jums300 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm getting a bit excited with this apparent northwest trend...Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fringed again up here. I expect a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ur in a great spot it would seem....congrats j/k Never works out for us. I always talk about ideal positions 2-3 days out and I still don't feel comfortable because this could easily pull a 12/2010. We've been GFS'd...will probably be NAM'd soon enough here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Might as well say it now. Congrats sparky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 idk how you guys did up there, but that wasn't too hot for us down here in fact, none of those big events were great for us down here that winter unless you like constant ip and zr with snow 50 miles to ur north I would much rather have a big ice storm or a sleet fest than cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 By my count looks like 5 or 6 of those members would bring snow to DC, let the trend continue! More like 5 or 6 bring 0.25 QPF into the DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fringed again up here. I expect a dusting. We all know you and Sparky will be reporting less than a 1/8 mile visibility heavy snow with 8" on the ground and Richmond will have a mix of sleet and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the low is simply stronger and throws precip back further on the nw side. The track isn't really that much different than previous runs. Maybe a little more west but I can't really tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Fringed again up here. I expect a dusting. ^^^just went to get gas for his snow blower^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm still trying to figure out how N md jackpots with this. I guess 0z will answer it for me. I have full confidence that you will find the answer, but you must remember that Sparky would prefer to sweep rather than shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the low is simply stronger and throws precip back further on the nw side. The track isn't really that much different than previous runs. Maybe a little more west but I can't really tell. Western vort digs much better and phases somewhat with the baja vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Western vort digs much better and phases somewhat with the baja vort. which, coincidentally, is what the CRAS does GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_500_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 18z gfs sure looks like the funnest 2 weeks of winter we've seen in a long time even if we get fringed mid week. Plus like I was saying earlier, who wants to be in the jackpot area 72 hours out anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 which, coincidentally, is what the CRAS does GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M CRAS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/images/cras45na_500_084l.gif Hope the trend is correct, I'd say we'd end up with a pretty big event down this way, like 6-10 and DC would do well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hope the trend is correct, I'd say we'd end up with a pretty big event down this way, like 6-10 and DC would do well too. Who cares about DC me and Mitch only care about our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Who cares about DC me and Mitch only care about our backyards. I'll send pics of my foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 FWIW, if we are to believe the 18z ensemble members, 6 of the 11 have 2" or more per the Raleigh snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'll send pics of my foot of snow. no, no wait, we can't wait for you to get your snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'll send pics of my foot of snow. Just teasing hopefully we will both get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Interesting post from Mitchell in the NY subforum, he knows his stuff. For a week now some of the models and some of the ensembles are suggesting the possibility of a storm coming up the coast. I am still very undecided on this one, but if the winds at 500 back just a little more we would get a storm. So at this time it needs to be watch. Tomorrow runs should start to show it like the last storm, it was pronged to Far East at first. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does anyone other than me have a sneaking feeling that the storm to our south is going to come farther north than the models are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does anyone other than me have a sneaking feeling that the storm to our south is going to come farther north than the models are showing? I'm excited to see the 0z.. will say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does anyone other than me have a sneaking feeling that the storm to our south is going to come farther north than the models are showing? not this far north, but a bit more.. if it forms a significant Low on it, then I will change my tune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Does anyone other than me have a sneaking feeling that the storm to our south is going to come farther north than the models are showing? heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I made a post earlier today that I thought the cities had a 25% tops chance of seeing accum snow from this. Shortly after I felt kinda stupid because that was way too high and probably still is after 18z. It's hard to discount that virtually all 51 EPS members show nothing for dca. Op is one thing but the euro as a whole hates our chances and we're almost at short leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Feels almost like the Xmas 2010 storm that all of a sudden came north on models and got us excited only to snow on eastern NC and whiff us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The CRAS nailed 1/30/10. That was the one time we took it seriously. I posted this since folks were wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Big jump NW on SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Sref's keeping us in the game. Well NW of 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Getting really excited, I am totally on board. Though if Charleston gets more snow then DCA has in 3 years I will flip ****. Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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