Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Last thing I want to see is FL and SC get a lot of snow. We are SNE here. Start chuckin' weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What is kind of ironic is last Sunday at 18z was when the models made the big shift with the eventual snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Those snow depth maps from 12z and 18z are ridiculous, if you're in coastal NC u gotta be so pumped but also so worried that soon you're gonna be toeing the rain/snow like if this continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I know it's not apples to apples time-wise, but compare the 48 hr. RGEM at 12Z to the 48 hr. 18Z RGEM definitely more interesting down south wrt moisture at 700mb and the trough looks a bit better too note the renegade streak of moisture as well on the 18Z run straight up the Apps.....hmmm 12Z is on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 and the GFS has been the more progressive model this winter soooo.......who's staying up for the Euro with Bob and Yoda? I trust that this thread will have added about 20 posts between about 1:00 and when I aake up. Meanwhile, the SE VA thread will have about five new pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We got a shot now. One more shift like that N and bullseye. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WTH, I'm in. Seasonal trend says this comes north and those in the Carolinas/SE VA get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 CRAS two in a row? I'm a numbers guy. The cras is the equivalent to doing a quick pick mega millions. It hit once so we have to wait at least another 125 million runs before odds start tipping. I'm out. But I might be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Don't lie Bob. You're already in! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm a numbers guy. The cras is the equivalent to doing a quick pick mega millions. It hit once so we have to wait at least another 125 million runs before odds start tipping. I'm out. But I might be in. but the thing about the CRAS is, it was such a hit for us Bob (more to go after the final panel at 84 hrs.,) that if it was off by 50 miles, we'd still get 4" with ratios I'd bet iow, it doesn't have to be completely right, just close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm a numbers guy. The cras is the equivalent to doing a quick pick mega millions. It hit once so we have to wait at least another 125 million runs before odds start tipping. I'm out. But I might be in. Maybe this is its pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 These panels are pretty nice from 12z gefs. D12 12z gefs h5 d12.JPG D16 12z gefs h5 d16.JPG Heights are building into the western nao region through the end of the run. Good looks before d12 as well. Just wanted to point out where the gefs thinks were going. The look has been similar but improving through the last 4 GEFS runs. Those are REALLY nice looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 And I've been called optimistic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If you even think you might get snow, you get 6 inches And I've been called optimistic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 but the thing about the CRAS is, it was such a hit for us Bob (more to go after the final panel at 84 hrs.,) that if it was off by 50 miles, we'd still get 4" with ratios I'd bet iow, it doesn't have to be completely right, just close C'mon mitch. It's the cras. That thing runs on floppies and intel 4004's. I've been a casual observer of this storm mostly for the novelty of the historic hit it would be down south. 18z phased it and it still grazes us. We would need the lp to go even more nuts and ride even closer to the coast. I'm not saying it's impossible but I've never been all that enthused for our chances so I'll remain that way until it's snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'll take the latter. Actually gets me into some light snow as well. Are you in Roanoke? I drove 81 today from Bristol to Winchester and the only place that didn't have snow on the whole trip was Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Maybe this is its pattern. I can't even remember the cras' once in a lifetime coup. What storm was that again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WTH, I'm in. Seasonal trend says this comes north and those in the Carolinas/SE VA get screwed. SREFs, CRAS, and now Happy Hour 18z GFS? I'm in. I also think I'm winning that HGTV dream home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If you even think you might get snow, you get 6 inches What about when I think there's no chance in hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'll tell you what I'm more interested in...18z's idea for superbowl sunday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I can't even remember the cras' once in a lifetime coup. What storm was that again? I'm not sure. I think someone made that up anyway. It was funny to see all the CRAS talk though. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 But realistically, can someone explain the mechanism that could pull this north into us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What about when I think there's no chance in hell? 3" you 2' for SNO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 But realistically, can someone explain the mechanism that could pull this north into us? Wishcasting is a powerful force..... ETA: A full phase of the southern vort and earlier slp and 850 lp development. If it can get cranking early and deepen quickly it can help the entire complex stay closer to the coast and be more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm not sure. I think someone made that up anyway. It was funny to see all the CRAS talk though. Who knows. Mitch has a better memory for these things than me but i think it sniffed out 12/19/09 first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Going along with the believable scenarios, 18Z NAM gives Myrtle and Wilmington, NC 16-20" of snow. I hope those folks don't get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mitch has a better memory for these things than me but i thinked it sniffed out 12/19/09 first. I really doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS 18 has another moderate event for next Sunday. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Going along with the believable scenarios, 18Z NAM gives Myrtle and Wilmington, NC 16-20" of snow. I hope those folks don't get too excited. I haven't looked that closely but the GFS scenario just looking at it would seem like it's not all snow in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I really doubt it. I have been on these boards along time, it definitely sniffed out a nice size storm first i just cant remember exactly which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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