Ian Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If fl gets snow and I don't this winter blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 day 10 Euro puts a deep trough over Japan with another to follow the east coast trough will return folks....I've been watching it all winter and except for a recent ridge which makes sense considering our wx, this has tele-connected very well this year http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012612!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 If fl gets snow and I don't this winter blows is it not flurrying for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 day 10 Euro puts a deep trough over Japan with another to follow the east coast trough will return folks....I've been watching it all winter and except for a recent ridge which makes sense considering our wx, this has tele-connected very well this year http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012612!!/ Gefs starts lowering heights again over the east coast post day 10. I'll believe it when I see it closer to day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The day 10-11 range looks incredible on the op runs today. I know it's day 10-11. But it makes sense with the pattern that is being advertised. One big storm and everyone gets to climo. I hope it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 These panels are pretty nice from 12z gefs. D12 D16 Heights are building into the western nao region through the end of the run. Good looks before d12 as well. Just wanted to point out where the gefs thinks were going. The look has been similar but improving through the last 4 GEFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Crazy EURO run. BECS for obx? Anyone know what their record single storm snowfall is? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The SE storm reminds me of December 1989 - I think Myrtle had 16 inches of snow! The set up was different - that was a cold December! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19891223/19891223.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Crazy EURO run. BECS for obx? Anyone know what their record single storm snowfall is? Sent from my iPhone 13.3 inches is the record for Hatteras and it happened on Christmas eve 1989. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/19891223/19891223.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thanks Wes. Looks like a good analog. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looking at the Euro on Wunderground, it looks like the overrunning pattern we all envisioned over us and not the OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The signal for Feb 3rd-6th is damn impressive. Don't worry about details yet, I'd almost risk my account (at the enjoyment of others) that there will be large storm at this timeframe, whether it is snow, ice, rain or all 3 is obviously yet TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thanks Wes. Looks like a good analog. Sent from my iPhone um thats like the only analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 looking at the Euro on Wunderground, it looks like the overrunning pattern we all envisioned over us and not the OBX not an inch for us on Euro through 240 but it will change. EUro long range loves to amplify the SE ridge and Western trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The signal for Feb 3rd-6th is damn impressive. Don't worry about details yet, I'd almost risk my account (at the enjoyment of others) that there will be large storm at this timeframe, whether it is snow, ice, rain or all 3 is obviously yet TBD yep, and Orh Wxman said it got even colder for them than the last run of EPS....colder for them I would gues would mean colder for us (not enough, I'm sure, but we're far enough away that every bit of cooling can still make a diff in the end) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 not an inch for us on Euro through 240 but it will change. EUro long range loves to amplify the SE ridge and Western trough especially this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 yep, and Orh Wxman said it got even colder for them than the last run of EPS....colder for them I would gues would mean colder for us (not enough, I'm sure, but we're far enough away that every bit of cooling can still make a diff in the end) D8-10 is a good precip signal on the EPS means but temps are warm on the means also. 850's above freezing. Long ways to go. Overall, GEFS is much cooler in the d8-15 range. Much has to happen first so no worries. Like Ji said, it's a byproduct of se ridging right up the coast. EPS may be right or wrong. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 D8-10 is a good precip signal on the EPS means but temps are warm on the means also. 850's above freezing. Long ways to go. Overall, GEFS is much cooler in the d8-15 range. Much has to happen first so no worries. Like Ji said, it's a byproduct of se ridging right up the coast. EPS may be right or wrong. Who knows. yeah, like Goldie Hawn, Euro has had better days than this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 good god mitch, delete that thing. I'll charge you with felony ocular assualt. GEFS has been steady with the lr look. EPS has been bouncing much more. However, EPS is better on average. Model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 yeah, like Goldie Hawn, Euro has had better days than this year Isn't she younger than you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution. ETA: Honestly I feel like the NAM is catching on pretty well... its gradually moving toward less stream separation and better timing. I feel like so many people these days don't look at h5 or h3 anymore and just focus on the sfc when trying to forecast, other than looking at h5 to say thats a nice vort, good position etc etc. Shortwave orientation, stream positioning, conservation of vorticity all matter as to the evolution of these systems. This so called "north trend" we are seeing this year is due to the fact models are not progressive enough with features and when it works out in our favor it is often due to timing, trough positioning and jet orientation. I am focussed on this period, because a more progressive solution actually lines up in our favor for a change, but right now the timing is off... still not off enough to be concerned. People will be shocked if this thing changes at the surface because it will be a drastic change, even though the change at h5 and h3 has been gradual. How much QPF on the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 No idea Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 if we can be north of the fook line...we can get a semi Pd3 type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Mount Holly AFD...highlights the uncertainty for next weekend- AT THIS TIME WE`RE NOT SURE OF ANYTHING FOR NEXT WEEKENDIN OUR AREA BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH MULTI MODEL INDICATIONS TOWARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,. THE TIGHT TEMPERATUREGRADIENT OVER OUR AREA CAN MEAN ANY PTYPE. FOR NOW WE RAN WITH THECOLDER GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES...LESSENING THE HOURLY FREQUENCYTHAT FREEZING RAIN IS MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS.UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE FORTHE DETAILS PRESENTED IN THE 330 PM FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS came way north too, pretty close to getting snow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I wished happy hour tossed this solution out on friday and not sunday. outside looking in still but parts of the se get destroyed. that's kinda cool regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well either 18z GFS had too much to drink, or it is on something. Looks pretty close to snow in DC Of course this will make me want to take a peek at the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 yoda, on 26 Jan 2014 - 5:02 PM, said:Well either 18z GFS had too much to drink, or it is on something. Looks pretty close to snow in DC I'll take the latter. Actually gets me into some light snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well either 18z GFS had too much to drink, or it is on something. Looks pretty close to snow in DC Of course this will make me want to take a peek at the ensembles It gets the southern cut off fully involved.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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