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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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but the thing about the CRAS is, it was such a hit for us Bob (more to go after the final panel at 84 hrs.,) that if it was off by 50 miles, we'd still get 4" with ratios I'd bet

iow, it doesn't have to be completely right, just close

 

C'mon mitch. It's the cras. That thing runs on floppies and intel 4004's. 

 

I've been a casual observer of this storm mostly for the novelty of the historic hit it would be down south. 18z phased it and it still grazes us. We would need the lp to go even more nuts and ride even closer to the coast. I'm not saying it's impossible but I've never been all that enthused for our chances so I'll remain that way until it's snowing. 

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I can't even remember the cras' once in a lifetime coup. What storm was that again?

I'm not sure. I think someone made that up anyway. It was funny to see all the CRAS talk though. Who knows.

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But realistically, can someone explain the mechanism that could pull this north into us?

 

Wishcasting is a powerful force.....

 

 

ETA:

 

A full phase of the southern vort and earlier slp and 850 lp development. If it can get cranking early and deepen quickly it can help the entire complex stay closer to the coast and be more expansive. 

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Going along with the believable scenarios, 18Z NAM gives Myrtle and Wilmington, NC 16-20" of snow. I hope those folks don't get too excited.

I haven't looked that closely but the GFS scenario just looking at it would seem like it's not all snow in those areas.

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I have been on these boards along time, it definitely sniffed out a nice size storm first i just cant remember exactly which one.

 

That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause

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That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause

Weenies assigning victory to one model over the other is always a bit sketchy especially looking back a few years.  Weenies assigning victory to the CRAS is extra sketchy.  Almost every time I've ever looked at it its amped up and has a storm near the coast.  Every now and then it agrees with the rest of guidance.

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Pretty nice look for the 3-4th. EPS members are pretty gung ho for that period two. Half the members show 2"+ of snow for many folks. Don't have the DCA plot yet but my yard is looking pretty good.

 

Almost no members show anything of consequence for Wed-Thurs near the cities. Once you get down to St. Mary it looks a little better but not by much.

 

These next 2-3 weeks are going to be fun and stressful.  

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Looks like multiple chances at snow, even just pre-truncation.

 

It has plenty of ensemble support overall. The 12z GEFS run was pretty awesome. Euro is much warmer until d12 or so. Details are silly. A battleground seems to want to set up near us. It's like overruning galore with a wall to the north. 

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