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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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GFS keeps inching its way north. 18Z was a pretty good move north. I know those snow clown maps are a bad forecasting tool, but the differences between 12Z and 18Z for SE VA are fairly substantial. 18Z looks like it gets accumulating snow as far north as Cambridge on the eastern shore. Again, I know the clown maps are not reliable. 

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I know it's not apples to apples time-wise, but compare the 48 hr. RGEM at 12Z to the 48 hr. 18Z RGEM

definitely more interesting down south wrt moisture at 700mb and the trough looks a bit better too

note the renegade streak of moisture as well on the 18Z run straight up the Apps.....hmmm

12Z is on top

12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@0

 

18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@0

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I'm a numbers guy. The cras is the equivalent to doing a quick pick mega millions. It hit once so we have to wait at least another 125 million runs before odds start tipping. I'm out. But I might be in. 

but the thing about the CRAS is, it was such a hit for us Bob (more to go after the final panel at 84 hrs.,) that if it was off by 50 miles, we'd still get 4" with ratios I'd bet

iow, it doesn't have to be completely right, just close

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I'm a numbers guy. The cras is the equivalent to doing a quick pick mega millions. It hit once so we have to wait at least another 125 million runs before odds start tipping. I'm out. But I might be in. 

Maybe this is its pattern.  :whistle:

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These panels are pretty nice from 12z gefs. 

 

D12

 

attachicon.gif12z gefs h5 d12.JPG

 

 

D16

 

attachicon.gif12z gefs h5 d16.JPG

 

 

Heights are building into the western nao region through the end of the run. Good looks before d12 as well. Just wanted to point out where the gefs thinks were going. The look has been similar but improving through the last 4 GEFS runs. 

Those are REALLY nice looks.

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