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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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So what? How often do they get to see significant snow? Almost never? Let them have it, cause after this, we'll have much more opportunity for snow than they do.

 

Same thing happened in January 2003 when the Outer Banks got a foot of snow while we were high and dry. They probably exceeded DCA's total to date after the storm. Then there was a rainstorm in early Feb 2003... imagine the weenie meltdowns back then :lol:

I get to be annoyed at what I get to be annoyed at. Given that you have had like 3 feet of snow up your way in the Cockeysville area this winter, I can see you being more sanguine about it. But thanks for the officiousness.

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Well, yeah. Sun rises in the east and all that...c'mon H2O, we've been down this road before. It's a weather board. We discuss things we have no control over.

 

Of course we do but why get mad at it?  I'm just trying to keep perspective on all of it.  Yes it's been cold, many have seen snow with some getting more than others.  You have x2 my totals and if OBX and Norfolk get x2 of me then thats just the way it is.

 

I don't see the rain chances as an end all to winter so far.  even 09-10 had a rainer in between all the big snows.  

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Of course we do but why get mad at it?  I'm just trying to keep perspective on all of it.  Yes it's been cold, many have seen snow with some getting more than others.  You have x2 my totals and if OBX and Norfolk get x2 of me then thats just the way it is.

 

I don't see the rain chances as an end all to winter so far.  even 09-10 had a rainer in between all the big snows.

I would like at least one big snow. Plenty of chances for rain.

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Of course we do but why get mad at it?  I'm just trying to keep perspective on all of it.  Yes it's been cold, many have seen snow with some getting more than others.  You have x2 my totals and if OBX and Norfolk get x2 of me then thats just the way it is.

 

I don't see the rain chances as an end all to winter so far.  even 09-10 had a rainer in between all the big snows.  

I didn't say I was mad. Wtf? I also didn't say rain over the next 10 days was an end to winter. I did say if it plays out that way it will be disappointing to me given the freezer conditions we have been living in, to end up with rain to end it, instead of being on the snow side of a boundary. If it plays out like that, yes, it will be disappointing.

 

And, yes, 16 inches IMBY so far has been nice. I freely admit to, like a junkie, wanting more.

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I get to be annoyed at what I get to be annoyed at. Given that you have had like 3 feet of snow up your way in the Cockeysville area this winter, I can see you being more sanguine about it. But thanks for the officiousness.

 

Not quite, we do well, but it ain't Mt. Parkton.

You're had two significant storms this month (one of which I missed) and you're pretty close to reaching climo with 16" to date. Why does DCA matter to you? I doubt that anyone in the Carolinas outside the mountains will end up with more snow than you this winter.

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I get to be annoyed at what I get to be annoyed at. Given that you have had like 3 feet of snow up your way in the Cockeysville area this winter, I can see you being more sanguine about it. But thanks for the officiousness.

Agreed. Sorry, but there is a reason many of the places about to get a WSW criteria storm (for us, not just their WSW criteria) average less than 1" a year -- it's not supposed to snow there.

As Matt says...it's snow -- all I care about is my backyard. Not going to be pretend to be happy that some place that averages 0.8" a year is about to get hit while we remain high and dry.

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Not quite, we do well, but it ain't Mt. Parkton.

You're had two significant storms this month (one of which I missed) and you're pretty close to reaching climo with 16" to date. Why does DCA matter to you? I doubt that anyone in the Carolinas outside the mountains will end up with more snow than you this winter.

 

Weirdly, I root for DCA because I root for Matt, and H20 and Ian and Wes and others to do just as well as I am. And I want to do even better up my way, it's just how I am.

 

So, yeah, a juicy southern system that dumps snow down in the coastal Carolina area and misses us is annoying to me. The clipper-on-steroids or whatever that was last week was an awesome surprise and a fun event, but I happen to really enjoy the moisture laden southern storms that dump qpf in the form of snow over us. The one last week was still moisture starved, but saved by ratios. It is what it is. This should all be in banter. I have confessed to being a snow dick over there.

