mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 D8-10 is a good precip signal on the EPS means but temps are warm on the means also. 850's above freezing. Long ways to go. Overall, GEFS is much cooler in the d8-15 range. Much has to happen first so no worries. Like Ji said, it's a byproduct of se ridging right up the coast. EPS may be right or wrong. Who knows. yeah, like Goldie Hawn, Euro has had better days than this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 good god mitch, delete that thing. I'll charge you with felony ocular assualt. GEFS has been steady with the lr look. EPS has been bouncing much more. However, EPS is better on average. Model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 yeah, like Goldie Hawn, Euro has had better days than this year Isn't she younger than you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution. ETA: Honestly I feel like the NAM is catching on pretty well... its gradually moving toward less stream separation and better timing. I feel like so many people these days don't look at h5 or h3 anymore and just focus on the sfc when trying to forecast, other than looking at h5 to say thats a nice vort, good position etc etc. Shortwave orientation, stream positioning, conservation of vorticity all matter as to the evolution of these systems. This so called "north trend" we are seeing this year is due to the fact models are not progressive enough with features and when it works out in our favor it is often due to timing, trough positioning and jet orientation. I am focussed on this period, because a more progressive solution actually lines up in our favor for a change, but right now the timing is off... still not off enough to be concerned. People will be shocked if this thing changes at the surface because it will be a drastic change, even though the change at h5 and h3 has been gradual. How much QPF on the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No idea Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 if we can be north of the fook line...we can get a semi Pd3 type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mount Holly AFD...highlights the uncertainty for next weekend- AT THIS TIME WE`RE NOT SURE OF ANYTHING FOR NEXT WEEKENDIN OUR AREA BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH MULTI MODEL INDICATIONS TOWARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,. THE TIGHT TEMPERATUREGRADIENT OVER OUR AREA CAN MEAN ANY PTYPE. FOR NOW WE RAN WITH THECOLDER GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES...LESSENING THE HOURLY FREQUENCYTHAT FREEZING RAIN IS MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS.UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE FORTHE DETAILS PRESENTED IN THE 330 PM FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS came way north too, pretty close to getting snow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I wished happy hour tossed this solution out on friday and not sunday. outside looking in still but parts of the se get destroyed. that's kinda cool regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well either 18z GFS had too much to drink, or it is on something. Looks pretty close to snow in DC Of course this will make me want to take a peek at the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 yoda, on 26 Jan 2014 - 5:02 PM, said:Well either 18z GFS had too much to drink, or it is on something. Looks pretty close to snow in DC I'll take the latter. Actually gets me into some light snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well either 18z GFS had too much to drink, or it is on something. Looks pretty close to snow in DC Of course this will make me want to take a peek at the ensembles It gets the southern cut off fully involved.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like we're getting a bonafide something here . I've heard up to 1" of ice to snow to sleet snow maybe 6" either way gonna be fun here at the beach. Time to stock up on beer and sit back and watch Armageddon set it hahahaha ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Did the 18z GFS just give us a snowstorm for a few days from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It gets the southern cut off fully involved.. Indeed it does. Even if this was correct, could this nudge a bit more north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Did the 18z GFS just give us a snowstorm for a few days from now? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Oops...mistook the 18z GFS for something else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 still 60 hours out----but euro keeps saying no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Oops...mistook the 18z GFS for something else... Goldie Hawn? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Goldie Hawn? lolNah Ji's CRAP, I mean, CRAS model.Looks like Wes could sneak in an inch or 2 if 18z GFS was right... that would be kinda funny .1 QPF line is just SE of DCA... 0.25 around Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 CRAS two in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS keeps inching its way north. 18Z was a pretty good move north. I know those snow clown maps are a bad forecasting tool, but the differences between 12Z and 18Z for SE VA are fairly substantial. 18Z looks like it gets accumulating snow as far north as Cambridge on the eastern shore. Again, I know the clown maps are not reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Nah Ji's CRAP, I mean, CRAS model. Looks like Wes could sneak in an inch or 2 if 18z GFS was right... that would be kinda funny and the GFS has been the more progressive model this winter soooo.......who's staying up for the Euro with Bob and Yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 we were like 3 days out before the 18Z NAM caught on to the MLK event, so it would not be unheard of this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm so in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS phases the baja low, big H5 changes, whether it is right? Well....will obviously need more support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 and the GFS has been the more progressive model this winter soooo.......who's staying up for the Euro with Bob and Yoda? As long as you are up for the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 And not only is it further north, but also considerably west. Weenie hopes will probably be drug through the mud later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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