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Late January - Early February Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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day 10 Euro puts a deep trough over Japan with another to follow

the east coast trough will return folks....I've been watching it all winter and except for a recent ridge which makes sense considering our wx, this has tele-connected very well this year

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012612!!/

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day 10 Euro puts a deep trough over Japan with another to follow

the east coast trough will return folks....I've been watching it all winter and except for a recent ridge which makes sense considering our wx, this has tele-connected very well this year

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012612!!/

Gefs starts lowering heights again  over the east coast post day 10. I'll believe it when I see it closer to day 7.

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These panels are pretty nice from 12z gefs. 

 

D12

 

post-2035-0-71574000-1390765708_thumb.jp

 

 

D16

 

post-2035-0-60563800-1390765725_thumb.jp

 

 

Heights are building into the western nao region through the end of the run. Good looks before d12 as well. Just wanted to point out where the gefs thinks were going. The look has been similar but improving through the last 4 GEFS runs. 

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looking at the Euro on Wunderground, it looks like the overrunning pattern we all envisioned over us and not the OBX

not an inch for us on Euro through 240 but it will change. EUro long range loves to amplify the SE ridge and Western trough

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The signal for Feb 3rd-6th is damn impressive. Don't worry about details yet, I'd almost risk my account (at the enjoyment of others) that there will be large storm at this timeframe, whether it is snow, ice, rain or all 3 is obviously yet TBD

yep, and Orh Wxman said it got even colder for them than the last run of EPS....colder for them I would gues would mean colder for us (not enough, I'm sure, but we're far enough away that every bit of cooling can still make a diff in the end)

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yep, and Orh Wxman said it got even colder for them than the last run of EPS....colder for them I would gues would mean colder for us (not enough, I'm sure, but we're far enough away that every bit of cooling can still make a diff in the end)

 

D8-10 is a good precip signal on the EPS means but temps are warm on the means also. 850's above freezing. Long ways to go. Overall, GEFS is much cooler in the d8-15 range. Much has to happen first so no worries.

 

Like Ji said, it's a byproduct of se ridging right up the coast. EPS may be right  or wrong. Who knows. 

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D8-10 is a good precip signal on the EPS means but temps are warm on the means also. 850's above freezing. Long ways to go. Overall, GEFS is much cooler in the d8-15 range. Much has to happen first so no worries.

 

Like Ji said, it's a byproduct of se ridging right up the coast. EPS may be right  or wrong. Who knows. 

yeah, like Goldie Hawn, Euro has had better days than this year

post-821-0-11374200-1390771583_thumb.jpg

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seriously? then whats the point of discussing this? getting there by the wrong solution is just as good in my mind as not getting there at all... have to give it credit for the better phase but thats all you can give it credit for. Last storm, it actually got the synoptic pattern right... this one has some physics no-no's in the verbatim model solution.

ETA: Honestly I feel like the NAM is catching on pretty well... its gradually moving toward less stream separation and better timing. I feel like so many people these days don't look at h5 or h3 anymore and just focus on the sfc when trying to forecast, other than looking at h5 to say thats a nice vort, good position etc etc. Shortwave orientation, stream positioning, conservation of vorticity all matter as to the evolution of these systems. This so called "north trend" we are seeing this year is due to the fact models are not progressive enough with features and when it works out in our favor it is often due to timing, trough positioning and jet orientation.

I am focussed on this period, because a more progressive solution actually lines up in our favor for a change, but right now the timing is off... still not off enough to be concerned. People will be shocked if this thing changes at the surface because it will be a drastic change, even though the change at h5 and h3 has been gradual.

How much QPF on the CRAS?

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Mount Holly AFD...highlights the uncertainty for next weekend-

 

AT THIS TIME WE`RE NOT SURE OF ANYTHING FOR NEXT WEEKEND
IN OUR AREA BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH MULTI MODEL INDICATIONS TO
WARRANT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,. THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA CAN MEAN ANY PTYPE. FOR NOW WE RAN WITH THE
COLDER GFS PARTIAL THICKNESSES...LESSENING THE HOURLY FREQUENCY
THAT FREEZING RAIN IS MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS.

UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
THE DETAILS PRESENTED IN THE 330 PM FORECAST IS BELOW AVERAGE.

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