snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If you even think you might get snow, you get 6 inches And I've been called optimistic..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 but the thing about the CRAS is, it was such a hit for us Bob (more to go after the final panel at 84 hrs.,) that if it was off by 50 miles, we'd still get 4" with ratios I'd bet iow, it doesn't have to be completely right, just close C'mon mitch. It's the cras. That thing runs on floppies and intel 4004's. I've been a casual observer of this storm mostly for the novelty of the historic hit it would be down south. 18z phased it and it still grazes us. We would need the lp to go even more nuts and ride even closer to the coast. I'm not saying it's impossible but I've never been all that enthused for our chances so I'll remain that way until it's snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'll take the latter. Actually gets me into some light snow as well. Are you in Roanoke? I drove 81 today from Bristol to Winchester and the only place that didn't have snow on the whole trip was Roanoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Maybe this is its pattern. I can't even remember the cras' once in a lifetime coup. What storm was that again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WTH, I'm in. Seasonal trend says this comes north and those in the Carolinas/SE VA get screwed. SREFs, CRAS, and now Happy Hour 18z GFS? I'm in. I also think I'm winning that HGTV dream home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If you even think you might get snow, you get 6 inches What about when I think there's no chance in hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'll tell you what I'm more interested in...18z's idea for superbowl sunday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I can't even remember the cras' once in a lifetime coup. What storm was that again? I'm not sure. I think someone made that up anyway. It was funny to see all the CRAS talk though. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 But realistically, can someone explain the mechanism that could pull this north into us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What about when I think there's no chance in hell? 3" you 2' for SNO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 But realistically, can someone explain the mechanism that could pull this north into us? Wishcasting is a powerful force..... ETA: A full phase of the southern vort and earlier slp and 850 lp development. If it can get cranking early and deepen quickly it can help the entire complex stay closer to the coast and be more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm not sure. I think someone made that up anyway. It was funny to see all the CRAS talk though. Who knows. Mitch has a better memory for these things than me but i think it sniffed out 12/19/09 first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Going along with the believable scenarios, 18Z NAM gives Myrtle and Wilmington, NC 16-20" of snow. I hope those folks don't get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mitch has a better memory for these things than me but i thinked it sniffed out 12/19/09 first. I really doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS 18 has another moderate event for next Sunday. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Going along with the believable scenarios, 18Z NAM gives Myrtle and Wilmington, NC 16-20" of snow. I hope those folks don't get too excited. I haven't looked that closely but the GFS scenario just looking at it would seem like it's not all snow in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I really doubt it. I have been on these boards along time, it definitely sniffed out a nice size storm first i just cant remember exactly which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Certainly not. Just going with what the clown maps are showing. I haven't looked that closely but the GFS scenario just looking at it would seem like it's not all snow in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I have been on these boards along time, it definitely sniffed out a nice size storm first i just cant remember exactly which one. That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'll tell you what I'm more interested in...18z's idea for superbowl sunday.... Start a thread. We start them up to a month in advance now. Your first sentence could be " Obviously there will be a lot of changes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm close to pulling the trigger to being close to being on the fence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm close to pulling the trigger to being close to being on the fence Just stay on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause Ji has that track record yet he has like 90,000 followers on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That's why it doesn't matter. It only did it once. I hardly consider that skill. If anything it was right for the totally wrong reasons. Kinda like being so wrong that you end up right just 'cause Weenies assigning victory to one model over the other is always a bit sketchy especially looking back a few years. Weenies assigning victory to the CRAS is extra sketchy. Almost every time I've ever looked at it its amped up and has a storm near the coast. Every now and then it agrees with the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 mt tolland is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty nice look for the 3-4th. EPS members are pretty gung ho for that period two. Half the members show 2"+ of snow for many folks. Don't have the DCA plot yet but my yard is looking pretty good. Almost no members show anything of consequence for Wed-Thurs near the cities. Once you get down to St. Mary it looks a little better but not by much. These next 2-3 weeks are going to be fun and stressful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Holy crap. Just lock up this 18z run and I'll trade the rest of the winter and part of next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Holy crap. Just lock up this 18z run and I'll trade the rest of the winter and part of next.Looks like multiple chances at snow, even just pre-truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mitch has a better memory for these things than me but i think it sniffed out 12/19/09 first. no, it was the storm exactly 4 years to the day as the CRAS has it.....1/30/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like multiple chances at snow, even just pre-truncation. It has plenty of ensemble support overall. The 12z GEFS run was pretty awesome. Euro is much warmer until d12 or so. Details are silly. A battleground seems to want to set up near us. It's like overruning galore with a wall to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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