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Agreed. Sorry, but there is a reason many of the places about to get a WSW criteria storm (for us, not just their WSW criteria) average less than 1" a year -- it's not supposed to snow there.

As Matt says...it's snow -- all I care about is my backyard. Not going to be pretend to be happy that some place that averages 0.8" a year is about to get hit while we remain high and dry.

I think it's more of a "at least it's not NE or some other place that gets more than us."

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Not quite, we do well, but it ain't Mt. Parkton.

You're had two significant storms this month (one of which I missed) and you're pretty close to reaching climo with 16" to date. Why does DCA matter to you? I doubt that anyone in the Carolinas outside the mountains will end up with more snow than you this winter.

its been a terrible year for snow here in the wnc mtns. After this storm Wilmington will have more snow than most mtns locations. It does not matter if your at 6000' or 3000' the snow is well below climo. And this is after a year with over 100" of rain and its been well below average since November 1st.
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meanwhile, if you can believe it, CFS2 went even colder and wetter from yesterday on FEB's forecast!

in fact, it can't get any wetter under its categories and is one category away from its coldest category....crazy

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

but most of that precip is from the rain next week and early next week. You take that out and its below normal precip

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I'm not sure what everybody is expecting. We are definitely getting s warmer period in early Feb. It's been talked about for a while now. Whether it's 3 or 5 or even 7 days, we just don't know. 

 

All guidance points to below normal again inside of 2 weeks. Broad conus trough and now weak ridging along socal is showing on the means. -Epo runs the whole period and some blocking (not optimal) has been showing for days. 

 

Feb is not going to be door to door cold at all. Even if we get snow it's prob not going to stick on the ground for a week. We're most likely past that part of the year. 

 

Just focus on the weekend wave. It's not resolved at all. If the next week's storm is strong it's going to cut. Any wrapped up storm is going to cut for a while. Just root for weaker solutions, hp pressing, and more zonal flow for now. I'm glad we're most likely getting the warmer period out of the way early in the month. This is the 3rd time this winter we've seen ridging in the east as everything reloads. I'm not sure why there is so much negative talk. I should probably take a break from this thread until next week. 

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Bob, I think people are negative because on the models we are getting warm with a storm around. At least that is how I feel :(

 

At 6-10 day leads nothing is resolved. We're on the edge here. We'll probably see a bunch of flips this week. Some great, some notsomuch. Maybe I'm the only one expecting it. Our chances of snow on any storm from the weekend through mid next week are 50/50 at best. And we'll have no idea for days. 

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True those maps dont mean snow necessarily. We could have 2 massive 45 degree rainstorms and 3 weeks of dry cold and verify that without a flake.

Yes, theoretically it's possible, but warm/wet, cold/dry mantra aside, how likely is that to actually happen?

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DC to Philly is going to be in the "it could go either way" zone for this upcoming pattern.  With the PNA going negative the trough axis is going to shift west.  However, the AO looks to stay fairly negative as well and the CONUS is flooded with cold air so its not a lost cause, there will be plenty of cold around available if we can get any of the waves riding the boundary to stay south.  What is going to determine how this ends up for the Mid Atlantic will be if we can get ANY help from the other indices.  Either the NAO or the EPO could do the trick.  The trend warmer yesterday was due to the EPO trending back towards neutral...with a -PNA and no help from the NAO that wont work.  We either need the EPO to help us out OR the NAO.  If either of those can get their act together some of these waves will likely slide under a pressing cold air mass.  If both do us no good, this is probably going to be a great pattern for Binghamtom NY and wet for the mid atl.  The models have been shifting all over with where to go with this so I doubt anything is settled yet.  My gut says the GFS is more right then the euro. 

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Yes, theoretically it's possible, but warm/wet, cold/dry mantra aside, how likely is that to actually happen?

depends... January it would be very hard to do, but February, got to remember the avg highs start creeping up the second half of the month.  You can be below normal in DC and still not cold enough for snow.  Its unlikely but wouldn't be unheard of to end the month -2 temps but below normal snow. 

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