snow. Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Bob, I think the low track north because the next northern stream system gets too close to it and the vort and low start responding to it. It's the solution the euro had yesterday and still sort of has (I think). Ji, Without a southern stream, systems digging southward tend to have trough getting fat enough south to save us. We don't have any confluence to keep pressures high over the lakes or northeast. We still can get clippers if they dig far enough south or we can get a faux southern stream by retrograding the ridge a bit to allow a little more room for systems to dig and have the tail end of some trough spit away from it. Yesterday's D+11 liked that idea, today's looks fairly similar but the analogs aren't so bullish on snow but are on cold. Bob, I think the low track north because the next northern stream system gets too close to it and the vort and low start responding to it. It's the solution the euro had yesterday and still sort of has (I think). Ji, Without a southern stream, systems digging southward tend to have trough getting fat enough south to save us. We don't have any confluence to keep pressures high over the lakes or northeast. We still can get clippers if they dig far enough south or we can get a faux southern stream by retrograding the ridge a bit to allow a little more room for systems to dig and have the tail end of some trough spit away from it. Yesterday's D+11 liked that idea, today's looks fairly similar but the analogs aren't so bullish on snow but are on cold. That's what I have been seeing...other than 1/61 which randomly keeps popping up...I am not impressed with the other analogs for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 we are going to hear a lot of "we" over the next few weeks...If you see the word "we" in a post and the person does not live within 50 miles of DC metro, go ahead and skip the post unless it is HM or Coastal/ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 That's what I have been seeing...other than 1/61 which randomly keeps popping up...I am not impressed with the other analogs for snow I think before the month is out we still have a pretty good chance at a 2 incher. Maybe I'm just getting weenyish. You'd think eventually a clipper would deliver us some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think before the month is out we still have a pretty good chance at a 2 incher. Maybe I'm just getting weenyish. You'd think eventually a clipper would deliver us some snow. even 1/22 has a chance even though it may be too warm....after 1/22 until end of the month we have better chances, I would think? As I mentioned yesterday, 13 out of the last 14 winters I have gotten at least one 1"+ event in the 1/17 - 1/30 window....the one exception being 2006 when we were in a horrible warm pattern during that stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 ... (13 out of 14, wow!, I didn't realize we were such a snow capital) and yesterday's Wes said we have better than that climatological chance of getting 2" or more of snow during the last week of that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think before the month is out we still have a pretty good chance at a 2 incher. Maybe I'm just getting weenyish. You'd think eventually a clipper would deliver us some snow. Its funny cause when I read stuff like this from you my initial thought is... well duh.. it is mid January I like my chances for a two incher also... but taken with in context and given the source... that usually means things are looking pretty good. Any way, I was very impressed by the last time you said the pattern was looking favorable.. around New Years... you nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Its funny cause when I read stuff like this from you my initial thought is... well duh.. it is mid January I like my chances for a two incher also... but taken with in context and given the source... that usually means things are looking pretty good. Any way, I was very impressed by the last time you said the pattern was looking favorable.. around New Years... you nailed. I don't think it's a great pattern but the persistent cold and time of year makes it likely we see some type of clipper get south of us. Today's GEFS analogs were not very exciting for snow so don't get carried away. Tomorrow I'll be doing an article on the pattern and will address our snow chances. I actually thought we had a chance of getting an inch this week coming up as I thought one of the shortwave digging south of us might allow us to score so don't get too impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 WOW! Believable! Total area miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 WOW! Believable! Total area miss! We get like half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 We get like half an inch. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'm in. Could be worse right? The question is will you take your half inch in one lump sum, or five small clippers each with a tenth of an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 WOW! Believable! Total area miss! The heartbreaker isn't the worst thing...we should get a better clipper track on its heels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The heartbreaker isn't the worst thing...we should get a better clipper track on its heels... i guess we have different definition of heartbreaker. Heartbreaker to me is being modeled for days to get a big snowstorm and then get the rug pulled out 1-3 days before the event Dec 30, Jan 2005, March 2001, Boxing day,etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 i guess we have different definition of heartbreaker. Heartbreaker to me is being modeled for days to get a big snowstorm and then get the rug pulled out 1-3 days before the event Dec 30, Jan 2005, March 2001, Boxing day,etc i know...we are going to be modeled soon...that is the whole point...though it will be too warm at the surface and we will ignore it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 i know...we are going to be modeled soon...that is the whole point...though it will be too warm at the surface and we will ignore it i hope so...part of winter fun is having modeled snow but i dont think we will get even modeled for this event with the pattern the way it is. Remember a few years ago, the euro had us modeled for 24-30 inches of snow for 2-3 runs in the 168-192 hour...and then eventually it become a rainstorm for us tracking to the west. I think we got a car topper before it changed to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 (Joe Bastardi: "Economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US.") https://twitter.com/SwellTheChorus/status/423555797700730881 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 (Joe Bastardi: "Economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US.") https://twitter.com/SwellTheChorus/status/423555797700730881 Ideally there would be some accountability for this hyperbole when that doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everybody should take a minute and read earthlight's post (#863) in the nyc disco thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everybody should take a minute and read earthlight's post (#863) in the nyc disco thread Excellent piece. One of the best I've read on here. It'll become the best if he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everybody should take a minute and read earthlight's post (#863) in the nyc disco thread This one? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42100-january-forecast-discussion/page-20#entry2641301 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Thanks for the heads up on that bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 These "epic pattern" calls rarely pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everybody should take a minute and read earthlight's post (#863) in the nyc disco thread Man, what a great read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Everybody should take a minute and read earthlight's post (#863) in the nyc disco thread John really knows his stuff. Great and thorough write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 These "epic pattern" calls rarely pan out. They do for North Jersey which is where he lives...very nice post, but of no use to us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 They do for North Jersey which is where he lives...very nice post, but of no use to us... Only use us if you live 50 miles or less from 21153 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 still waiting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 A Talking Heads reference? Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 A Talking Heads reference? Well done. same as it ever was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 same as it ever was Slow down, yo. How many people do you think I am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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