Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 uh oh.... that's a massive improvement from 12z gefs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I will walk to work for a week if that were to happen. And that type of setup would favor us easterners. 1/25/2000 - Never Forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I will walk to work for a week if that were to happen. And that type of setup would favor us easterners. if this storm happens, Matt and I will both be voting for the Lyndon LaRouche candidates next election cycle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 By my count looks like 5 or 6 of those members would bring snow to DC, let the trend continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Holy crap. Just lock up this 18z run and I'll trade the rest of the winter and part of next. this is like a retro 18z run when it gave us 3-4 feet of snow every other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Two of the GEFS members have a 6" stripe that extends from Birmingham to Boston. 00z will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm still trying to figure out how N md jackpots with this. I guess 0z will answer it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ***Today's 18z GFS 500mb is so scarily similar to 1994 its almost shocking;*** January 8-9 1994 was an overrunning storm with precip wedged between the northern confluence. 18z GFS 186 HRS: January 8-9 1994 Few days later on the GFS the remaining energy is ejected similar to the February 11 1994 storm. I am giddy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Lol at a few members with close to an inch qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Approx. 4-5/10 members bring RIC .75"+ of qpf. Things are looking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Approx. 4-5/10 members bring RIC .75"+ of qpf. Things are looking up. ur in a great spot it would seem....congrats j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ***Today's 18z GFS 500mb is so scarily similar to 1994 its almost shocking;*** January 8-9 1994 was an overrunning storm with precip wedged between the northern confluence. 18z GFS 186 HRS: 186hrs.gif January 8-9 1994 94.gif Few days later on the GFS the remaining energy is ejected similar to the February 11 1994 storm. I am giddy right now. idk how you guys did up there, but that wasn't too hot for us down here in fact, none of those big events were great for us down here that winter unless you like constant ip and zr with snow 50 miles to ur north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm getting a bit excited with this apparent northwest trend...Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fringed again up here. I expect a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ur in a great spot it would seem....congrats j/k Never works out for us. I always talk about ideal positions 2-3 days out and I still don't feel comfortable because this could easily pull a 12/2010. We've been GFS'd...will probably be NAM'd soon enough here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Might as well say it now. Congrats sparky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 idk how you guys did up there, but that wasn't too hot for us down here in fact, none of those big events were great for us down here that winter unless you like constant ip and zr with snow 50 miles to ur north I would much rather have a big ice storm or a sleet fest than cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 By my count looks like 5 or 6 of those members would bring snow to DC, let the trend continue! More like 5 or 6 bring 0.25 QPF into the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fringed again up here. I expect a dusting. We all know you and Sparky will be reporting less than a 1/8 mile visibility heavy snow with 8" on the ground and Richmond will have a mix of sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the low is simply stronger and throws precip back further on the nw side. The track isn't really that much different than previous runs. Maybe a little more west but I can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fringed again up here. I expect a dusting. ^^^just went to get gas for his snow blower^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm still trying to figure out how N md jackpots with this. I guess 0z will answer it for me. I have full confidence that you will find the answer, but you must remember that Sparky would prefer to sweep rather than shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the low is simply stronger and throws precip back further on the nw side. The track isn't really that much different than previous runs. Maybe a little more west but I can't really tell. Western vort digs much better and phases somewhat with the baja vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Western vort digs much better and phases somewhat with the baja vort. which, coincidentally, is what the CRAS does GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_500_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z gfs sure looks like the funnest 2 weeks of winter we've seen in a long time even if we get fringed mid week. Plus like I was saying earlier, who wants to be in the jackpot area 72 hours out anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 which, coincidentally, is what the CRAS does GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_500_084l.gif Hope the trend is correct, I'd say we'd end up with a pretty big event down this way, like 6-10 and DC would do well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hope the trend is correct, I'd say we'd end up with a pretty big event down this way, like 6-10 and DC would do well too. Who cares about DC me and Mitch only care about our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Who cares about DC me and Mitch only care about our backyards. I'll send pics of my foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW, if we are to believe the 18z ensemble members, 6 of the 11 have 2" or more per the Raleigh snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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