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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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idk how you guys did up there, but that wasn't too hot for us down here

in fact, none of those big events were great for us down here that winter unless you like constant ip and zr with snow 50 miles to ur north

I would much rather have a big ice storm or a sleet fest than cold and dry.

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Looks like the low is simply stronger and throws precip back further on the nw side. The track isn't really that much different than previous runs. Maybe a little more west but I can't really tell. 

 

 

Western vort digs much better and phases somewhat with the baja vort. 

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Hope the trend is correct, I'd say we'd end up with a pretty big event down this way, like 6-10 and DC would do well too. 

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Interesting post from Mitchell in the NY subforum, he knows his stuff.

For a week now some of the models and some of the ensembles are suggesting the possibility of a storm coming up the coast. I am still very undecided on this one, but if the winds at 500 back just a little more we would get a storm. So at this time it needs to be watch. Tomorrow runs should start to show it like the last storm, it was pronged to Far East at first. Time will tell.

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I made a post earlier today that I thought the cities had a 25% tops chance of seeing accum snow from this. Shortly after I felt kinda stupid because that was way too high and probably still is after 18z.

It's hard to discount that virtually all 51 EPS members show nothing for dca. Op is one thing but the euro as a whole hates our chances and we're almost at short leads.

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