ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z EURO is still well SE. Coastal Carolina gets 12+. Pretty wild..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Same look on GEFS for wed-thurs. The hits all have organized lp off the coast. Looks like 2 ok hits and another 3-4 close calls. Best case imo is getting lucky with a deep lp circulation in the SE and getting grazed. Odds of accum snow are prob 25% at best for the cities. SE of us much better obviously. Definitely signal on d10-11 on the gefs. Mixed bag of solutions but enough look pretty good. The rain/snow boundary and height patterns in general are so far from resolved that it doesn't matter much at this lead. A lot of members showing a decent storm. Haven't seen a tight cluster like that at long leads all season. Weekend still has some ok looks. Weaker wave gives us a shot as snow. More organized wave gives us rain. Odds would prob favor rain for us city dwellers. Could be fun to track. GEFS has definitely switched to a cold stormy look through the end of the run. Almost unanimous that it will be cold enough for snow. This could get real interesting. Feb is looking good. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but the 12Z op GFS sure looked pretty cold and stormy in the longer range too. And of course the storm it's advertising around day 10 or so. I'm sure that will change 100s of times, but it's an indication of what could happen in a good scenario. There seems to be a lot of high pressure around and the southern stream looks to become active. It can be tricky, of course, but definitely interesting and looking at what the GFS has been showing, I think we have reason to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Cras has been known to catch on to things early. Too soon to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z EURO is still well SE. Coastal Carolina gets 12+. Pretty wild..... this type of pattern (arctic intrusion) is really the only way they can get snow; good for them too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I haven't looked at the ensembles yet, but the 12Z op GFS sure looked pretty cold and stormy in the longer range too. And of course the storm it's advertising around day 10 or so. I'm sure that will change 100s of times, but it's an indication of what could happen in a good scenario. There seems to be a lot of high pressure around and the southern stream looks to become active. It can be tricky, of course, but definitely interesting and looking at what the GFS has been showing, I think we have reason to be optimistic. Ensemble run is outstanding d11-15. -AO and hints of a west based -nao. Best look all year. It's a weenie run for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z EURO is still well SE. Coastal Carolina gets 12+. Pretty wild..... How far inland? I'm keeping my dear mom updated. She's about 45 miles west of myr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 People around here start getting antsy for snow because they know time is not on our side. Probably 3-4 good weeks left for legit snow potential before things become more difficult....based on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gfs has been pretty consistent with a super wet something after Feb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 There does seem to have been a northward trend for most systems this winter which the models are also hinting at for next week. A lot can still change this many days away. The 12Z Euro still looks slightly more north at 9Z on Wednesday with the northern snow axis just into extreme southeast Virginia versus just south of the VA/NC border from the 0Z run. What's against us I believe is the modeled track seems to ride right along the Gulf Stream and out to sea. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/GulfStream_compare.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How far inland? I'm keeping my dear mom updated. She's about 45 miles west of myr Here ya go...assuming 10:1 ratios of course. I didn't check the temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro moving towards a significant storm for someone on Mon-tues after the superbowl. Right now we are on the losing side. PA gets destroyed. Slight change in hp to the N puts us in the game. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Here ya go...assuming 10:1 ratios of course. I didn't check the temps though. Thanks a lot. Prob on the order if 2-4 for her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro moving towards a significant storm for someone on Mon-tues after the superbowl. Right now we are on the losing side. PA gets destroyed. Slight change in hp to the N puts us in the game. I like it. he!! of a long way to go before we get there and the Euro has been more wound up in the long range than usual this year so I'm with you on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If fl gets snow and I don't this winter blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 day 10 Euro puts a deep trough over Japan with another to follow the east coast trough will return folks....I've been watching it all winter and except for a recent ridge which makes sense considering our wx, this has tele-connected very well this year http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012612!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If fl gets snow and I don't this winter blows is it not flurrying for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 day 10 Euro puts a deep trough over Japan with another to follow the east coast trough will return folks....I've been watching it all winter and except for a recent ridge which makes sense considering our wx, this has tele-connected very well this year http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012612!!/ Gefs starts lowering heights again over the east coast post day 10. I'll believe it when I see it closer to day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The day 10-11 range looks incredible on the op runs today. I know it's day 10-11. But it makes sense with the pattern that is being advertised. One big storm and everyone gets to climo. I hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 These panels are pretty nice from 12z gefs. D12 D16 Heights are building into the western nao region through the end of the run. Good looks before d12 as well. Just wanted to point out where the gefs thinks were going. The look has been similar but improving through the last 4 GEFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Crazy EURO run. BECS for obx? Anyone know what their record single storm snowfall is? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SE storm reminds me of December 1989 - I think Myrtle had 16 inches of snow! The set up was different - that was a cold December! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19891223/19891223.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Crazy EURO run. BECS for obx? Anyone know what their record single storm snowfall is? Sent from my iPhone 13.3 inches is the record for Hatteras and it happened on Christmas eve 1989. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19891223/19891223.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thanks Wes. Looks like a good analog. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looking at the Euro on Wunderground, it looks like the overrunning pattern we all envisioned over us and not the OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The signal for Feb 3rd-6th is damn impressive. Don't worry about details yet, I'd almost risk my account (at the enjoyment of others) that there will be large storm at this timeframe, whether it is snow, ice, rain or all 3 is obviously yet TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thanks Wes. Looks like a good analog. Sent from my iPhone um thats like the only analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looking at the Euro on Wunderground, it looks like the overrunning pattern we all envisioned over us and not the OBX not an inch for us on Euro through 240 but it will change. EUro long range loves to amplify the SE ridge and Western trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The signal for Feb 3rd-6th is damn impressive. Don't worry about details yet, I'd almost risk my account (at the enjoyment of others) that there will be large storm at this timeframe, whether it is snow, ice, rain or all 3 is obviously yet TBD yep, and Orh Wxman said it got even colder for them than the last run of EPS....colder for them I would gues would mean colder for us (not enough, I'm sure, but we're far enough away that every bit of cooling can still make a diff in the end) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 not an inch for us on Euro through 240 but it will change. EUro long range loves to amplify the SE ridge and Western trough especially this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 yep, and Orh Wxman said it got even colder for them than the last run of EPS....colder for them I would gues would mean colder for us (not enough, I'm sure, but we're far enough away that every bit of cooling can still make a diff in the end) D8-10 is a good precip signal on the EPS means but temps are warm on the means also. 850's above freezing. Long ways to go. Overall, GEFS is much cooler in the d8-15 range. Much has to happen first so no worries. Like Ji said, it's a byproduct of se ridging right up the coast. EPS may be right or wrong. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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