snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Certainly not. Just going with what the clown maps are showing. I haven't looked that closely but the GFS scenario just looking at it would seem like it's not all snow in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have been on these boards along time, it definitely sniffed out a nice size storm first i just cant remember exactly which one. That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'll tell you what I'm more interested in...18z's idea for superbowl sunday.... Start a thread. We start them up to a month in advance now. Your first sentence could be " Obviously there will be a lot of changes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm close to pulling the trigger to being close to being on the fence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm close to pulling the trigger to being close to being on the fence Just stay on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause Ji has that track record yet he has like 90,000 followers on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause Weenies assigning victory to one model over the other is always a bit sketchy especially looking back a few years. Weenies assigning victory to the CRAS is extra sketchy. Almost every time I've ever looked at it its amped up and has a storm near the coast. Every now and then it agrees with the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 mt tolland is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty nice look for the 3-4th. EPS members are pretty gung ho for that period two. Half the members show 2"+ of snow for many folks. Don't have the DCA plot yet but my yard is looking pretty good. Almost no members show anything of consequence for Wed-Thurs near the cities. Once you get down to St. Mary it looks a little better but not by much. These next 2-3 weeks are going to be fun and stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Holy crap. Just lock up this 18z run and I'll trade the rest of the winter and part of next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Holy crap. Just lock up this 18z run and I'll trade the rest of the winter and part of next.Looks like multiple chances at snow, even just pre-truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mitch has a better memory for these things than me but i think it sniffed out 12/19/09 first. no, it was the storm exactly 4 years to the day as the CRAS has it.....1/30/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like multiple chances at snow, even just pre-truncation. It has plenty of ensemble support overall. The 12z GEFS run was pretty awesome. Euro is much warmer until d12 or so. Details are silly. A battleground seems to want to set up near us. It's like overruning galore with a wall to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm close to pulling the trigger to being close to being on the fence living on the edge is he!! isn't it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 1/25/2000 - Never Forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 1/25/2000 - Never Forget what happened? never mind, Pearl Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z will bring the fans back from the exits. we do overrunning events better than most of our other scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 EPS members looking good for d8-10. Plenty of snowy members. DCA has 7 with 6"+ snows for d8-10. About half show 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This year, I'd be happy just want to see the stupid Polar Vortex get owned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Holy crap. Just lock up this 18z run and I'll trade the rest of the winter and part of next. it's the CFS2 forecast for FEB in detail (relatively speaking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 no, it was the storm exactly 4 years to the day as the CRAS has it.....1/30/10 Figured you would know thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 no, it was the storm exactly 4 years to the day as the CRAS has it.....1/30/10 Mitch is right. I wrote about it in my diary, and laughed about it later. But seriously, it was funny that the CRAS was the only model even close on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That 18z run was ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z ensembles looking good, 0.25 almost to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looking at the 18z GEFS mean, sure looks like there are a few hits for our area based off 72 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 still 60 hours out----but euro keeps saying no EURO was edging closer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z ensembles looking good, 0.25 almost to DC that's more than a little surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS has shown that off an on, a brutal ice event southern half of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wishcasting is a powerful force..... ETA: A full phase of the southern vort and earlier slp and 850 lp development. If it can get cranking early and deepen quickly it can help the entire complex stay closer to the coast and be more expansive. You may have figured this storm out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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