nj2va Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sref's keeping us in the game. Well NW of 15Z. Yup, hopefully a sign of good things to come. 0.25 looks to line up closely with 18z GFS (just south of DCA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If CRAS pulls the upset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sref's keeping us in the game. Well NW of 15Z. Yes, just saw that. Looks actually surprisingly way NW. Still not a believer, but if the western s/w phases in we know these sorts of things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How soon before we are discussing if this winter is better than '09-'10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Also, it looks like more members are NW of the mean, WRT the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 North trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How soon before we are discussing if this winter is better than '09-'10? As soon as you never post again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How soon before we are discussing if this winter is better than '09-'10? This post should result in a ban and you should have to go collect all of the trash can lids/grill covers in Bethesda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 As soon as you never post again Don't be so bitter. 18z has been amazing, and for cold lovers this winter> '09-'10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How soon before we are discussing if this winter is better than '09-'10? As soon as Fairfax County schools don't close for three days for a 5" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 What could I possibly be bitter about? Please enlighten me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 North trendDC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DC special These people are going to really love your CRAS model from the last one. Should we just sacrifice you and win again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 DC special You wish, we all know you will be crying in your Wheaties come Wed evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have to make sure now, would we be cold enough? Temps have burned us late in the game before. Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 North trend DC special We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have to make sure now, would we be cold enough? Temps have burned us late in the game before. Sent from my iPod touch Not on your street. It will take hours before it starts to accumulate on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 These people are going to really love your CRAS model from the last one. Should we just sacrifice you and win again?Will be interesting to see if GFS holds or even continues. I'm not sold it's not a burp yet. SREF is sorta promising but a bit at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have to make sure now, would we be cold enough? Temps have burned us late in the game before. Sent from my iPod touch Not on your street. It will take hours before it starts to accumulate on the roads. Haha. Despite my past bitterness, this was a serious question. Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z gefs looks great again on the means down the line. Blocking across the pole into western greenland. Just parked. Cold look for the conus. And probably stormy. This is 5 runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Will be interesting to see if GFS holds or even continues. I'm not sold it's not a burp yet. SREF is sorta promising but a bit at range. Agreed. I felt the 18z GFS was intriguing not because of its verbatim output, but because its ensembles (which are still usable) were well NW even of the op. The SREF is well nw and its spread shows some members to be even better than the mean. However, plenty of times we have seen this happen and the 0z nam and remainder of the suite kills it. It is a whole new ballgame however if the western vort phases in, as thats really a whole new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Will be interesting to see if GFS holds or even continues. I'm not sold it's not a burp yet. SREF is sorta promising but a bit at range. I think it will be more interesing to see if the NAM does us any favors first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Haha. Despite my past bitterness, this was a serious question. Sent from my iPod touch If the beaches of SC are bracing for snow, you can assume it would be cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Will be interesting to see if GFS holds or even continues. I'm not sold it's not a burp yet. SREF is sorta promising but a bit at range. I am awaiting the NAM together with Matt eagerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How soon before we are discussing if this winter is better than '09-'10? Never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If the beaches of SC are bracing for snow, you can assume it would be cold enough Yeah I figured that was assumed, but since it wasn't it will be plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Will be interesting to see if GFS holds or even continues. I'm not sold it's not a burp yet. SREF is sorta promising but a bit at range. I would say burp if there wasn't so much support with the members. Almost like the n solution locked in all at once. Not saying it can't easily go to he11 in next couple hours. But I was pretty surprised when 18z gefs came out. I can't imagine 0z taking it a step further. Probably a compromise but I hope we get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah I figured that was assumed, but since it wasn't it will be plenty cold. if it does pan out i'll def be out and about taking some photo's i'll post some if it looks good. Being from central Md my standards are a tad bit higher lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Per Wow in the SE thread, 00z NAM is def slower with the polar energy at 18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Per Wow in the SE thread, 00z NAM is def slower with the polar energy at 18 hrs Is that a good thing for a further push of the precip north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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