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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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I am more worried about losing the boundary battle on the more juiced systems next weekend and the day 8-10 system and wasting the moisture on rain after all the cold. 

 

Also, it's gonna be annoying when coastal carolina has double DCA's snowfall total on the year and also exceeds BWI's seasonal snowfall total by Wednesday night...

 

There is a long time to go before these modeled storms come to fruition.  Since we can't control any of it just sit back and let it all unfold and take whatever comes.

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meanwhile, if you can believe it, CFS2 went even colder and wetter from yesterday on FEB's forecast!

in fact, it can't get any wetter under its categories and is one category away from its coldest category....crazy

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

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I am more worried about losing the boundary battle on the more juiced systems next weekend and the day 8-10 system and wasting the moisture on rain after all the cold. 

 

Also, it's gonna be annoying when coastal carolina has double DCA's snowfall total on the year and also exceeds BWI's seasonal snowfall total by Wednesday night...

 

So what? How often do they get to see significant snow? Almost never? Let them have it, cause after this, we'll have much more opportunity for snow than they do.

 

Same thing happened in January 2003 when the Outer Banks got a foot of snow while we were high and dry. They probably exceeded DCA's total to date after the storm. Then there was a rainstorm in early Feb 2003... imagine the weenie meltdowns back then :lol:

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meanwhile, if you can believe it, CFS2 went even colder and wetter from yesterday on FEB's forecast!

in fact, it can't get any wetter under its categories and is one category away from its coldest category....crazy

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

Thats wicked. After our BRIEF relaxation in the cold, bring on the -AO -NAO with southern stream. 

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meanwhile, if you can believe it, CFS2 went even colder and wetter from yesterday on FEB's forecast!

in fact, it can't get any wetter under its categories and is one category away from its coldest category....crazy

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

 

Incredible. I'll be back from upstate NY on Thursday, so bring it on!

If that verifies, then temperature-wise, we'd be seeing a repeat of Feb 2007. Get that with the very wet anomalies, then whoa :o

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There is a long time to go before these modeled storms come to fruition.  Since we can't control any of it just sit back and let it all unfold and take whatever comes.

 

Well, yeah. Sun rises in the east and all that...c'mon H2O, we've been down this road before. It's a weather board. We discuss things we have no control over.

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So what? How often do they get to see significant snow? Almost never? Let them have it, cause after this, we'll have much more opportunity for snow than they do.

 

Same thing happened in January 2003 when the Outer Banks got a foot of snow while we were high and dry. They probably exceeded DCA's total to date after the storm. Then there was a rainstorm in early Feb 2003... imagine the weenie meltdowns back then :lol:

I get to be annoyed at what I get to be annoyed at. Given that you have had like 3 feet of snow up your way in the Cockeysville area this winter, I can see you being more sanguine about it. But thanks for the officiousness.

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Well, yeah. Sun rises in the east and all that...c'mon H2O, we've been down this road before. It's a weather board. We discuss things we have no control over.

 

Of course we do but why get mad at it?  I'm just trying to keep perspective on all of it.  Yes it's been cold, many have seen snow with some getting more than others.  You have x2 my totals and if OBX and Norfolk get x2 of me then thats just the way it is.

 

I don't see the rain chances as an end all to winter so far.  even 09-10 had a rainer in between all the big snows.  

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Of course we do but why get mad at it?  I'm just trying to keep perspective on all of it.  Yes it's been cold, many have seen snow with some getting more than others.  You have x2 my totals and if OBX and Norfolk get x2 of me then thats just the way it is.

 

I don't see the rain chances as an end all to winter so far.  even 09-10 had a rainer in between all the big snows.

I would like at least one big snow. Plenty of chances for rain.

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Of course we do but why get mad at it?  I'm just trying to keep perspective on all of it.  Yes it's been cold, many have seen snow with some getting more than others.  You have x2 my totals and if OBX and Norfolk get x2 of me then thats just the way it is.

 

I don't see the rain chances as an end all to winter so far.  even 09-10 had a rainer in between all the big snows.  

I didn't say I was mad. Wtf? I also didn't say rain over the next 10 days was an end to winter. I did say if it plays out that way it will be disappointing to me given the freezer conditions we have been living in, to end up with rain to end it, instead of being on the snow side of a boundary. If it plays out like that, yes, it will be disappointing.

 

And, yes, 16 inches IMBY so far has been nice. I freely admit to, like a junkie, wanting more.

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I get to be annoyed at what I get to be annoyed at. Given that you have had like 3 feet of snow up your way in the Cockeysville area this winter, I can see you being more sanguine about it. But thanks for the officiousness.

 

Not quite, we do well, but it ain't Mt. Parkton.

You're had two significant storms this month (one of which I missed) and you're pretty close to reaching climo with 16" to date. Why does DCA matter to you? I doubt that anyone in the Carolinas outside the mountains will end up with more snow than you this winter.

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I get to be annoyed at what I get to be annoyed at. Given that you have had like 3 feet of snow up your way in the Cockeysville area this winter, I can see you being more sanguine about it. But thanks for the officiousness.

Agreed. Sorry, but there is a reason many of the places about to get a WSW criteria storm (for us, not just their WSW criteria) average less than 1" a year -- it's not supposed to snow there.

As Matt says...it's snow -- all I care about is my backyard. Not going to be pretend to be happy that some place that averages 0.8" a year is about to get hit while we remain high and dry.

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Not quite, we do well, but it ain't Mt. Parkton.

You're had two significant storms this month (one of which I missed) and you're pretty close to reaching climo with 16" to date. Why does DCA matter to you? I doubt that anyone in the Carolinas outside the mountains will end up with more snow than you this winter.

 

Weirdly, I root for DCA because I root for Matt, and H20 and Ian and Wes and others to do just as well as I am. And I want to do even better up my way, it's just how I am.

 

So, yeah, a juicy southern system that dumps snow down in the coastal Carolina area and misses us is annoying to me. The clipper-on-steroids or whatever that was last week was an awesome surprise and a fun event, but I happen to really enjoy the moisture laden southern storms that dump qpf in the form of snow over us. The one last week was still moisture starved, but saved by ratios. It is what it is. This should all be in banter. I have confessed to being a snow dick over there.

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Agreed. Sorry, but there is a reason many of the places about to get a WSW criteria storm (for us, not just their WSW criteria) average less than 1" a year -- it's not supposed to snow there.

As Matt says...it's snow -- all I care about is my backyard. Not going to be pretend to be happy that some place that averages 0.8" a year is about to get hit while we remain high and dry.

I think it's more of a "at least it's not NE or some other place that gets more than us."

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Not quite, we do well, but it ain't Mt. Parkton.

You're had two significant storms this month (one of which I missed) and you're pretty close to reaching climo with 16" to date. Why does DCA matter to you? I doubt that anyone in the Carolinas outside the mountains will end up with more snow than you this winter.

its been a terrible year for snow here in the wnc mtns. After this storm Wilmington will have more snow than most mtns locations. It does not matter if your at 6000' or 3000' the snow is well below climo. And this is after a year with over 100" of rain and its been well below average since November 1st.
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meanwhile, if you can believe it, CFS2 went even colder and wetter from yesterday on FEB's forecast!

in fact, it can't get any wetter under its categories and is one category away from its coldest category....crazy

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

but most of that precip is from the rain next week and early next week. You take that out and its below normal precip

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