and others to do just as well as I am. And I want to do even better up my way, it's just how I am. So, yeah, a juicy southern system that dumps snow down in the coastal Carolina area and misses us is annoying to me. The clipper-on-steroids or whatever that was last week was an awesome surprise and a fun event, but I happen to really enjoy the moisture laden southern storms that dump qpf in the form of snow over us. The one last week was still moisture starved, but saved by ratios. It is what it is. This should all be in banter. I have confessed to being a snow dick over there. I get your point. But the southern stream looks to be active through February. We will get our chances before this winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is going to be a VERY interesting and challenging forecast for me here along the eastern shore. just stick with the NAM.....or toss it to the evening shift lol never mind, you probably want to keep your job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, tomorrow we 'll know how New England felt in feb 2010 oh you don't need to go that far north to feel the pain from 2010. the snow dome that year started in in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I get your point. But the southern stream looks to be active through February. We will get our chances before this winter is over. Did we all freek out in the early dec, pre-xmas, and mid jan warm spell? We got snow during the reload after each. It's hard to think otherwise unless it appears everything is breaking down which it clearly doesn't attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 in my mind, there's some good news both 1/03 and 1/10 featured decent southern snow storms that gave snow to the shores of VA & NC while we all whined after that, we had great FEBs if history repeats, I think this represents the peak of the arctic intrusions down south for the winter and we will do better from here (not necessarily as the FEBs that followed those winters, but OK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did we all freek out in the early dec, pre-xmas, and mid jan warm spell? We got snow during the reload after each. It's hard to think otherwise unless it appears everything is breaking down which it clearly doesn't attm. Exactly. Just give me an active southern stream with some HP to the north and I'm happy. Its really all we can ask for. Will some of the storms be rain or ice. Sure. But some COULD be snow. At this point I am all about getting a big event before the winter is done. Thats only gonna happen with an active southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More interestingly on the nam there's a new band of precip across south west and south central Virginia. That's the one to watch for dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 People south of here don't deserve snow. I'd rather see mt tolland jackpot. Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Did we all freek out in the early dec, pre-xmas, and mid jan warm spell? We got snow during the reload after each. It's hard to think otherwise unless it appears everything is breaking down which it clearly doesn't attm. Part of the problem is only the Fall line and NW folks did well in December. So for many here its just been the 2 events in January. I think I had 1.5 inches in December, but I'm not complaining. January has been great, as I like having snow on the ground for a week, and I like the bitter cold(to an extent). The mindset is different for those that are still well under climo, and now they see a possible return to a pattern that may produce for the N MD crew, but the DC area maybe not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 in my mind, there's some good news both 1/03 and 1/10 featured decent southern snow storms that gave snow to the shores of VA & NC while we all whined after that, we had great FEBs if history repeats, I think this represents the peak of the arctic intrusions down south for the winter and we will do better from here (not necessarily as the FEBs that followed those winters, but OK) I'm expecting -20s in March don't declare January over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 More interestingly on the nam there's a new band of precip across south west and south central Virginia. That's the one to watch for dc. Yeah, that was quite a big shift in the NW extent of the precip from 6z. I'd be real happy if we could keep the trend going and get a surprise 1-2 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm expecting -20s in March don't declare January over yet remind me why you're here again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 remind me why you're here again?Mostly just to own you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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